Redistricting victims next cycle.

[Oryxslayer]

In the event TN loses a seat, here's what a Nashville split could look like:



1: Utterly safe eastern TN coal dirt seat. R+29, and another 10 years in Congress for Phil Roe (R) (insert Generic R if he dies).

2: Features the entirety of Knoxville and Maryville, heads south for population. R+21. Tim Burchett (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress) will have a long career here.

3: Nashville Split, Part A. Includes Western Davidson County and its western surburbs, then heads across the northern border until scooping south to touch district 2. R+14, and the home for Mark Green (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress).

4: This seat includes Nashville proper and is where Jim Cooper (D) would try to run for re-election, but the E-SE suburban skate it takes after leaving Nashville does not help him, as it takes the seat all the way to R+10. This would be a free-for-all in the republican primary, but whoever wins it would defeat Cooper or any other D in the general.

5: Skating from East Davidson through heavily republican suburbs, this will be home for John Rose (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress). R+16.

6: This seat features the entirety of Chattanooga, and then goes West for population. At R+18, it's not competitive in the general election. But the 2022 primary would feature a YUGE battle as two republican incumbents live here - Chuck Flesichmann and Scott DesJarlais. Prepare for a nasty primary. Alternatively, one of them could carpetbag up to the 4th, but would risk losing the primary to a new, more local candidate.

7: This R+19 West TN seat is perfect for another 10 years of David Kustoff (R).

8: D+18 VRA. Safe Steve Cohen/generic Black D if he retires.

-------------

Least Change from this if TN remains at 9 Reps is as follows: The 1st becomes even more trenched in the coal dirt, with its westernmost parts going into the second. The southernmost parts of the second end up in the sixth, the westernmost reaches of which become a new, 9th seat that would in theory be good for Mr. DesJarlais, but in practice the fact that he would live just outside of it might doom him in the primary. The seat is completed with parts of the 5th/8th. Adjust remaining lines as needed to reach uniform population.

I feels its more likely R's get a fourth seat involved in cracking Nashville to make it safer (R+10? Too low) and also an incumbent from losing their home seat (never would draw two incumbents together).

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

In the event TN loses a seat, here's what a Nashville split could look like:



1: Utterly safe eastern TN coal dirt seat. R+29, and another 10 years in Congress for Phil Roe (R) (insert Generic R if he dies).

2: Features the entirety of Knoxville and Maryville, heads south for population. R+21. Tim Burchett (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress) will have a long career here.

3: Nashville Split, Part A. Includes Western Davidson County and its western surburbs, then heads across the northern border until scooping south to touch district 2. R+14, and the home for Mark Green (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress).

4: This seat includes Nashville proper and is where Jim Cooper (D) would try to run for re-election, but the E-SE suburban skate it takes after leaving Nashville does not help him, as it takes the seat all the way to R+10. This would be a free-for-all in the republican primary, but whoever wins it would defeat Cooper or any other D in the general.

5: Skating from East Davidson through heavily republican suburbs, this will be home for John Rose (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress). R+16.

6: This seat features the entirety of Chattanooga, and then goes West for population. At R+18, it's not competitive in the general election. But the 2022 primary would feature a YUGE battle as two republican incumbents live here - Chuck Flesichmann and Scott DesJarlais. Prepare for a nasty primary. Alternatively, one of them could carpetbag up to the 4th, but would risk losing the primary to a new, more local candidate.

7: This R+19 West TN seat is perfect for another 10 years of David Kustoff (R).

8: D+18 VRA. Safe Steve Cohen/generic Black D if he retires.

-------------

Least Change from this if TN remains at 9 Reps is as follows: The 1st becomes even more trenched in the coal dirt, with its westernmost parts going into the second. The southernmost parts of the second end up in the sixth, the westernmost reaches of which become a new, 9th seat that would in theory be good for Mr. DesJarlais, but in practice the fact that he would live just outside of it might doom him in the primary. The seat is completed with parts of the 5th/8th. Adjust remaining lines as needed to reach uniform population.

