When does natural growth in the US reach zero

[DINGO Joe]

Or when do the number of yearly deaths match the number of births. 

In 2000 births were 4.058 million and deaths were 2.403 million
In 2010 births were 3.999 million and deaths were 2.468 million
In 2013 births were 3.932 million and deaths were 2.569 million
In 2017 births were 3.855 million and deaths were 2.814 million

Looking at that you'd think we're still a long ways away  from reaching zero.

However, check out the historic numbers for births

https://www.infoplease.com/us/births/live-births-and-birth-rates-year

The number of deaths in 2013 correspond closely to the number of births in 1940.  The number of deaths this year will correspond closely to births in 1945. 

Of course, births exploded after 1945 and by 1952 they reached 3.913 million.  Births will peak in 1957 at just over 4.3 million, and will stay above 4.0 million thru 1964.

So, is there any reason to not expect deaths to roughly match births by 2025? 

Of course, we all know about the baby boom but I don't think we really comprehend how quickly it will change population growth in the US

[Annatar]

If US life expectancy continues to stagnate at around 78 - 78.5 and TFR remains steady at 1.75, then by 2030, the CDR should rise to around 10/1000, with an expected population of around 350 million by 2030, that would mean 3.5 million deaths, births will continue to remain at around 3.8 million as though fertility is below replacement, immigration will help maintain the number of women in the childbearing ages at current levels at least for a decade more.

Overall, deaths will probably rise to around 3.7 to 3.8 million by the middle of the 2030's due to ageing if the life expectancy continues to stagnate and births will at that time actually begin to decline as immigration will no longer be sufficient to offset the effect of declining cohorts, so I would say around 2035 or so the US will reach zero natural population growth.

[DINGO Joe]

If US life expectancy continues to stagnate at around 78 - 78.5 and TFR remains steady at 1.75, then by 2030, the CDR should rise to around 10/1000, with an expected population of around 350 million by 2030, that would mean 3.5 million deaths, births will continue to remain at around 3.8 million as though fertility is below replacement, immigration will help maintain the number of women in the childbearing ages at current levels at least for a decade more.

Overall, deaths will probably rise to around 3.7 to 3.8 million by the middle of the 2030's due to ageing if the life expectancy continues to stagnate and births will at that time actually begin to decline as immigration will no longer be sufficient to offset the effect of declining cohorts, so I would say around 2035 or so the US will reach zero natural population growth.

If US Births exceeded 4.0 million from 1954 to 1964, why won't deaths ultimately exceed that number.  Everyone born must die.  And that doesn't even take immigration into account.

[Annatar]

If US Births exceeded 4.0 million from 1954 to 1964, why won't deaths ultimately exceed that number.  Everyone born must die.  And that doesn't even take immigration into account.

They will hit 4 million deaths by around 2040, if you look at the life tables, mortality rates rise rapidly once you get over 80, the baby boomers will start to really die off in big numbers post 2035, especially once you get to 2040, the average baby boomer will be 85 years of age, 85-95 is the age range when the entire baby boomer generation will basically die off. I would expect deaths to explode from the mid 2030’s rising to as high as 4.5 million a year by 2045.

On current trends, natural decrease could reach a million people per annum by the mid 2040’s, at which point the population would stabilise as current migration of a million per year would only be sufficient to offset natural decline. I have the US population stabilising at around 370 million by 2045, a lot of other projections by the US Census Bureau or the UN massively overstate US population growth going forward.

[Strudelcutie4427]

When Yellowstone erupts