2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1056433923817799685

In line with a National margin of D+8, as Florida voted 9 points to the right of the nation in 2016 House races.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Democrats also won by 8 points in 2006. What I don’t understand is why 2006 wasn’t a worse year for Republicans when Bush was more unpopular than Trump, the economy was in worse shape than it is right now, and people were dying in Iraq. It seems kinda bizarre that Democrats might do better this year than in 2006.

LMAO at assuming a Dem collapse can't happen in the last week...this year. 
Both parties have a very high floor. In 2006 there were tons of polls showing Democrats up 15-20 points on the generic ballot, then Republicans surged at the very last second for literally no reason. Most likely because a win that big was never possible under any circumstances.

Why did they surge in 2006 but not this year? I get that Democrats hate Trump more than Bush, but overall, conditions were still more unfavorable for the GOP in 2006 than this year.

Part of the change is dems have a much more reliable group in their coalition now: strong support from college educated whites.

Good point, yeah. I guess that explains part of it.

The Dems' lead was a lot gaudier in 2006 than it is now, so simply political gravity re-asserting itself I would assume.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I read that much of the country - especially more competitive states - is going to have very bad weather on Election Day, which usually helps Republicans.

I'm wondering if Russia is interfering with our weather somehow. I wouldn't put anything past them.

Governor Gillespie is still thankful for those rains in NoVa.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Guys, let's stop with the unskewing. Take this as a call for action to get as many Dems voting this Tuesday.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

So it moved to the right by one seat?

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

That isn't good for him at all. The perception on here seems to be that a campaign's internals try to skew the results in as favorable a manner for them as possible, and that would be true here. If Bredesen's people can only manage to show him tied with Blackburn, that must mean he is actually trailing by ~3-4 points. And most recent polls show Blackburn up by mid to high single digits. People on here need to accept that he's done for.

My guess is for a 2006 redux in Tennessee.

Agreed. I think it will be many decades before Tennessee even thinks about electing a Democratic Senator again. Maybe in 2058 or 2066?

It's about as likely as Bredesen getting in or them NEVER voting Democrat again. Even Massachusetts is voting for a Republican. I'd say it would take a sustained existential crisis for it to finally flip provided there is anything left to flip.

That is my point. Tennessee could only just be 25% of the way through what may prove to be a century-long drought without Democratic Senators.

Hmm, one could say the same about Alabama before Doug Jones..

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Someone explain to me why people have been begging for high quality polling for weeks, only to whine and unskew when such quality polling confirms that the House isn't happening for Ds.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Ipsos/Reuters weekly, week ending Nov. 4, 408 LV

D: 50 (+1)
R: 40 (-3)

This is the pollster that's been typically bearish on Democrats this year, right?

Perhaps somewhat bearish, but on the whole they've been really bouncy. 

Wow, it's almost like all of the movement in the polls is just noise and these are all going to cancel each other out.

Ipsos is a low quality pollster, I recently learned. It's not gonna balance out NBC nor will it balance out ABC.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

Seriously. I know Atlas loves to overreact to things, but this is absolutely ridiculous.

People are having a hard time coping with the fact that the megagigaultratidalwave they've all been expecting might not happen.

Yep, and they're resorting to insulting me rather than acknowledging that the tide is heading the other way when it counts the most.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Silver and Wasserman have both compared 2018 to 2012 and I think that is a good comparison.

Yep, the majority in the House will maintain it, while the challenger to the Senate will fall short...just like in 2012.