I feels its more likely R's get a fourth seat involved in cracking Nashville to make it safer (R+10? Too low) and also an incumbent from losing their home seat (never would draw two incumbents together).

Yeah. Jim Cooper is a blue dog who used to represent a rural district and who handily outran Clinton. A crack would have to solid to knock him out.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

In the event TN loses a seat, here's what a Nashville split could look like:



1: Utterly safe eastern TN coal dirt seat. R+29, and another 10 years in Congress for Phil Roe (R) (insert Generic R if he dies).

2: Features the entirety of Knoxville and Maryville, heads south for population. R+21. Tim Burchett (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress) will have a long career here.

3: Nashville Split, Part A. Includes Western Davidson County and its western surburbs, then heads across the northern border until scooping south to touch district 2. R+14, and the home for Mark Green (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress).

4: This seat includes Nashville proper and is where Jim Cooper (D) would try to run for re-election, but the E-SE suburban skate it takes after leaving Nashville does not help him, as it takes the seat all the way to R+10. This would be a free-for-all in the republican primary, but whoever wins it would defeat Cooper or any other D in the general.

5: Skating from East Davidson through heavily republican suburbs, this will be home for John Rose (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress). R+16.

6: This seat features the entirety of Chattanooga, and then goes West for population. At R+18, it's not competitive in the general election. But the 2022 primary would feature a YUGE battle as two republican incumbents live here - Chuck Flesichmann and Scott DesJarlais. Prepare for a nasty primary. Alternatively, one of them could carpetbag up to the 4th, but would risk losing the primary to a new, more local candidate.

7: This R+19 West TN seat is perfect for another 10 years of David Kustoff (R).

8: D+18 VRA. Safe Steve Cohen/generic Black D if he retires.

-------------

Least Change from this if TN remains at 9 Reps is as follows: The 1st becomes even more trenched in the coal dirt, with its westernmost parts going into the second. The southernmost parts of the second end up in the sixth, the westernmost reaches of which become a new, 9th seat that would in theory be good for Mr. DesJarlais, but in practice the fact that he would live just outside of it might doom him in the primary. The seat is completed with parts of the 5th/8th. Adjust remaining lines as needed to reach uniform population.

I feels its more likely R's get a fourth seat involved in cracking Nashville to make it safer (R+10? Too low) and also an incumbent from losing their home seat (never would draw two incumbents together).

The problem with the incumbents that it's hard to give DesJarlais a seat of his own because of where he lives (county just west of Chattanooga) in relation to where Flesichmann lives (in Hamilton County (Chattanooga) itself). The current rl map works because Nashville is kept whole, but with a split Nashville plan the two main alternatives to what I did are 1) do some interesting splits of Knoxville or Chattanooga to give Mr. DesJarlais his own seat, but that would anger Flesichmann/Burchett, or 2) Cart my 7th super Eastward to cart up DesJarlais. (This actually makes sense if you are splitting Nashville 4 ways) This satisfies Flesichmann without angering anyone else in the east, but has the side effect of creating a nasty primary between DesJarlais and Kustoff.

Basically, once you start messing with Nashville, you can't really get a map that satisfies all 7 republican incumbents.

[KingSweden]

I mean this discussion is kinda moot since TN isn’t losing seats

[Oryxslayer]

I mean this discussion is kinda moot since TN isn’t losing seats

No, but they are going to draw one current seat out of existence.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

In the event TN loses a seat, here's what a Nashville split could look like:



1: Utterly safe eastern TN coal dirt seat. R+29, and another 10 years in Congress for Phil Roe (R) (insert Generic R if he dies).

2: Features the entirety of Knoxville and Maryville, heads south for population. R+21. Tim Burchett (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress) will have a long career here.

3: Nashville Split, Part A. Includes Western Davidson County and its western surburbs, then heads across the northern border until scooping south to touch district 2. R+14, and the home for Mark Green (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress).

4: This seat includes Nashville proper and is where Jim Cooper (D) would try to run for re-election, but the E-SE suburban skate it takes after leaving Nashville does not help him, as it takes the seat all the way to R+10. This would be a free-for-all in the republican primary, but whoever wins it would defeat Cooper or any other D in the general.

