TX-SEN: (GBA) Cruz +4

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Cruz 50
Beto 46

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ECUTX18m1-102318-1.pdf


Also, they have the GCB in TX at:

49 R
47 D

[Politician]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Depends on the district races

[Beet]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

[Comrade Funk]

About expected.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Lyin Ted

[InheritTheWind]

I had no idea Nintendo was going into the polling business

[KingSweden]

I suspect this is close to the final margin

[ElectionsGuy]

End Citizens United ...

[mgop]

betas throwing so much money and texas is still red

[MT Treasurer]

If this is the best he can do in a Democratic poll, stick a fork in him. Likely R with some upset potential, but Cruz remains heavily favored.

[Comrade Funk]

If this is the best he can do in a Democratic poll, stick a fork in him. Likely R with some upset potential, but Cruz remains heavily favored.

Probably true.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If this is the best he can do in a Democratic poll, stick a fork in him. Likely R with some upset potential, but Cruz remains heavily favored.

Of course Cruz is the favorite, but with Latinos and Blacks, it remains a 5 point race. Lol, every poll has it 4, not just internals

[IceSpear]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

Aren't you talking about a red wave in a bunch of other threads?

[Pandaguineapig]

If this is the best he can do in a Democratic poll, stick a fork in him. Likely R with some upset potential, but Cruz remains heavily favored.

Of course Cruz is the favorite, but with Latinos and Blacks, it remains a 5 point race. Lol, every poll has it 4, not just internals

No most polls have this at high single digits, the last two dem polls have had this at Cruz +4

[DavidB.]

betas throwing so much money and texas is still red

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Junk. Cruz could very well win by double digits.

[History505]

Junk. Cruz could very well win by double digits.

Single digits, yes. I don't see double digits.

[Beet]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

Aren't you talking about a red wave in a bunch of other threads?

Well the data clearly indicates a red wave, but I sense special Beto magic.

[IceSpear]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

Aren't you talking about a red wave in a bunch of other threads?

Well the data clearly indicates a red wave, but I sense special Beto magic.

What data?

And it would be hard enough for Dems to win Texas even in a blue wave, a red wave would make it impossible, lol.

[Skye]

Well, this functions as a D internal, so I don't think O'Rourke can pull it off. Like I've said before. Texas gonna Texas.

[Beet]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

Aren't you talking about a red wave in a bunch of other threads?

Well the data clearly indicates a red wave, but I sense special Beto magic.

What data?

And it would be hard enough for Dems to win Texas even in a blue wave, a red wave would make it impossible, lol.

Well the Republicans are tied or leading in virtually every toss up House race, some by huge margins. And they are leading in races that are supposed to be lean D (FL-27, IL-06, MN-08, IA-01). At this rate, I see a 228-208 GOP House or thereabouts. As for the Senate, when the two candidates are about tied, I default to fundamentals. That means GOP pickups in MO, IN, ND and MT. For AZ and NV I defer to NYT/Upshot and PredictIt. So GOP will have 55 Senate seats or thereabouts. This would leave them in better shape in 2019-2020 than they were in 2017-2018.

[IceSpear]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

Aren't you talking about a red wave in a bunch of other threads?

Well the data clearly indicates a red wave, but I sense special Beto magic.

What data?

And it would be hard enough for Dems to win Texas even in a blue wave, a red wave would make it impossible, lol.

Well the Republicans are tied or leading in virtually every toss up House race, some by huge margins. And they are leading in races that are supposed to be lean D (FL-27, IL-06, MN-08, IA-01). At this rate, I see a 228-208 GOP House or thereabouts. As for the Senate, when the two candidates are about tied, I default to fundamentals. That means GOP pickups in MO, IN, ND and MT. For AZ and NV I defer to NYT/Upshot and PredictIt. So GOP will have 55 Senate seats or thereabouts. This would leave them in better shape in 2019-2020 than they were in 2017-2018.

The most recent polls of FL-27 and IA-01 are D+7 and D+15 respectively. I'll grade this trolling a C-. I expected better from you Beet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ooh.....

Still Likely R, and I'm still extremely skeptical that Texas is actually ready to vote for a Democrat, but this looks more likely than TN or MS-Special in terms of a potential Democratic Pickup.

[Beet]

Lean R, but I wouldn't be surprised if Beto won.

Aren't you talking about a red wave in a bunch of other threads?

Well the data clearly indicates a red wave, but I sense special Beto magic.

What data?

And it would be hard enough for Dems to win Texas even in a blue wave, a red wave would make it impossible, lol.

Well the Republicans are tied or leading in virtually every toss up House race, some by huge margins. And they are leading in races that are supposed to be lean D (FL-27, IL-06, MN-08, IA-01). At this rate, I see a 228-208 GOP House or thereabouts. As for the Senate, when the two candidates are about tied, I default to fundamentals. That means GOP pickups in MO, IN, ND and MT. For AZ and NV I defer to NYT/Upshot and PredictIt. So GOP will have 55 Senate seats or thereabouts. This would leave them in better shape in 2019-2020 than they were in 2017-2018.

The most recent polls of FL-27 and IA-01 are D+7 and D+15 respectively. I'll grade this trolling a C-. I expected better from you Beet.

Nate doesn't believe his own FL-27 poll due to design flaws- and there are other internal polls showing Shalala down. The same in IA-01, unpublished polls show Blum suddenly surging to a 4-point lead, Bolsonaro-style.