2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gass3268]

There is gonna be a final Washington Post - ABC News Poll

My guess is you'll see it Sunday at midnight, before the morning show.

[Person Man]

So Saturday Night?

[psychprofessor]

New Jersey GCB, D +20 (56-36)
Bodes well for close suburban districts.

Trump approval: 37/62

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1102-statewide-poll-2-wfs.pdf

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

New Jersey GCB, D +20 (56-36)
Bodes well for close suburban districts.

Trump approval: 37/62

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1102-statewide-poll-2-wfs.pdf

By comparison, the actual congressional vote in NJ in 2016 was D+7.

[Brittain33]

New Jersey GCB, D +20 (56-36)
Bodes well for close suburban districts.

Trump approval: 37/62

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1102-statewide-poll-2-wfs.pdf

By comparison, the actual congressional vote in NJ in 2016 was D+7.

...and Gottheimer still won under those circumstances, which surprises me, but I guess that district has been more D since the last round of redistricting pulled it southeast.

[junior chįmp]

Thus is such a good article on why polling and models could be completely wrong this election year:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[psychprofessor]

New Jersey GCB, D +20 (56-36)
Bodes well for close suburban districts.

Trump approval: 37/62

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1102-statewide-poll-2-wfs.pdf

By comparison, the actual congressional vote in NJ in 2016 was D+7.

...and Gottheimer still won under those circumstances, which surprises me, but I guess that district has been more D since the last round of redistricting pulled it southeast.

Scott Garrett was a tea party Republican appealing to some rural areas of the district, but much of the Bergen county geography are wealthy, upscale suburbs.

[freepcrusher]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

[wbrocks67]

Trende is a total GOP hack. He tried playing the "both sides" card but his whole "I'm confused" act is ridiculous. He was trying to act is if Trump's approval is substantially better than W's 37%. Trump's is at about 40-42% right now. Statistically, not that much better. And Obama lost 63 seats when his approval was even higher than Trumps. He was basically looking for ways to somehow make this rosier for the GOP.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Des Moines Register/Selzer poll of Iowa coming out tomorrow.  Not sure if this is just the governor race or if it includes the House races as well.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Thus is such a good article on why polling and models could be completely wrong this election year:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Great article, thanks for posting.

[colincb]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

[Mehmentum]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

Yeah, keep in mind Kaine used to be mayor of Richmond.  He got a significant bump there in 2012.

[Virginiá]

Mayor I can understand, but county commissioner? Chairman, even. That seems like a relatively invisible job. I'm much more politically involved than most but I couldn't tell you what commissioners I've voted for before. Granted, it's a safe R county and so I don't care all that much, but still.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Both Democrats and Republicans at their highest point ever on the 538 tracker. Only 7.3% undecideds left.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Both Democrats and Republicans at their highest point ever on the 538 tracker. Only 7.3% undecideds left.

But the GCB average still includes almost no quality polls. We don't really have a good feel on what the latest GCB is and if it is breaking at all in either direction, because there is just no data. The last 10 polls on the 538 GCB are:

Harris Interactive
YouGov
Morning Consult
Ipsos
Marist College
Ipsos
Harris Interactive
USC Dornsife/LA Times
Harris Interactive
Lucid

There is only a single quality live phone poll there (Marist). It is just Harris Interactive etc literally flooding the zone. And do we really need 2 Ipsos polls? 1 would be MORE than enough.

Makes me sad, the live phone pollsters are REALLY letting us down this year. I guess it is just too expensive, response rates are too low. This is how polling dies.

[Yank2133]

Yeah, it is frustrating and it is detriment to forecasters, who get blasted when they are wrong even though they have to rely on some substandard polling for their models.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I agree it's a real shame. Hopefully we will get something, anything from the top tier of pollsters before Tuesday.

[wbrocks67]

Thus is such a good article on why polling and models could be completely wrong this election year:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Great article, thanks for posting.

I honestly forgot about VA 2017 and the polling error. And the kicker is, that the Reps still had great turnout that year. But the Dems had ROBUST turnout. Northam's 6 pt polling error was bigger than I remembered.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, I agree it's a real shame. Hopefully we will get something, anything from the top tier of pollsters before Tuesday.

I believe WaPo/ABC has one coming tomorrow.

[Brittain33]

Utah pollster Dan Jones has passed away.

https://www.deseretnews.com/article/900040085/utah-leaders-former-students-mourn-passing-of-political-icon-dan-jones.html

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I read that much of the country - especially more competitive states - is going to have very bad weather on Election Day, which usually helps Republicans.

I'm wondering if Russia is interfering with our weather somehow. I wouldn't put anything past them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

* Tosses a crumb to Antonio *

HarrisX, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, 5000 RV including 3167 LV

RV: D 44, R 37

LV: D 50, R 42 (last week: 49/42)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Silver has a good thread on the current state of the House (click to read the whole thread):

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1058727926508765185