5: Skating from East Davidson through heavily republican suburbs, this will be home for John Rose (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress). R+16.

6: This seat features the entirety of Chattanooga, and then goes West for population. At R+18, it's not competitive in the general election. But the 2022 primary would feature a YUGE battle as two republican incumbents live here - Chuck Flesichmann and Scott DesJarlais. Prepare for a nasty primary. Alternatively, one of them could carpetbag up to the 4th, but would risk losing the primary to a new, more local candidate.

7: This R+19 West TN seat is perfect for another 10 years of David Kustoff (R).

8: D+18 VRA. Safe Steve Cohen/generic Black D if he retires.

-------------

Least Change from this if TN remains at 9 Reps is as follows: The 1st becomes even more trenched in the coal dirt, with its westernmost parts going into the second. The southernmost parts of the second end up in the sixth, the westernmost reaches of which become a new, 9th seat that would in theory be good for Mr. DesJarlais, but in practice the fact that he would live just outside of it might doom him in the primary. The seat is completed with parts of the 5th/8th. Adjust remaining lines as needed to reach uniform population.

I've never heard any talk of TN losing a seat.  We should almost certainly stay at 9 this time, but growing to 10 in 2030 wouldn't shock me at all.

Here is a fairly neat map I drew that would be safely 8-1:

TN-1 (Blue, NE Tennessee): R+28
TN-2 (Green, Knoxville): R+19
TN-3 (Purple, Chattanooga): R+20
TN-4 (Red, Murfreesboro, Nashville): R+14
TN-5 (Yellow, Cookeville, Nashville): R+16
TN-6 (Teal, Franklin, Nashville): R+14
TN-7 (Gray, Clarksville, Nashville): R+14
TN-8 (Blue, Jackson/SW Tennessee): R+20
TN-9 (Cyan, Memphis): D+29

An insert of the split of Nashville, along with some key places/neighborhoods in each district:


TN-4: Antioch, Donelson, Grand Ole Opry/Opryland Hotel (R), Percy Priest Lake (R)

TN-5: East Nashville (hipster side of town), Germantown (majority black neighborhood north of downtown), Madison, parts of Goodlettsville

TN-6: Downtown Nashville, Vanderbilt/West End, Belmont, Lipscomb (maybe R in terms of the university as it is an evangelical Christian school, but there is enough around it that the voting area is D+2), Davidson County "Brentwood" (R), Belle Meade (R) Green Hills (R), The Gulch and 12th South (trendy yuppie neighborhoods), Edgehill (majority black), significant Hispanic populations along Nolensville Pike

TN-7: Bellevue (R), parts of Goodlettsville (R), parts of West End- including some areas near Vanderbilt, Sylvan Heights, majority Black neighborhoods N/W of downtown, less urbanized areas of Western and Northern Davidson County (R)

[DC Al Fine]

Is Cohen's seat is crackable or does it have to stay because of VRA?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Cohen's seat is crackable or does it have to stay because of VRA?

Yeah, it has to stay because of VRA and would be much more difficult to crack anyway because it's both in a corner of the state (as opposed to centrally located) and MUCH more Democratic to begin with.

[Strudelcutie4427]

This should basically eliminate Jim Cooper

1. R+28
2. R+19
3. R+20
4. R+16
5. R+14
6. R+15
7. R+14
8. R+17
9. D+23

[Nyvin]

I don't think splitting Davidson four ways is needed.   Just cutting it in half would be fine.   At the very most it should only be 3 districts in Davidson and even that is pushing it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Would the Oregon Legislature really screw one of their own like that? 

[Oryxslayer]

Oregon is going to get wierd. I suspect the end result will just a be a new Pub seat that reinforces all the Dem ones, but the lines are going to be fiercely fought over. I would not be surprised if Dems want to get Bend involved in what's going on to the West of the Cascades, a move that would anger Pubs just like how WA-08 angered Dems in 2010.

