2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Politician]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

Golden literally won while Moody was on the ballot.

[S019]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

Golden literally won while Moody was on the ballot.

D+8.6 year running against a Wall Street banker caricature, he's done in any reasonably competitive year, as long, as we don't nominate an idiot like Eric Brakey, which I would not put completely out of the realm of possibility for Republican primary voters

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

I mean, there were clearly plenty of them in 2018, so...  

[S019]

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

[Politician]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

I mean, there were clearly plenty of them in 2018, so...  

It's a waste of time trying t argue with him. He's convinced Golden has a 0% chance of winning regardless of what happens because "muh D+9 year" and "muh Trump coattails"

[S019]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

I mean, there were clearly plenty of them in 2018, so...  

It's a waste of time trying t argue with him. He's convinced Golden has a 0% chance of winning regardless of what happens because "muh D+9 year" and "muh Trump coattails"

He can win if Reps nominate a Moore-tier candidate, like Eric Brakey, which I would not put completely out of the realm of possibility

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

IceSpear and PNM kept repeating something until it became an Atlas meme, maybe if I start saying it too then people will think it was my idea.  Yes, this is what you sound like

[S019]

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

IceSpear and PNM kept repeating something until it became an Atlas meme, maybe if I start saying it too then people will think it was my idea.  Yes, this is what you sound like

They are right about polarization, though, but apparently there are lots of ticket splitters for Democrats in a year that Trump and Collins should both easily carry ME-02. Seats trending in the opposite direction, like IA-01 and ME-02, are lost causes for Democrats, especially ME-02. Same is true for Republican chances in seats like VA-10 and CA-49, those are not going back to the GOP

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

IceSpear and PNM kept repeating something until it became an Atlas meme, maybe if I start saying it too then people will think it was my idea.  Yes, this is what you sound like

They are right about polarization, though, but apparently there are lots of ticket splitters for Democrats in a year that Trump and Collins should both easily carry ME-02. Seats trending in the opposite direction, like IA-01 and ME-02, are lost causes for Democrats, especially ME-02. Same is true for Republican chances in seats like VA-10 and CA-49, those are not going back to the GOP

Such lost causes that Democrats represent the districts in Congress

[Politician]

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

IceSpear and PNM kept repeating something until it became an Atlas meme, maybe if I start saying it too then people will think it was my idea.  Yes, this is what you sound like

They are right about polarization, though, but apparently there are lots of ticket splitters for Democrats in a year that Trump and Collins should both easily carry ME-02. Seats trending in the opposite direction, like IA-01 and ME-02, are lost causes for Democrats, especially ME-02. Same is true for Republican chances in seats like VA-10 and CA-49, those are not going back to the GOP

Such lost causes that Democrats represent the districts in Congress

And they won them in the last midterm when 2016 trends started to trickle downballot hard.

And yet Atlas mocks me when I suggest that people unironically believe 2016 trends are irreversible.

[S019]

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

IceSpear and PNM kept repeating something until it became an Atlas meme, maybe if I start saying it too then people will think it was my idea.  Yes, this is what you sound like

They are right about polarization, though, but apparently there are lots of ticket splitters for Democrats in a year that Trump and Collins should both easily carry ME-02. Seats trending in the opposite direction, like IA-01 and ME-02, are lost causes for Democrats, especially ME-02. Same is true for Republican chances in seats like VA-10 and CA-49, those are not going back to the GOP

Such lost causes that Democrats represent the districts in Congress

The GOP represents GA-07, therefore GA-07 is Safe R, this is what you sound like

There were lots of Obama/Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gardner/Obama voters in 2014, too. Yes, this is what you sound like

IceSpear and PNM kept repeating something until it became an Atlas meme, maybe if I start saying it too then people will think it was my idea.  Yes, this is what you sound like

They are right about polarization, though, but apparently there are lots of ticket splitters for Democrats in a year that Trump and Collins should both easily carry ME-02. Seats trending in the opposite direction, like IA-01 and ME-02, are lost causes for Democrats, especially ME-02. Same is true for Republican chances in seats like VA-10 and CA-49, those are not going back to the GOP

Such lost causes that Democrats represent the districts in Congress

And they won them in the last midterm when 2016 trends started to trickle downballot hard.

And yet Atlas mocks me when I suggest that people unironically believe 2016 trends are irreversible.

D+8.6 year, how many times, do I have to say this

[MT Treasurer]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

He’s running in a district that voted for him and Angus King and Shawn Moody in the same year; and IIRC, Moody only narrowly carried it against a Democrat with little to no appeal to the district. While ME-02 is pretty clearly trending Republican, it has also been a fairly incumbent-friendly district for a long time now, which is an underrated reason why Poliquin barely lost it in a wave year and only after RCV. Even if we assume that Golden only has like a 35-40% chance of winning reelection (that’s probably being fairly generous to Republicans given how weak their bench appears to be here), that’s a lot better than the 15-20% chance you’d have of holding an open House seat without Golden. I also strongly doubt that Golden’s 2018 strategy in a congressional seat like ME-02 would have been easily replicable in a statewide race against someone like Collins. Would he have run as a moderate Democrat touting his bipartisanship and work for Collins in ME-02 and simultaneously as a progressive Democrat exposing Collins’s fake moderate image in ME-01?

