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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)
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Author Topic: AZ NYT/Siena: McSally +4 (poll is incomplete)  (Read 1742 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #25 on: October 17, 2018, 12:14:14 pm »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
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« Reply #26 on: October 17, 2018, 12:16:07 pm »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.

They do list the results of many different turnout models.  Among "the types of people who voted in 2014", McSally is +9.
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Beet
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« Reply #27 on: October 17, 2018, 12:22:22 pm »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

They're probably assuming that turnout will look like it has (at least in terms or race and age) in previous midterms.

They do list the results of many different turnout models.  Among "the types of people who voted in 2014", McSally is +9.

If Trump's approval rating is like 20% in CA/NY/MA/MD-DC-NoVa it could really skew the numbers.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2018, 12:25:31 pm »
« Edited: October 17, 2018, 12:32:29 pm by Oryxslayer »

Delete this post, please wait until the poll is completed. Would you guys have liked it if I posted the NYT TX/TN polls at moments when the dem was ahead? No - you are jumping the gun in the worst way possible.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #29 on: October 17, 2018, 12:31:06 pm »

Delete this post, please with until the poll is completed. Would you guys have liked it if I posted the NYT TX/TN polls at moments when the dem was ahead? No - you are jumping the gun in the worst way possible.

I considered deleting it, but given that it was driving discussion and the OP made an honest mistake, and the poll will close soon enough, I am experimenting with keeping it open and having it transition to be the final poll thread.

I *do* think active discussion of these polls fits best in the megathread on the Congressional board for Upshot polls.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #30 on: October 17, 2018, 01:01:01 pm »

I'm confused why Trump approval in many of these state polls is so at odds with the national polls. If Trump is -10 nationwide, there's no way he should be +6 in AZ, or -1 in NV, or even +7 in TX.

Unfortunately, they have an issue with R oversampling in a lot of these polls IMO
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DrScholl
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« Reply #31 on: October 17, 2018, 01:06:49 pm »

Posting incomplete polls should not be allowed. The poll clearly states "continues soon".
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #32 on: October 17, 2018, 01:32:38 pm »

I considered deleting it, but given that it was driving discussion and the OP made an honest mistake, and the poll will close soon enough, I am experimenting with keeping it open and having it transition to be the final poll thread.

I *do* think active discussion of these polls fits best in the megathread on the Congressional board for Upshot polls.

Yeah, there has been some ongoing discussion of the AZ poll in the megathread. IMO this belongs there and it would make sense to merge this thread into that, it will just confuse people to keep it here.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #33 on: October 17, 2018, 09:37:26 pm »

...back to

Sinema 47

McSally 47

LOL
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Monstro
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« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2018, 11:38:03 pm »

This incomplete poll was apparently too big for the NYT/Siena poll thread?
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DataGuy
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« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2018, 11:40:33 pm »

This poll is pretty much turning out just as I expected so far. Sinema started with unrealistically high numbers in key groups but the poll shifted to about even as whites moved to the Republicans and non-whites moved to the Democrats.

Things usually level out somewhat by this point, so the final results probably won't be too different.  If I had to guess, I would say it ends up around McSally +2.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2018, 11:45:24 pm »

This poll is pretty much turning out just as I expected so far. Sinema started with unrealistically high numbers in key groups but the poll shifted to about even as whites moved to the Republicans and non-whites moved to the Democrats.

Things usually level out somewhat by this point, so the final results probably won't be too different.  If I had to guess, I would say it ends up around McSally +2.

It started out pretty strange with Sinema up big with age 65+ voters and McSally up big with hispanic voters.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #37 on: October 18, 2018, 01:38:07 am »

The numbers moved to McSally + 1, still incomplete. Therefore, I'm locking this thread.
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