[Tintrlvr]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

Not to mention that Lane County is going to be a larger % of a seat's population if there is 6 instead of 5. It's likely OR-04 gets more Democratic, not less.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

DeFazio lives in Springfield.

Here is the deal:
Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, and 100,000 more people (probably from northern and eastern Marion county, rather than a Weird Hood River/Wasco protrusion) make exactly three safe blue congressional districts.


Benton, Lincoln, Linn, Polk, the rest of Marion County, and about 100,000 people from Lane County (probably Eugene west of the 5, northeast of the Willamette, but Springfield or the Santa Clara area could work too) makes another congressional district, which Hillary Clinton won by a few percentage points. This additionally forces DeFazio south.

DeFazio's new district would have to take in all of Josephine, and about half (Western Medford, Jacksonville, Ashland) of Jackson county. This would maintain an even PVI, which DeFazio would have a very good shot in.

Walden would keep East Medford, Central Point, and White City, along with all of Oregon east of the cascades. This would be a safe R seat.

All in all, it would look something like this:

[KingSweden]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

DeFazio lives in Springfield.

Here is the deal:
Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, and 100,000 more people (probably from northern and eastern Marion county, rather than a Weird Hood River/Wasco protrusion) make exactly three safe blue congressional districts.


Benton, Lincoln, Linn, Polk, the rest of Marion County, and about 100,000 people from Lane County (probably Eugene west of the 5, northeast of the Willamette, but Springfield or the Santa Clara area could work too) makes another congressional district, which Hillary Clinton won by a few percentage points. This additionally forces DeFazio south.

DeFazio's new district would have to take in all of Josephine, and about half (Western Medford, Jacksonville, Ashland) of Jackson county. This would maintain an even PVI, which DeFazio would have a very good shot in.

Walden would keep East Medford, Central Point, and White City, along with all of Oregon east of the cascades. This would be a safe R seat.

All in all, it would look something like this:

Pic didn’t work

[Torrain]

Pennsylvania:
-I could see Lamb being sacrificed (there's no way to  make 2 Dem-leaning seats out of the Pitt area without ugliness in the lines/tearing across counties...besides, this will clear the way for him to take on Toomey in 2022)
[...]

The new PA-17 is R+3, i.e. clearly not Dem-leaning.

It is possible to draw a Likely D district which is fully in Allegheny County and includes Pittsburgh plus Northern and Western suburbs, and a toss-up district which includes the remaining Eastern and Southern suburbs plus Washington County and some adjacent areas along the Monongahela. Sadly DRA doesn't work for me anymore, so I cannot prove it, but the idea should be quite clear.

My money's still on Lamb making a break for the Senate and taking on Toomey, so this might end up being an academic point. All depends on his ambitions though, and whether Shapiro beats him to the nomination, and whether Trump is in office in 2022.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interestingly, adding seats could kill incumbents as well. Oregon gaining a 6th seat means the 4th will be pulled south towards Ashland/Grants Pass/Medford, giving up some of Albany/Eugene/Springfield. This could spell the end for DeFazio (good riddance, though he does seem to overperform PVI) as a new purplish Albany/Corvallis/Salem seat is formed, as Schrader's district becomes bluer, pulling north into Clackamas and Multnomah counties. The only way to mitigate this would be with a crazy gerrymander giving Blumenauer part of Eastern Oregon, giving Walden Roseburg, and pushing DeFazio up towards Marion and Polk counties as Schrader, Bonamici, and a new district cut up the state from Salem north.

Not going to happen. DeFazio lives in Lane County (I think in Eugene proper), so any district including Eugene is his district. And no district including Eugene is voting Republican.

It's also honestly much more reasonable to cross the Cascades at Hood River than the way the map currently works, since there's an Interstate along the Columbia River but only winding state highways that close in winter in the southern part of the state.

DeFazio lives in Springfield.

Here is the deal:
Clackamas, Clatsop, Columbia, Tillamook, Multnomah, Washington, Yamhill, and 100,000 more people (probably from northern and eastern Marion county, rather than a Weird Hood River/Wasco protrusion) make exactly three safe blue congressional districts.


