2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059094237831196672

[Gass3268]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

And we've gotten only 3 over the past week, and they are 7, 8, and 9, which pretty much lines up with what we've been seeing all cycle.

All I am really trying to say is I would feel quite a bit better if they were, say, 9, 10, and 11 instead of 7, 8, 9.

[Gass3268]

Are people really freaking out about a 1% decline at 538 and a +.03 R in the GCB average? I guess it is Atlas.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Are people really freaking out about a 1% decline at 538 and a +.03 R in the GCB average?

Well we needed some excuse to do one last “Dems in disarray” before Tuesday

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

Agreed. I think it will be many decades before Tennessee even thinks about electing a Democratic Senator again. Maybe in 2058 or 2066?

[Person Man]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

So it moved to the right by one seat?

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

Agreed. I think it will be many decades before Tennessee even thinks about electing a Democratic Senator again. Maybe in 2058 or 2066?

It's about as likely as Bredesen getting in or them NEVER voting Democrat again. Even Massachusetts is voting for a Republican. I'd say it would take a sustained existential crisis for it to finally flip provided there is anything left to flip.

[Calthrina950]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

So it moved to the right by one seat?

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

Agreed. I think it will be many decades before Tennessee even thinks about electing a Democratic Senator again. Maybe in 2058 or 2066?

It's about as likely as Bredesen getting in or them NEVER voting Democrat again. Even Massachusetts is voting for a Republican. I'd say it would take a sustained existential crisis for it to finally flip provided there is anything left to flip.

That is my point. Tennessee could only just be 25% of the way through what may prove to be a century-long drought without Democratic Senators.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Guys, let's stop with the unskewing. Take this as a call for action to get as many Dems voting this Tuesday.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

So it moved to the right by one seat?

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

Agreed. I think it will be many decades before Tennessee even thinks about electing a Democratic Senator again. Maybe in 2058 or 2066?

It's about as likely as Bredesen getting in or them NEVER voting Democrat again. Even Massachusetts is voting for a Republican. I'd say it would take a sustained existential crisis for it to finally flip provided there is anything left to flip.

That is my point. Tennessee could only just be 25% of the way through what may prove to be a century-long drought without Democratic Senators.

Hmm, one could say the same about Alabama before Doug Jones..

[Xing]

Guys, let's stop with the unskewing. Take this as a call for action to get as many Dems voting this Tuesday.

I actually agree about the second sentence, though there should never not be a call for action to get people to vote.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

The notion that internals by nature show a candidate in a more favorable position than in reality is completely untrue - at least not internals from pollsters who actually want to be of use to their clients and continue working with credibility in the field.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059146417426575361

[Gass3268]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

Oh, this model by YouGov gives Dems a 89% of winning the House.

[Aurelio21]

In this realignment election, the GCB is only confusing. The CBS tracker /WaPost /NBC Survey of the ca. 70 CDs in play is far more important.

The DNC has tapped into one of DJ Trumps traps: Calling out his and FoxNews' not-really-truths does not help. The "caravan"(lepry, small pox etc are extinct, and islamic terrorist are still trying to learn the "Teleport Spell" from Golbez from FFIV;-) )  is a symbolic scapegoat on which DJ Trump demonstrates his leadership skills. It is rather a totem. This "totem dance" makes your fellow americans who go a long with their guts rather than an model according to the enlightenment.

Thus he has repositioned great parts of his electoral alliance and thus narrowed the margin of error for the Democrats and reasonable Republicans/the former Elite of the Republicans.

In general:
And if the DNC would really understand that they are playing along with Mr Trump's script by calling him a liar on the topic "caravan"/ discounting the fear of social degradation in rural areas /WWC left behind, they would do something very differently. To be clear, they suck at connecting emotionally with their (former) constituents and thus leaving the space for him.

They should acknowledge the Problem(even if it does not exist), but A) strengthening the border patrol by doubling the number, and at the same time for keeping their affluent base donating some of their abundant Money from the PACs for a humanitarian solution together with the mexican government. Not taking the immigrants into the US but help in Honduras. And taking out in the same way smear artist like Jacob Wohl and James O'Keefe (painting them as anti-social).

This tightening in the polls / losing the rural vote for at least 2 Generations demonstrates an inability to see what connection with the voters means. Most people sublimate their fears on other topics, and claiming rationally that they do not exist is as usefull as explaining a child that the monster under his bed does not exist.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

[Ebsy]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Really depends on vote distribution in competitive districts. Most prognosticators would tell you somewhere between 5-7 points.

[Gass3268]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

[Devout Centrist]

Guys, let's stop with the unskewing. Take this as a call for action to get as many Dems voting this Tuesday.

Yes, I encourage Hofoid to log off and go knock on doors

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guys, let's stop with the unskewing. Take this as a call for action to get as many Dems voting this Tuesday.

Yes, I encourage Hofoid to log off and go knock on doors

Until 2020.

[Yank2133]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You act like Republicans are operating in good faith here. Democrats already offered the Trump administration funds for more border security and Trump said no.

[Person Man]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

I'd believe that. There would be rioting on the streets, not just sore loser marches if a party was elected with a -7% margin. I am pretty sure that has NEVER happened in the history of the United States.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

Am I missing something? Nate has it at 8.1%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/