Potential Pub POC Paradox?

[Free Bird]

I've been thinking a lot about how the Republican Party needs to improve its minority outreach and thought of ways they could do so. One way I thought of, mainly targeted to blacks and, to some extent, Hispanics, would be to actually talk about structural inequalities, about police brutality, about the drug war, about the school-prison pipeline, about crime, about the effects of redlining, and so forth, and how they would fix them. You know, actually acknowledging the issues that large swaths of these voters think you don't care about!

In my opinion, this could really help them, both from an image and electoral perspective, solidifying Georgia and North Carolina, making Michigan a true swing state, and putting Virginia and Colorado in their camp once again.

Then that got me thinking more. Would these appeals possibly backfire at all? Would it piss off the "cops can do no wrong" type and Buckleyite "personal responsibility, help you help yourself with hope" type conservatives? Would they (including suburbanites, as if there weren't already enough problems holding them) think they're "giving into criminals and welfare slobs" or whatever and thus not vote for them? Other groups? I would be interested in what Atlas has to say.

So here is the question for the poll: If Republicans tried reaching out to POC by talking about institutional problems holding them back, criminal justice, police brutality, the drug war, redlining, urban decay, and so on, with a genuine understanding that personal responsibility itself can't solve them all, would this have the unwanted side effect of hurting them with other parts of their traditional base, or would it only be helpful?

Discuss

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Speaking of African American support, the GOP's present circumstances are the result of a "self-fulfilling prophesy layered over itself.

"Well the Democrats are the party of Jim Crow and yet 70% of them voted for FDR"


"Well Ike did this, this and this and the Dems put a segregationist on the ticket and yet they only gave Ike 39%"

"Well Javits only gets 20%, so most any Republican is going to struggle to get 15%"

At each stage there is some group that seems more achievable. Be it middle class irish/Italians, Southern suburbanites, rural appalachia etc. Parties are naturally inclined to seek what they view as the path of least resistance.

This doesn't get into the strategic shunning of blacks all the way back to 1876, with increments of such being added in 1900, 1928, 1964, 1968, 1980 and so on. Even down to the strategy pushed by Kevin Phillips, who advocated aggressive enforcement of the VRA, not because it is the right thing to do, but because they would then join the local Democratic party, take it over and then scare racist whites into leaving their ancestral affiliation with the Dems and instead join the GOP.

There is a big gulf between the movement conservatism and minority voters because a lot of the issues that affect minorities require some level of government interaction and thus it is difficult for them to maintain their purity cards with Grover Norquist and also reach out to minorities.

[DavidB.]

Lol, obviously minorities are still going to lean Democratic in this scenario and a lot of white voters just won't turn out for the Republicans anymore.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The problem with this idea is that any sudden change is going to seem like a gimmick and thus not work.

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

They'd be murdered in the primaries if they even tried it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The best tactic is a cynically sectarian one: rather than picking off "POC" as a whole, you identify tensions between particular ethnicities and inflame them. In America, this will be much easier to do by playing up Asians and White Hispanics (and African migrants?) against African-Americans. (And also everyone against the "hipster elite", if you grabbed a Rob Ford style figure).

On paper, an African-American addition to the Trumpist white base would be quite a brutal coalition for the Democrats: on paper African Americans are suffering from many of the identified problems that Obama-Trump white voters do (community collapse, drug issues, undereducation) etc. Of course, a mix of the extremely politicized African American community (rooted in the legacy of the CR era) and the wedge issues you speak of will make it hard to really do much in that community - maybe you'll start to peel off some Generation Z AA's, especially the males. More fruitful I feel would be trying to get Asians competitive again: they're a group with fairly low turnout and (seemingly) little connection to Democratic wedge issues. Internationally, Chinese voters (to give the largest diaspora) in western countries are often fairly competitive even amongst conservative and anti-immigration parties like the LNP.

[Torie]

If handled right it should pay some dividends. Even if it loses some white voters, I suspect it will gain other white voters, that more than matches any losses. Where there is unfair treatment and barriers, they just need to be calmly catalogued and sensible approaches to addressing them advanced. And that doesn't need to be necessarily in a way where cops think they are the losers. Things like street beats and body cameras, and better training, and more careful vetting of who gets to be a cop, are a win-win for everyone.

