CA-PPIC: Newsom +11
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 22, 2024, 04:13:35 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  CA-PPIC: Newsom +11
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: CA-PPIC: Newsom +11  (Read 1718 times)
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 25, 2018, 03:02:42 AM »
« edited: October 25, 2018, 01:18:56 PM by Interlocutor »

PPIC poll (Oct 12-21,  last poll was Sept 9-18)


Governor
Gavin Newsom:         49%   (-2)
John Cox:                 38%    (-1)
Undecided/No vote:   12%   (+2)


#NewsomUnder50 (Getting that out of the way)
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,639


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 25, 2018, 05:59:57 AM »

What is it with CA that their polls are consistently wonky? Is it that hard to poll?
Logged
Continential
The Op
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,579
Political Matrix
E: 1.10, S: -5.30

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 25, 2018, 06:16:42 AM »

What is it with CA that their polls are consistently wonky? Is it that hard to poll?
CA is big
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 25, 2018, 08:34:54 AM »

Junk poll!

Well, Cox might get 38%.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 25, 2018, 08:55:41 AM »

Cox is only losing because Trump is president/Trumpism. In a Clinton midterm, this would have flipped because Clinton midterm.
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,252
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 25, 2018, 09:58:29 AM »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 25, 2018, 10:26:24 AM »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.

Well, we'll see in 12 days. But something tells me you probably don't want to die on the "Newsom only wins by 11 points" hill, lol.

By the way, PPIC also said Obama would win California by 12 points when he won it by 23, so it would hardly be insane and unprecedented for them to have a big miss.
Logged
Coastal Elitist
Tea Party Hater
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,252
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.71, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 25, 2018, 10:29:21 AM »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.

Well, we'll see in 12 days. But something tells me you probably don't want to die on the "Newsom only wins by 11 points" hill, lol.

By the way, PPIC also said Obama would win California by 12 points when he won it by 23, so it would hardly be insane and unprecedented for them to have a big miss.
It's called undecideds. I doubt he only wins by 11. Again it's called undecideds. If 2/3 go to Newsom he still wins by like 16-17.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 25, 2018, 10:33:19 AM »

Do you say this about every poll you don't like. If anyone had looked at the crosstabs they would have said that the Emerson poll was junk and the USC/LA Times poll was done over a month so that should have also been called junk as well, but it wasn't because Newsom was up by 20.

This was done by the Public Policy Institute of California, which is basically the best polling company for California. To call it junk is like calling the Marquette poll of Wisconsin junk.

Anyways from looking at all these California polls NPP voters are all over the place, which makes me think that they are hard to poll, because some might not be as Independent as you might believe.

Well, we'll see in 12 days. But something tells me you probably don't want to die on the "Newsom only wins by 11 points" hill, lol.

By the way, PPIC also said Obama would win California by 12 points when he won it by 23, so it would hardly be insane and unprecedented for them to have a big miss.
It's called undecideds. I doubt he only wins by 11. Again it's called undecideds. If 2/3 go to Newsom he still wins by like 16-17.

Well yeah, that's what I said in my initial post. It wouldn't surprise me if Cox got 38%.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,033
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2018, 12:34:43 AM »

"Soft Tilt D" -Bagel, probably
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2018, 03:16:25 PM »


What are you talking about? Safe D, nothing to see here.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,825


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2018, 03:27:03 PM »

#NewsonUnder50
#CaliforniaGoingBackToIt'sReaganiteRoots
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,184
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 28, 2018, 04:07:06 AM »

Either this race is really closer than expected or these polls are complete nuts. The latter seems more likely. Newsom should break 60%.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.05 seconds with 14 queries.