2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cisneros trails Generic R in NRCC intrnal:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/07/09/calif_dem_who_flipped_gop_seat_in_18_trails_in_new_poll__140739.html

Salt to taste.

NRCC chair has already endorsed Generic R.

[Brittain33]

Some GOP fundraising numbers in competitive districts:

https://mobile.twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1148636558557421568

Impressive numbers... looks like NJ-7 has potential to be the costliest race in the nation... but I'm curious if any of them are self-funders. McCaul is extremely wealthy.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1148916419343638531?s=19

I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1148897143731761154

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

As it should be. CA 45/49 look to be lost for a generation.

With CA-48, they could use the "Rohrabacher who?" cover.

 CA-39 would be a prime pickup if 'Generic R' ran rather than Young "Dems totally stole the vote" Kim


EDIT: Probably should've said "prime pickup opportunity"

[Gass3268]

I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

As it should be. CA 45/49 look to be lost for a generation.

With CA-48, they could use the "Rohrabacher who?" cover.

 CA-39 would be a prime pickup if 'Generic R' ran rather than Young "Dems totally stole the vote" Kim

Given the demographic makeup of CA-39, I have to imagine that it won't be easier to get the seat back in a Presidential year.

[Gracile]

I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

As it should be. CA 45/49 look to be lost for a generation.

With CA-48, they could use the "Rohrabacher who?" cover.

 CA-39 would be a prime pickup if 'Generic R' ran rather than Young "Dems totally stole the vote" Kim

Given the demographic makeup of CA-39, I have to imagine that it won't be easier to get the seat back in a Presidential year.

Yeah, I'm not sure why people are acting like CA-39 is likely to flip back. It is a majority-minority seat after all, and I doubt the presidential year demographics will be favorable at all to the GOP.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

As it should be. CA 45/49 look to be lost for a generation.

With CA-48, they could use the "Rohrabacher who?" cover.

 CA-39 would be a prime pickup if 'Generic R' ran rather than Young "Dems totally stole the vote" Kim

Given the demographic makeup of CA-39, I have to imagine that it won't be easier to get the seat back in a Presidential year.

Yeah, I'm not sure why people are acting like CA-39 is likely to flip back. It is a majority-minority seat after all, and I doubt the presidential year demographics will be favorable at all to the GOP.

I'm acting like CA-39 will be a closer race than the 45/49, not that it would flip back.

Of the CA seats, I believe CA-48 to be the only chance of a legitimate GOP pickup at this point.

Again, if Young Kim stands as the top GOP contender in CA-39, they're just begging for a worse performance.

[Young Conservative]

John James raises $1.5 million in 3 weeks, but headlines only say Peters out-raised him. (Seems biased)

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/07/11/peters-leads-gop-challenger-james-early-fundraising/1700727001/

Other Republican numbers:

Michelle Steel (CA-48) Raises $535k

Bill Hightower (AL-01) Raises $395k

Terry Neese (OK-05) Raises $185k and self funds 350k

Wesley Hunt (TX-07) Raises 500k

Ted Cruz raises $1.2 million, despite being off cycle and plans to be “heavily involved” in 2020 down-ballot

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-score/2019/07/11/democrats-top-5-horde-donations-678438

Some Democratic numbers:

Harley Rouda (CA-48) Raised $774k

Lizzie Panell Fletcher (TX-07) Raised $565k

Some  of these numbers are from officially twitter accounts, didn’t want to link them all.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

YouGov has the Dems leading the 2020 GCB by 9 points-

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1149135341170900994?s=21

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1149330851282522117

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

4 Romney Clinton Districts and 1 Obama Clinton District in that list. FL-26 really does not belong in literally any definition of a swing seat in 2020.

[Los Angeles Swag Boss]

Ted Terry (Mayor of Clarkston, GA and Queer Eye participant) just announced he was running for GA-Sen.

Will be an interesting primary.

Teresa Tomlinson (GA-SEN) raised only $500K since she first announced her campaign. Please save us, Stacey Abrams.

[Politician]

GA-06: Handel up 4 in a NRCC internal.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VoKO_YxzbQaRHc-Z441iKtAiO2rLk-Ym/view

[Gracile]

CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html

Oh please.

[DaWN]

CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today

[Politician]

CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html

Doubt

[Oryxslayer]

CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html

Doubt

Actually makes sense. 2018 showed that Hispanics, which are about 80% of this districts democratic voters, activate in the last 6 weeks of the campaign. So among everyone else...of course Valadao leads. I do think the dems need a better guy here than Cox, but the prominent state legislators arn't throwing their hat into the ring so I guess Cox is staying on for team Blue.

[Gracile]

And another one -

IA-03: NRCC internal shows Cindy Axne trailing a "named Republican" (probably David Young) by 6 points

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1149698563925893121

https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/680079/nrcc-poll-axne-trails-gop-opponent-by-6

[Woody]

These internal polls are devastating to the democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These internal polls are devastating to the democrats.

LOL

[Brittain33]

These internal polls are devastating to the democrats.

LOL

He is not good at this.

[Duke of York]

These internal polls are devastating to the democrats.

I'm very skeptical when the generic ballot shows 9 percent. And this far individual district polls means very little

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems aren't gonna take any hits in Cali or NY. NJ-7 with Kean is an R pickup