Which gubernatorial race are Republicans more likely to win?
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  Which gubernatorial race are Republicans more likely to win?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Well?
#1
Wisconsin		  
#2
Nevada		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 64

Author Topic: Which gubernatorial race are Republicans more likely to win?  (Read 1371 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: October 16, 2018, 07:53:55 PM »
This should be fun.

Anyway, obviously Wisconsin.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 17, 2018, 06:47:21 AM »
Nevada, and it isn't particularly close.
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andjey
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« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2018, 07:23:28 AM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 17, 2018, 07:19:32 AM
Obviously Nevada, but Republicans will probably lose both
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Skye
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« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2018, 08:01:28 AM »
I voted Wisconsin on gut feeling.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2018, 08:07:40 AM »
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Atlas Force
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« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2018, 08:39:35 AM »
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2018, 09:40:55 AM »
Wisconsin, easily.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2018, 11:03:59 AM »
While people were way too quick to assume that the R trend was permanent in Wisconsin after 2016, and I do think Evers will win in the end, Walker is far more likely to win than Laxalt. I'd say Wisconsin is Toss-Up/Tilt D, while Nevada is Likely D.
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Orser67
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2018, 11:49:19 AM »
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2018, 12:40:35 PM »
I'm not going to lie: Wisconsin's governor race has made me quite nervous after that last MU Law poll.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2018, 12:45:43 PM »

This. You guys are overdoing it on the Safe D Nevada nonsense. If polls have Republicans narrowly leading the race is at least competitive.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2018, 04:30:59 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 17, 2018, 12:45:43 PM
This. You guys are overdoing it on the Safe D Nevada nonsense. If polls have Republicans narrowly leading the race is at least competitive.

So we’re supposed to ignore the Marquette poll, the fact that WI is a more Republican state than NV and NV's long history of polling being biased in favor Rs? Walker could definitely lose, but if he does, there’s no way Laxalt is even coming close to winning.
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2018, 04:34:10 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2018, 04:30:59 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 17, 2018, 12:45:43 PM
This. You guys are overdoing it on the Safe D Nevada nonsense. If polls have Republicans narrowly leading the race is at least competitive.

So we’re supposed to ignore the Marquette poll, the fact that WI is a more Republican state than NV and NV's long history of polling being biased in favor Rs? Walker could definitely lose, but if he does, there’s no way Laxalt is even coming close to winning.
You do realize multiple polls showed Laxalt ahead, and even if you account for NV's polling bias, he's holding up better then Walker? Also, WI isn't really redder then NV, apart from 2016.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #13 on: October 17, 2018, 05:41:45 PM »
Tilt Wisconsin.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #14 on: October 17, 2018, 05:48:53 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 17, 2018, 04:30:59 PM
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on October 17, 2018, 12:45:43 PM
This. You guys are overdoing it on the Safe D Nevada nonsense. If polls have Republicans narrowly leading the race is at least competitive.

So we’re supposed to ignore the Marquette poll, the fact that WI is a more Republican state than NV and NV's long history of polling being biased in favor Rs? Walker could definitely lose, but if he does, there’s no way Laxalt is even coming close to winning.

While I am nervous for Wiscosnin after the last MU poll, it is kind of blind to think an incumbant governor who has only led in two polls has a better chance of winning. Plus, 538 as WI's governor race as Lean D, while Nevada's is a toss-up.

Also, if ticketsplitting does not make a comeback (like people on Atlas think), then Evers will ride Baldwin's coattails.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2018, 05:51:40 PM »

Evers has lead in 6/7 polls and Sisolak has trailed in 5/7 polls

Sisolak 2nd tier, not 1st tier candidate
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pops
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« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2018, 06:48:57 PM »
The numbers say Nevada, but my heart says Wisconsin.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2018, 07:21:21 PM »
Quote from: katman46 on October 17, 2018, 06:48:57 PM
The numbers say Nevada, but my heart says Wisconsin.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2019, 04:30:48 PM »
This thread didn't age well.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2019, 11:46:02 PM »

Not sure why I quoted that and voted for Nevada. In my final prediction, I had Evers and Sisolak both winning by 4. Obviously, I should've relied more on gut instinct than poll aggregates in the Midwest.
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