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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  FL-SEA Polling: Scott +2
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Author Topic: FL-SEA Polling: Scott +2  (Read 968 times)
Make PA Blue Again!
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« on: October 21, 2018, 03:57:50 pm »

This poll has Gillum up 6, I highly doubt there's that many Gillum/Scott voters, and Nelson underperforms Gillum by 8 points in the end. Anyways:

Scott (R): 47%
Nelson (D): 45%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-9843-d316-afe7-9ae304cc0000
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #1 on: October 21, 2018, 03:58:37 pm »

With that kind of disparity, junk.
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Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #2 on: October 21, 2018, 04:01:24 pm »

Who?
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 21, 2018, 04:07:44 pm »

That's another poll with a huge gap between Nelson and Gillum. It doesn't seem to make sense, but if we continue to see it, maybe pollsters are onto something. Btw, great hurricane bump for Scott, clearly he's shot to a mid-high single digit lead.
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2016
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« Reply #4 on: October 21, 2018, 04:10:26 pm »


No, CNN is junk as always.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: October 21, 2018, 04:13:15 pm »

Of all the states I have going R in my prediction (IN/MO/ND/FL, with Ds winning NV and AZ), this is the one I’m least sure about. Still a Toss-up, and Nelson really can’t afford to underperform Gillum by that much.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #6 on: October 21, 2018, 04:25:37 pm »


POLLS I DON'T AGREE WITH ARE JUNK!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: October 21, 2018, 04:27:48 pm »

Always best to ignore the many low quality Florida polls.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: October 21, 2018, 04:54:01 pm »

I doubt that Gillum and Scott win at same time
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #9 on: October 21, 2018, 04:55:18 pm »

I'm curious what SE&A Research is...

Why would they not include people who already voted in the results?

Why are they required to speak to the youngest person registered to vote in the home?

Is this standard?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2018, 04:57:45 pm »


No idea. According to Wikipedia they are a Democratic-leaning pollster, although these numbers are pretty believable IMO.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2018, 05:32:54 pm »

Another poll showing a huge gap between this race and the Governor's race. A worrying trend for Nelson if it continues, but on the bright side DeSantis is screwed if he really does underperform Scott by 7-8 points.
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2018, 06:04:54 pm »

I'd really like to see the crosstabs it could just be Gillum is getting 95%+ with blacks and Nelson only getting 80% with the rest undecided.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2018, 06:38:20 pm »

I'd really like to see the crosstabs it could just be Gillum is getting 95%+ with blacks and Nelson only getting 80% with the rest undecided.

That wouldn’t even come that close to making up the 8% gap between Gillum and Nelson.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2018, 06:45:25 pm »

I'd really like to see the crosstabs it could just be Gillum is getting 95%+ with blacks and Nelson only getting 80% with the rest undecided.

That wouldn’t even come that close to making up the 8% gap between Gillum and Nelson.

True, but it would pull Nelson into the lead.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2018, 06:21:02 am »

The hurricane bump is real people.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2018, 06:24:38 am »

The fact that a D pollster has Nelson down by 2 is ringing alarms that something is about to change. We will soon see a pattern of Scott leading in polls by around 2-5 points by election day.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2018, 07:05:40 am »

Scott was tough in 2014 and he will be tough to beat this time.
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History505
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2018, 08:27:17 am »

I doubt that Gillum and Scott win at same time
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