Which races are you the least confident about predicting?

[Xing]

Definitely NV-SEN.

...


Just kidding. MO-SEN is a pretty obvious one for me, though IN-SEN is definitely one I want to see more polling for, and AZ-SEN is definitely starting to look very close. While I think FL-SEN and MT-SEN are going to be at least somewhat close, I feel a little more confident predicting that Nelson and Tester will survive, unless things get worse for Democrats.

In the House, CA-39, FL-26, IL-12, IL-14, IA-03, KS-02, MN-01, NJ-07, NM-02, TX-07, TX-32, and VA-07 are ones that I'm on the fence about.

[beesley]

TX-07 and TX-32 I really have no idea about. Gun to my head, Culberson and Allred win, but I couldn't argue against Fletcher and Sessions.

I'm also not too sure about IL-14, KS-02, NJ-07, NY-22 or CA-39. If I had to pick, they would probably be Republican victories, except for Brindisi winning in NY-22.

[Politician]

House: CA-39, IL-12, IL-13, IL-14, MN-01, MN-08, NE-02, NC-02, NC-13, OH-01, OH-12, PA-10, VA-07 and WV-03.
Senate: NV and MO.

[OneJ]

Senate: MO
House: MN-01, MN-08, NM-02, WV-03, FL-26, OH-01, IL-12, IL-14, CA-39

[😥]

Senate: NV, AZ
House: CA-39, FL-27, IL-14, IA-03, MN-01, MN-08, TX-07, TX-32, VA-02, VA-07, WV-03

[ElectionsGuy]

For senate races, Indiana for sure.

On the house side, I would say its a lot of seats that Democrats have historically had good numbers or are currently running a good campaign in but are nationally more Republican. I'm thinking ME-02, KY-06, and other seats like that. I don't know if the "wave" will carry every strong Democrat or if the trends we saw in 2016 will stick strongly in place, emphasizing Dems gains with college educated suburbs.

[Calthrina950]

I am not as sure about the House, but I consider Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Nevada to all be pure tossups. I am more confident about the remaining races.

[Skye]

Those that have had very few polling, especially those that haven't had any good polling in a while. Looking at you, IN and MT.

Other than those, MO definitely seems too close to call, which will of course make it super difficult to predict.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MO and IN

[Senator Incitatus]

Depends on what you mean.

We can be pretty sure that FL, NV, AZ, and MO will be close races in either direction, while we know very little about where MT and IN will ultimately end up even if we are a little more confident about the ultimate winning party.

In other words, I'd rather pick the winner and margin in the first four and would rather pick just the winner in the latter two.

[MT Treasurer]

I think NV-SEN is the only one where the outcome is still uncertain, since I don’t trust polling in ND/TN/TX. Gun to my head, Heller by 2-3.

[mcmikk]

ND, IN, MO

[adrac]

ND for sure.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

ND & TX

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

NV for sure. PA-01 for the house.

[TDAS04]

FL.  My head says Nelson should win, but Scott has a habit of pulling off narrow upsets.

[Wisconsin+17]

Great thread. So many choices.

I'm going to go with WV. Manchin should win but the state was Trump + 48 or something ridiculous.

[Rhenna]

Senate: AZ, IN, MO
House: CA-25, CA-39, FL-15, FL-26, IL-06, IL-12, IL-13, ME-02, NJ-07, NM-02, NY-01, NC-02, NC-09, OH-14, PA-01, TX-07, TX-32, VA-05, VA-07

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TN and FL, Scott and Bredesen can both win

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Great thread. So many choices.

I'm going to go with WV. Manchin should win but the state was Trump + 48 or something ridiculous.

It was 42 bud, but yeah i agree that Manchin loses

[MillennialModerate]

I think NV-SEN is the only one where the outcome is still uncertain, since I don’t trust polling in ND/TN/TX. Gun to my head, Heller by 2-3.

You serious with that map?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ND is GOP leaning