2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

* Tosses a crumb to Antonio *

HarrisX, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, 5000 RV including 3167 LV

RV: D 44, R 37

LV: D 50, R 42 (last week: 49/42)

I mean, it's Harris, but yeah, that's something.

It didn't move the needle at all in the 538 tracker.

[Hindsight was 2020]

* Tosses a crumb to Antonio *

HarrisX, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, 5000 RV including 3167 LV

RV: D 44, R 37

LV: D 50, R 42 (last week: 49/42)

You now it’s amazing how despite all the noise and hot takes that the polls have been really consistent with a dem 7-9 point lead

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I read that much of the country - especially more competitive states - is going to have very bad weather on Election Day, which usually helps Republicans.

I'm wondering if Russia is interfering with our weather somehow. I wouldn't put anything past them.

Governor Gillespie is still thankful for those rains in NoVa.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

* Tosses a crumb to Antonio *

HarrisX, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, 5000 RV including 3167 LV

RV: D 44, R 37

LV: D 50, R 42 (last week: 49/42)

God, not ANOTHER Harris poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

* Tosses a crumb to Antonio *

HarrisX, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, 5000 RV including 3167 LV

RV: D 44, R 37

LV: D 50, R 42 (last week: 49/42)

God, not ANOTHER Harris poll.

It should be noted that HarrisX and Harris Interactive are not the same firm, although they do share some common ownership.

[Calthrina950]

CO-03 (JMC):

Tipton (R) 46
Mitsch Bush (D) 41

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Colorado-CD-3-Executive-Summary.pdf

Tossup.

More like Lean Republican. Tipton is favored, but he does not possess a secure lead. If things really go well for Democrats, Mitsch Bush could win.

[wbrocks67]

* Tosses a crumb to Antonio *

HarrisX, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, 5000 RV including 3167 LV

RV: D 44, R 37

LV: D 50, R 42 (last week: 49/42)

God, not ANOTHER Harris poll.

It should be noted that HarrisX and Harris Interactive are not the same firm, although they do share some common ownership.

Can we just be done with all Rasmussens and all Harris's because it's becoming very confusing

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Utah pollster Dan Jones has passed away.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900040085/utah-leaders-former-students-mourn-passing-of-political-icon-dan-jones.html

RIP

[ON Progressive]

CO-03 (JMC):

Tipton (R) 46
Mitsch Bush (D) 41

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Colorado-CD-3-Executive-Summary.pdf

Tossup.

More like Lean Republican. Tipton is favored, but he does not possess a secure lead. If things really go well for Democrats, Mitsch Bush could win.

I'd agree, although I think tossup isn't totally unreasonable given the incumbent's at 46%.

[bestgtor22]

I don't believe Dems are up like 8% on the generic ballot and that is nonsense to gaslight. My guess is its around 3% and means the House going to the Dems is 50/50.

[Yank2133]

I don't believe Dems are up like 8% on the generic ballot and that is nonsense to gaslight. My guess is its around 3% and means the House going to the Dems is 50/50.

Based on what?

[McGovernForPrez]

I don't believe Dems are up like 8% on the generic ballot and that is nonsense to gaslight. My guess is its around 3% and means the House going to the Dems is 50/50.

Based on what?

The poll in his mind's eye of course.

[wesmoorenerd]

Utah pollster Dan Jones has passed away.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900040085/utah-leaders-former-students-mourn-passing-of-political-icon-dan-jones.html

How awful. I always appreciated his willingness to poll the races that nobody else would.

RIP to a great pollster.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Utah pollster Dan Jones has passed away.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900040085/utah-leaders-former-students-mourn-passing-of-political-icon-dan-jones.html

RIP

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't believe Dems are up like 8% on the generic ballot and that is nonsense to gaslight. My guess is its around 3% and means the House going to the Dems is 50/50.

The polls don't agree with you.  What's your basis for thinking they're that far off?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Remember VA 2017 election night, when a Republican posted that his model had Enron Ed up big? Sad!

[Holmes]

Remember VA 2017 election night, when a Republican posted that his model had Enron Ed up big? Sad!

Was that the same guy whose mind model had Moore winning on election night when the votes were coming in?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Remember VA 2017 election night, when a Republican posted that his model had Enron Ed up big? Sad!

Was that the same guy whose mind model had Moore winning on election night when the votes were coming in?

Are we talking about Larry Schweikart?

[Sestak]

Remember VA 2017 election night, when a Republican posted that his model had Enron Ed up big? Sad!

Was that the same guy whose mind model had Moore winning on election night when the votes were coming in?

Are we talking about Larry Schweikart?

I think he means Ben Kenobi, the Atlas poster.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember VA 2017 election night, when a Republican posted that his model had Enron Ed up big? Sad!

Was that the same guy whose mind model had Moore winning on election night when the votes were coming in?

Not sure about VA, but AL was Ben Kenobi, who has also predicted that the Republicans will gain seats in the House this year.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Not sure about VA, but AL was Ben Kenobi, who has also predicted that the Republicans will gain seats in the House this year.

Not too sure about this. I remember predicting the Democrats would gain seats in '94.

[Calthrina950]

CO-03 (JMC):

Tipton (R) 46
Mitsch Bush (D) 41

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Colorado-CD-3-Executive-Summary.pdf

Tossup.

More like Lean Republican. Tipton is favored, but he does not possess a secure lead. If things really go well for Democrats, Mitsch Bush could win.

I'd agree, although I think tossup isn't totally unreasonable given the incumbent's at 46%.

That is true. Early voting numbers in Colorado thus far have Republicans slightly ahead of Democrats, with independents turning in ballots at a higher rate than at this time in 2014. And since this particular poll has independent/unaffiliated voters in CO-03 leaning towards Republicans, it might be enough for Tipton to get by. Polis's strength at the top of the ticket, I think, will help to determine whether or not Democrats are able to pick up this seat.

[YE]

Mitsch Bush is one of my favorite candidates this cycle BTW

[Person Man]

I lived in her state house district for a while. I proudly voted for her in 2012.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?