[lfromnj]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

He’s running in a district that voted for him and Angus King and Shawn Moody in the same year; and IIRC, Moody only narrowly carried it against a Democrat with little to no appeal to the district. While ME-02 is pretty clearly trending Republican, it has also been a fairly incumbent-friendly district for a long time now, which is an underrated reason why Poliquin barely lost it in a wave year and only after RCV. Even if we assume that Golden only has like a 35-40% chance of winning reelection (that’s probably being fairly generous to Republicans given how weak their bench appears to be here), that’s a lot better than the 15-20% chance you’d have of holding an open House seat without Golden. I also strongly doubt that Golden’s 2018 strategy in a congressional seat like ME-02 would have been easily replicable in a statewide race against someone like Collins. Would he have run as a moderate Democrat touting his bipartisanship and work for Collins in ME-02 and simultaneously as a progressive Democrat exposing Collins’s fake moderate image in ME-01?

I don't think Golden's doomed in 2020. But for him to win in 2020 will mean a Democrat is president which means he is doomed in 2022 ala Mcsally.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Golden running for reelection rather than Senate is definitely good news for Democrats. I doubt he would have been the ideal Democrat to run against Collins, and he won’t be as easy to beat in ME-02 as many people are making it out to be.

Are you joking? So he can run in  a seat that voted for Trump by 10 points and voted for Shawn Moody? He's may as well start writing his concession speech. He would have  been able to prevent bleeding in rural areas that we need to win statewide. A normal "resistance" democrat will get walloped in rural areas.

Oh, it voted for Moody, Likely R, bordering on Safe

Might as well make a Collins/Trump/Moody voter for Golden username

I mean, there were clearly plenty of them in 2018, so...  

It's a waste of time trying t argue with him. He's convinced Golden has a 0% chance of winning regardless of what happens because "muh D+9 year" and "muh Trump coattails"

He can win if Reps nominate a Moore-tier candidate, like Eric Brakey, which I would not put completely out of the realm of possibility

Woah woah woah, I dislike Brakey just as much as any other loyal democrat, but let’s not go around associating him with being a pedophile tier candidate, that’s too nasty dude.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The House is Lean Democratic at the moment, and I wouldn't underestimate, Dems winning the House, again, this includes Golden holding onto his seat.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1131938253970366465

Not a good look for a congressman who only won by a few points in 2018 in a district that's zooming left.

[Politician]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

[lfromnj]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

They are way too optimistic on some newly blue seats reverting to form (GA-06, NJ-07) and overestimating Peterson’s and JVD’s position. Generally not like them to be Charlie Cook-tier

The mods are all Never Trumper/Trump skeptic elitists and in denial about the Trump era. They still believe that the GOP is still competitive in areas like Texas HD 134.

[smoltchanov]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

They are way too optimistic on some newly blue seats reverting to form (GA-06, NJ-07) and overestimating Peterson’s and JVD’s position. Generally not like them to be Charlie Cook-tier

The mods are all Never Trumper/Trump skeptic elitists and in denial about the Trump era. They still believe that the GOP is still competitive in areas like Texas HD 134.

In fact - it is. HD-134 is represented by Republican Sarah Davis in legislature. It's another question - "which Republican can win HD-134"?

[lfromnj]

RRH out with new House ratings: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/05/25/rrh-elections-may-2019-house-ratings/

They are way too optimistic on some newly blue seats reverting to form (GA-06, NJ-07) and overestimating Peterson’s and JVD’s position. Generally not like them to be Charlie Cook-tier

The mods are all Never Trumper/Trump skeptic elitists and in denial about the Trump era. They still believe that the GOP is still competitive in areas like Texas HD 134.

In fact - it is. HD-134 is represented by Republican Sarah Davis in legislature. It's another question - "which Republican can win HD-134"?

Im talking on a federal level. Clearly WV state house districts are still competetive.

[Gracile]

SC-01:

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1133369879694839809

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IA-02: Rita Hart (D) gets endorsements from a number of Democratic leaders

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/1131218979635257344

Seems like she's trying to clear the field.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Would Cocaine Mitch retire if the GOP loses the Senate in 2020?

[smoltchanov]

Mace is usually characterized as "conservative firebrand". District (SC-01) is, undoubtely, conservative, but, if i remmeber correctly, doesn't especially likes firebrands..

[morgieb]

Mace is usually characterized as "conservative firebrand". District (SC-01) is, undoubtely, conservative, but, if i remmeber correctly, doesn't especially likes firebrands..

Yeah I think had Sanford held on in the primary he'd have won. Or got primaried by a more moderate candidate. It's a reasonably well-educated district after all IIRC.

[Zaybay]

Would Cocaine Mitch retire if the GOP loses the Senate in 2020?

Well, the thing is he would likely not know. He is up for reelection in 2020, and I kinda doubt he just suddenly retires and creates a special election.