Benton, Lincoln, Linn, Polk, the rest of Marion County, and about 100,000 people from Lane County (probably Eugene west of the 5, northeast of the Willamette, but Springfield or the Santa Clara area could work too) makes another congressional district, which Hillary Clinton won by a few percentage points. This additionally forces DeFazio south.

DeFazio's new district would have to take in all of Josephine, and about half (Western Medford, Jacksonville, Ashland) of Jackson county. This would maintain an even PVI, which DeFazio would have a very good shot in.

Walden would keep East Medford, Central Point, and White City, along with all of Oregon east of the cascades. This would be a safe R seat.

All in all, it would look something like this:

great map.

[jimrtex]

I'm excited to see what happens for CA. The commission won't pay attention to incumbency or PVI.

What does the CA commission base its congressional maps off of then?

1) VRA, but they won't have to worry about Section 5, in 2011 they created many Hispanic seats ad one Asian seat. The black population said that they didn't need 50% to get elected, but they have lost one of those seats.

2) County and city boundaries, and local communities of interest.

Los Angeles County will lose about 1/2 of a district, assuming California doesn't lose its 53rd seat. Small gains in Riverside and San Diego. Orange, San Bernardino, and Ventura are about even. Gains in the Bay Area.

For LA you can't really expand into Orange, because there is no excess population except what you can get from San Diego. You can go a bit into San Bermardino and pick up from Riverside. There would be major resistance from Ventura since it is equivalent to one district. So you have to start sliding north into Kern County, and perhaps moving Santa Clarita in with the the San Fernando Valley. There really aren't any options other than to slide districts northward.

Though sliding will be the net effect, they will be making a grave mistake if they look at it that way. It is certain that there are badly configured districts simply because people do not naturally aggregate in CD-sized communities. Population equality requires least bad choices to be made. A different set of numbers moves those least bad choices to other areas.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A second option for Alabama:



The 3rd here is a hefty 58% black. Rogers and Aderholt end up in a primary battle.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

So, with all the changes in governors and legislatures, anyone want to amend their picks for redistricting victims? 

[Atlas Force]

How will the South Carolina GOP handle SC-01? I guess Cunningham’s got an uphill climb for re-election, but if he gets lucky a second time, is there a way the legislature could make SC-01 redder without putting the other Republican seats at risk?

[politicallefty]

So, with all the changes in governors and legislatures, anyone want to amend their picks for redistricting victims? 

It should be interesting to see what IL Dems do now that they have a 13-5 advantage and literally control their hand-crafted R vote sink in the Chicago suburbs. With IL expected to lose a seat, I’m curious to see how Democrats force Republicans to take the hit while combining the Democratic areas of IL-12 and IL-13 into one seat. I think 14-3 is a definite dummymander unless they get very creative with Chicago.

Personally, I think it’s probably safer to go 13-4. We can easily shore up IL-06 and IL-14. It’s a lot harder to shore up IL-17. I know Cheri Bustos is a strong incumbent, but I don’t trust a district like that. But short of moving into Chicagoland, it’s going to be a tortured monstrosity that might even shame Maryland Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

So, with all the changes in governors and legislatures, anyone want to amend their picks for redistricting victims? 

It should be interesting to see what IL Dems do now that they have a 13-5 advantage and literally control their hand-crafted R vote sink in the Chicago suburbs. With IL expected to lose a seat, I’m curious to see how Democrats force Republicans to take the hit while combining the Democratic areas of IL-12 and IL-13 into one seat. I think 14-3 is a definite dummymander unless they get very creative with Chicago.

Personally, I think it’s probably safer to go 13-4. We can easily shore up IL-06 and IL-14. It’s a lot harder to shore up IL-17. I know Cheri Bustos is a strong incumbent, but I don’t trust a district like that. But short of moving into Chicagoland, it’s going to be a tortured monstrosity that might even shame Maryland Dems.

I think they will shore up IL-06 and IL-14 by stretching them into chunks of Chicago proper (both IL-01 and IL-07 can spare plenty).