2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[KingSweden]

Apologies if this has already been posted:

MT-AL: U of Montana, Oct. 10-18, 607 RV

Williams (D) 45.8
Gianforte (R, inc) 45.3
Swanson (L) 1.8

Folks are nuts if they still have this as Lean R.

Lean R still seems right to me.  The same poll has Tester up 10.  I feel very good about Tester's chance to win, but not by that much.  I wouldn't be surprised on election day to see both Tester and Gianforte win by about 5.

This is my take too.

[KingSweden]

Hmm, closer than I would have expected, I get that it's an internal, but even a Walden win by low tweens to teens is really underwhelming.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1055926665522696195

If Walden is under 55 it would be monumental

[KingSweden]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

+13?!

Makes me skeptical of the whole endeavor...

[KingSweden]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

I could see a bump from, let’s say, the average of 8 to around 10-11

[KingSweden]

PRRI, Sep. 17 - Oct. 1, 2509 adults (change from last month)

D: 57 (+13)
R: 39 (+4)

Note: 538 is showing this as 48/39, but the PDF clearly has 57 rather than 48.

David Lauter from the LA Times, is saying on twitter that the bump coincides with the bomb scare and the Pittsburgh shooting. I would like to see two or three GCB polls from other outlets first before I agree or disagree.

It makes sense for me. The aftermath of Charlottesville was one of Trump's lowest points. The middle hates chaos and violence; they swung against Hillary Clinton because the Comey letter promised more investigations and mess from the beginning. The question is whether this carries through to Election Day or if something changes the subject.

It's pretty clear Fox want's to change the subject, they are already back talking about the caravan.

But even if Fox does, aren't most, if not almost all, of their viewers already locked in for the Republicans?

And some R-leaning Indys who will probably vote R in the end

[KingSweden]

VA-07 Wason Center: Spanberger +1

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Oct-29-CD7-Report-Final.pdf

This is going to be a super close race

[KingSweden]

D+17 is clearly a junk poll. Again, Rasmussen seems to be the only one that isn't mediocre and they only have it at D+3. Treat all the other GCB polls as outliers. It's possible the actual vote will be something like R+1 at this point.

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html#polls

I'm sorry my fellow Democrats can't realize what is actually happening, the Democrats are going to massively underperform the polls like 2016. We'll be lucky if we pick up anymore than 10 seats, I tbqh won't be surprised to see us lose seats.

Yep, it must be pretty awful from your side's perspective. I recommend investing in cake and wine or whatever to prepare for November 6

I've already resigned to losing, I scheduled a week off my normal work to mourn in private, I quit my campaign job and left a note saying this is effortless. I want to mentally prepare myself before the inevitable.

Dude stop this isn’t fair, he can’t tell you’re trolling him

[KingSweden]

Change has been right what, once? I’d take their numbers with skepticism irrespective of who they find ahead

[KingSweden]

Considering how little polling we've gotten out of Indiana, IN-05 +5 Donnelly  and IN-09 -9 Donnelly is not what I was expecting.

Why what did you expect?

[KingSweden]

Get out the Nuclear Elmos everybody. This is a big one.

PA-11 (Susquehanna):
Lloyd Smucker (R) 50
Jess King (D) 46

https://www.abc27.com/news/politics/election/poll-us-rep-smucker-holds-narrow-lead-over-democrat-king/1562382601

A Susquehanna poll, no less...

[KingSweden]

Wasn’t their last August poll during Cohenfort?

Wish they polled more often

[KingSweden]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

NYT/Siena has been considerably friendlier to Democrats lately compared to just a few weeks ago.

That said, it’s reasonable to think gains are more around 28-30 seats rather than 38-40

[KingSweden]

Hmm, the quality pollsters come out, and just like 2006/2010, looking like the lead collapsed at the end. With gerrymandering being what it is, I'm betting the House isn't gonna go the Dems' way 

Of course you are.

Prove me wrong with data and numbers instead of insults. All I see are former double digit leads collapsing to mid-single digits.

NYT/Siena has been considerably friendlier to Democrats lately compared to just a few weeks ago.

That said, it’s reasonable to think gains are more around 28-30 seats rather than 38-40

I could be wrong, but looking at the individual district polling data improving for Democrats and those battleground polls staying consistently between 3-5 points, is that Republicans might be extending their leads in their safe districts.

Sure, not an unreasonble take. But it’s also not unreasonble to think a D+8 GCB gets you closer to 30 than 40

[KingSweden]

If y’all are freaking out over one percentage point hanged in the GCB, I can’t imagine the whiplash you’ll show on Election Night. Fortunately I won’t be on Atlas at all that day. You can only take so many hottakes

I mean the server will probably crash again so none of us will be on Atlas

[KingSweden]

Here's a more serious House prediction I came up with. A slight Democratic majority is definitely possible, assuming polling is mostly accurate. I'm skeptical of the idea that Democrats will overperform polling, so I doubt a decently sized D majority is in the works.

The Senate could end up being 50D-50R if polling is right on point, but we'll have to see.

Hedging our bets, I see

[KingSweden]

Hedging our bets, I see

please vote Republican on November 6

Also....Rasmussen finally gave us our first R+something poll, but I dunno...it seems like an outlier to me. I'm scared guys.

[KingSweden]

How do I fix this GIF I posted ^^?

[KingSweden]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Gallup had it at D+7 back in '06...

*rubs chin*