ME-Pan Atlantic Research: Janet Mills (D) heading for the win
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
September 30, 2022, 08:10:48 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  ME-Pan Atlantic Research: Janet Mills (D) heading for the win
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: ME-Pan Atlantic Research: Janet Mills (D) heading for the win  (Read 2113 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,112
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 19, 2018, 02:42:45 PM »

44% Janet Mills (D)
36% Shawn Moody (R)
  8% Terry Hayes (I)
  2% Alan Caron (I)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 70,041
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2018, 02:45:23 PM »

But I thought Maine was a red state now...

Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh has damaged Moody's chances
Logged
Xing (reluctantly no longer on strike)
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,548
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2018, 02:45:40 PM »

Glad we’re at least getting a little more data on this race. I might move this to Lean D.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,294


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2018, 02:46:44 PM »

If I could vote for Janet Mills I would - whether or not you agree with her policies she just seems like a stand up person. Maine is going to be lucky to have her undo the LePage legacy.
Logged
Official Penguin Books Account
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,189
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2018, 02:47:18 PM »

But I thought Maine was a red state now...

Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh has damaged Moody's chances

Polling of ME-02 (admittedly the more conservative half of the state) shows that Collins's vote is approved by a wide margin. It's hard to imagine that it would be as radically opposed in ME-01, which would be necessary for it to have any negative effect on statewide Republicans.

This has nothing to do with Collins and everything to do with LePage.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 70,041
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2018, 02:49:29 PM »

But, Pingree is gonna challenge Collins in 2020, and most likely win
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,950
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2018, 02:49:34 PM »

Still a Toss-up for now, but Mills is probably slightly favored at this point.

Also lol@Kavanaugh dooming Collins, her favorability in this poll is +30.1%.
Logged
Mr.Barkari Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 70,041
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2018, 02:50:20 PM »

Still a Toss-up for now, but Mills is probably slightly favored at this point.

Also lol@Kavanaugh dooming Collins, her favorability in this poll is +30.1%.

She doesn't have a challenger yet, and we will see about that when Pingree announces a challenger to her
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,276
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2018, 03:09:54 PM »

Holt shit she’s actually up by 8
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,276
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2018, 04:05:19 PM »

But I thought Maine was a red state now...

Collins vote to affirm Kavanaugh has damaged Moody's chances

Polling of ME-02 (admittedly the more conservative half of the state) shows that Collins's vote is approved by a wide margin. It's hard to imagine that it would be as radically opposed in ME-01, which would be necessary for it to have any negative effect on statewide Republicans.

This has nothing to do with Collins and everything to do with LePage.
The NYT sample seemed Republican leaning (it actually polled more Republicans and Democrats still have a registration advantage there).
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,276
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2018, 04:30:58 PM »

Mills leading the 2nd district is probably good news for Golden
Logged
wesmoorenerd
westroopnerd
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,540
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.16, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2018, 04:35:31 PM »

Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup. I realistically don't see this one going for the Rs. It's not guaranteed like IL, NM, or MI, but a Moody win is highly likely IMO.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,232
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2018, 04:39:22 PM »

Unless there’s some kind of crazy herding going on in think Mills is up by 8, folks
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,276
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2018, 04:44:58 PM »

Unless there’s some kind of crazy herding going on in think Mills is up by 8, folks
*nods excitedly*

Moody has not united Republicans (I guess joining the party a few days before you announce your campaign isn’t good strategy), and Democrats are not defecting their candidate.
Logged
NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,518
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2018, 07:23:13 PM »


What is it, the fourth poll where she's up by exactly 8? That's odd.
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,276
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2018, 07:27:04 PM »


What is it, the fourth poll where she's led by exactly 8? That's odd.
Third, but they've all been released consecutively and in the last few weeks.

Slingshot Strategies, a Hayes internal, found Mills to be at 41 with Moody at 33, Hayes at 10 and Caron at 2.

Change Research found Mills at 52 with Moody at 44 in the H2H, and apparently didn't poll the independents.

And now Pan Atlantic.
Logged
NUPES Enjoyer
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 55,518
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2018, 07:43:52 PM »


What is it, the fourth poll where she's led by exactly 8? That's odd.
Third, but they've all been released consecutively and in the last few weeks.

Slingshot Strategies, a Hayes internal, found Mills to be at 41 with Moody at 33, Hayes at 10 and Caron at 2.

Change Research found Mills at 52 with Moody at 44 in the H2H, and apparently didn't poll the independents.

And now Pan Atlantic.

Even if Mills is in fact up by 8, you should see different poll results just by virtue of random variance (let alone the fact that they were designed so differently).
Logged
MAINEiac4434
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,276
France


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2018, 09:20:37 PM »

PanAtlantic predicted a LePage 7 point margin in 2014. LePage ended up winning by 5.



This might be the Pan Atlantic might be the Marquette of Maine.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2018, 05:53:47 AM »

Great poll!

I'd feel a lot better about this race if it had IRV though.
Logged
Horsemask
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,271


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: -4.87


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2018, 05:50:04 PM »

Wow, it is actually Lean D
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,461
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2018, 07:28:06 PM »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,849
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2018, 07:30:40 PM »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Atlas assumes anyone with a vagina is a bad candidate.

Seriously, notice whenever Atlas is bashing someone's "candidate quality", it is almost always a woman. The only exceptions are for over the top offensively bad male candidates like Roy Moore, Bob Menendez, etc.

Ex: Jacky Rosen is a bad candidate because she has a bad haircut and is uninspiring. Donna Shalala is a bad candidate because she doesn't speak Spanish. Randy Bryce is a great candidate despite his multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, delinquent child support payments, etc. because he's a #populist Purple heart white man.
Logged
Comrade Funk
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,400
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2018, 10:28:08 AM »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Atlas assumes anyone with a vagina is a bad candidate.

Seriously, notice whenever Atlas is bashing someone's "candidate quality", it is almost always a woman. The only exceptions are for over the top offensively bad male candidates like Roy Moore, Bob Menendez, etc.

Ex: Jacky Rosen is a bad candidate because she has a bad haircut and is uninspiring. Donna Shalala is a bad candidate because she doesn't speak Spanish. Randy Bryce is a great candidate despite his multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, delinquent child support payments, etc. because he's a #populist Purple heart white man.
Wait until the 2020 primaries and then you'll see the same thing x10
Logged
Josh Shapiro for Governor
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,768
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2018, 10:29:56 AM »

Perhaps Mills wasn't such a bad candidate after all.

Atlas assumes anyone with a vagina is a bad candidate.

Seriously, notice whenever Atlas is bashing someone's "candidate quality", it is almost always a woman. The only exceptions are for over the top offensively bad male candidates like Roy Moore, Bob Menendez, etc.

Ex: Jacky Rosen is a bad candidate because she has a bad haircut and is uninspiring. Donna Shalala is a bad candidate because she doesn't speak Spanish. Randy Bryce is a great candidate despite his multiple arrests, multiple DUIs, delinquent child support payments, etc. because he's a #populist Purple heart white man.
Wait until the 2020 primaries and then you'll see the same thing x10

This entire thread x 1000
Logged
Alabama_Indy10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,325
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2018, 10:30:20 AM »

Dang. On an unrelated note, I just looked at the Wikipedia page for this race and Moody's picture looks like a mugshot lol
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.059 seconds with 13 queries.