AK-GOV (Ivan Moore): Dunleavy +4.6

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/Nat_Herz/status/1054826431413313536

[Politician]

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

[wesmoorenerd]

Interesting that Walker actively supporting Begich would actively hurt the latter.

Anyway, Safe R > Lean R, closer to Tossup than Likely.

[KingSweden]

Huh.

*Maybe* this will be a race.

[DaWN]

lol decimals

In all seriousness, if another poll confirms it's getting closer I'll move this race to Lean R, but I still have difficulty seeing Begich close the gap.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.

[MT Treasurer]

Dunleavy was never going to win a two-way race in a landslide, but I’d still call this Lean R, Dunleavy by 5 or 6.

[ON Progressive]

That seems about right. Lean R.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Ivan Moore tends to be dem biased so Likely R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems don't need AK, it's not redistricting, focus on GA and FL and OH

[MAINEiac4434]

D E C I M A L S

[Xing]

I may move this to Lean R, but if Dunleavy is this close to 50%, it's hard to see how he loses.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=201282.0

[Skye]

This being AK, I wouldn't rule out a Begich win. Though Walker's presence in the ballot may be his doom in a really close race.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.

Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If only.

[Badger]

Um, why are we talking about a purely hypothetical poll based on the premise that Walker dropped out and backed begich?  It's not like this is about to happen.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.

Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place.

By that logic no race is safe, because almost any candidate who got hit with a Roy Moore level scandal would lose.

[cinyc]

Dems don't need AK, it's not redistricting, focus on GA and FL and OH

State redistricting matters, too, you know.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

IceSpear certainly has some explaining to do.

Yeah, it's truly embarrassing to have to move this from safe R to a mere likely R.

Ideally, you should never have to change a Safe D/R rating - because it should honestly mean Safe. Safe even if you have the climate totally wrong. Safe even if there's a last minute scandal. For three way contests, Safe even if one candidate drops out. No one is perfect, and everyone has to change a Safe rating once in a while, but when such an event happens, it should cause you to fundamentally reexamine your prediction system and determine if the race-altering event was in any way remotely forseeable. And a candidate dropping out of this race was always a possibility. So you should not have had this at Safe in the first place.

By that logic no race is safe, because almost any candidate who got hit with a Roy Moore level scandal would lose.

Meh, I don't know. Moore vs. Jones was always going to be competitive - as shown by the 2012 supreme Court race, AL just has a profound dislike of Moore that doesn't really apply to any other Republican.