2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

Des Moines Register / Selzer poll for IA congressional districts (GCB):

Iowa (statewide): D+6

IA-01 (Blum-R): D+7

IA-02 (Loebsack-D): D+12

IA-03 (Young-R): D+9

IA-04 (King-R): R+4

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https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/11/03/iowa-poll-suggests-closer-contest-steve-king-2018-jd-scholten-midterms-election-chances-vote-said/1872299002

Oh my Young is doing much worse than I expected, and this is another poll corroborating that King may be in real trouble. A 4-0 D Iowa delegation would be pretty amazing(and amusing) after 2016 too.

[Tender Branson]

NM-01 and NM-02 (Research & Polling Inc. / ABQ Journal):

   

https://www.abqjournal.com/1241736/herrell-torres-small-locked-in-tight-race-for-congress.html

[Sestak]

Des Moines Register / Selzer poll for IA congressional districts (GCB):

Iowa (statewide): D+6

IA-01 (Blum-R): D+7

IA-02 (Loebsack-D): D+12

IA-03 (Young-R): D+9

IA-04 (King-R): R+4

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https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/11/03/iowa-poll-suggests-closer-contest-steve-king-2018-jd-scholten-midterms-election-chances-vote-said/1872299002

Axne outpacing Finkenauer?
Wut

[Ebsy]

Small subsamples.

[Person Man]

In fact, I have seen them narrow every GCB ballot in midterm elections on Sean Trende's website.

[Brittain33]

Axne outpacing Finkenauer?
Wut

College degree voters swing

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

Except that Bredesen's internals also show the race tied. I guess it's noteworthy that Blackburn's pollsters aren't blowing sunshine up her ass with inflated leads like some other pollsters are (e.g. Cruz's pollsters saying he's up 9)

[Tender Branson]

CBS will have their final "Battleground tracker" today, but I guess this will only be their House forecast and no new Senate/Governor polls.

[Person Man]

CBS will have their final "Battleground tracker" today, but I guess this will only be their House forecast and no new Senate/Governor polls.

You mean what is happening in the 60 GOP districts and 10 Dem districts?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Patrick_J_Egan/status/1059061296304398337

[Yank2133]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

[Virginiá]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

-2 since last poll (D+9)

All these polls are converging on that DailyKos venture "Civiqs" too:

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2018?annotations=true&net=false&uncertainty=true

I was curious if that was any good, so at the very least it won't be any worse than most of the other last-minute pollsters.

[Gass3268]

NBC/WSJ Final poll is D+7

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/democrats-hold-7-point-edge-final-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n931001

Democrats have double digit leads with seniors, independents, and over 20 point leads with whites with a college degree.

[Gass3268]

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

[Comrade Funk]

Are Independents THAT undecided?  I find it hard to believe 42% are undecided/third party.

[Yank2133]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

[Gass3268]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

https://twitter.com/Patrick_J_Egan/status/1059061296304398337

[KingSweden]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

NYT/Siena has been considerably friendlier to Democrats lately compared to just a few weeks ago.

That said, it’s reasonable to think gains are more around 28-30 seats rather than 38-40

[Yank2133]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way  

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

Ah yes, the ABC poll that has historically gone from high digit lead to single digit lead is a sign of a collapse. This is weak stuff from you. Try to troll better.

[Gass3268]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

NYT/Siena has been considerably friendlier to Democrats lately compared to just a few weeks ago.

That said, it’s reasonable to think gains are more around 28-30 seats rather than 38-40

I could be wrong, but looking at the individual district polling data improving for Democrats and those battleground polls staying consistently between 3-5 points, is that Republicans might be extending their leads in their safe districts.

[KingSweden]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

NYT/Siena has been considerably friendlier to Democrats lately compared to just a few weeks ago.

That said, it’s reasonable to think gains are more around 28-30 seats rather than 38-40

I could be wrong, but looking at the individual district polling data improving for Democrats and those battleground polls staying consistently between 3-5 points, is that Republicans might be extending their leads in their safe districts.

Sure, not an unreasonble take. But it’s also not unreasonble to think a D+8 GCB gets you closer to 30 than 40

[Virginiá]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

Ah yes, the ABC poll that has historically gone from high digit lead to single digit lead is a sign of a collapse. This is weak stuff from you. Try to troll better.

And if he wants to reference 2006/2010 & ABC/WaPo's poll, then he should acknowledge that the out party over-performed that poll by 2.8 and 1.9 points, respectively. The average of those two would be pretty significant in this case.

[wbrocks67]

The ABC/Wapo poll has Men only +1 for GOP. If that's truly happening, Dems will win by more than 7.

The NBC/WSJ has Dems winning Seniors by +14. If that's truly happening, Dems will win be more than 7.

Meanwhile, the NBC/WSJ has a joke of an Indies sample.

Not to mention, the punditry is all "Dems in disarray! GOP surge" despite the fact that the GOP can barely crack 43-44% in poll after poll. That is 7% undecided in both. Undecideds, like in 2016, usually break for the party out of power.