[DC Al Fine]

Some thoughts:

1) I've long thought that the GOP should invest in minorities and the Dems should invest in Evangelicals. Not because they can win those groups, but because narrowing the margins is devastating to the other side. Blacks voting 20% GOP or Evangelicals 30% Dem would make a huge impact.

2) I think Free Birds suggestions are a bit too wonkish for non-Atlas users but there are a decent amount of populist issues that the GOP could use to appeal to different minority groups. Build Baby Build would be popular, and I see Asians getting annoyed with affirmative action as Crabcake mentioned

3) A coalition resembling Rob Ford's (with some obvious exceptions... the GOP isnt going to win the black vote ) seems increasingly plausible as educated prosperous suburbanites move left. As NC Yankee noted, GOP fiscal orthodoxy precluded a lot of appeals to minorities even if the politics weren't racist per se. I predict that as the GOP coalition becomes more downscale, GOP politicians will become increasingly comfortable embracing right wing populist economics, which should in turn flip some non-white voters.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

It depends a lot on the specific issue and how it's framed.   Criminal justice reform is a great issue for Republicans to embrace because a lot of evangelicals and libertarian-leaners like it anyways.  But talking about "police brutality" is dangerous because the last thing you want to be seen as is anti-cop. 

[All Along The Watchtower]

Nah, they should keep going down the White Identity Politics road and continue to suppress the vote in the states they control - assuming they want to remain in power.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The GOP can keep winning if they increase their support with whites with no degree while holding the same percentage share they currently get with minorities. Hispanics can seemingly never be bothered to show up, Asians are too small a group and clustered in areas the GOP don’t need (blue states + urban areas), and they haven’t received more than 14% of the African American vote since the 1960’s.

[The Dowager Mod]

They could start by not calling Michelle Obama a monkey.

[Nyvin]

If they tried to do this the hardline conservatives in their party (about ~70% of the Republican Party currently) would flip the hell out and form their own party.  

I don't think you understand your own party all that well.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

If the GOP was truly capable of making the efforts the OP suggests - even if only for cynical political purposes - it would disintigrate.

The modern GOP is a cult. Not just a cult of Trump, though he has become its current prophet, but a cult that takes all the worst in themselves and America, and doesn't try to be better, instead choosing to excuse, justify, and enable all their worst impulses.

Perhaps some future version of the GOP - with or without a name change - will embrace these sort of ideas. But first, it would need to go back to being a political party (even if its a party with a lot of anti-civilization bigots), instead of an evil cult.

[gottsu]

Gaining support of minorities for Republicans wasn't a problem in 2002, when Hispanics helped achieve gains (yes, gains) for presidential party in midterm elections. But fundamental condition is that GOP must leave trumpism deep down in a Republican wardrobe and revive neoconservative spirit of 70s and 80s when in 1980 both Reagan and Bush outshouted each other who is more pro-immigrant, and learn next why when president, Reagan signed amnesty for 3 million immigrants and why he founded Diversity Visa program.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is what the GOP should do for that issue(and they should be able to keep 95% of their base if they do this):

- Support Marijuana Decriminalization at the very least

- Support ending 3 strikes you are out laws and mandatory minimums for the vast majority of crimes while supporting the Death Penalty for Terrorists and Murderers in which you can prove beyond all doubt(just not reasonable).

- Support easing up zoning regulations

- Advocate for this version of immigration reform: Allow illegal immigrants who have been here for more than 5 years to be eligible to become Permanent Residents but ineligible for citizenship. Support making it easier for H1B visa holders and International Graduates of American Universities  to get Green Cards and eventually become citizens while at the same time aggressively enforcing E-Verify.

- Be in support of all types of Domestic Energy Sources

[RINO Tom]

The GOP can keep winning if they increase their support with whites with no degree while holding the same percentage share they currently get with minorities. Hispanics can seemingly never be bothered to show up, Asians are too small a group and clustered in areas the GOP don’t need (blue states + urban areas), and they haven’t received more than 14% of the African American vote since the 1960’s.

I would imagine there is the same ceiling with "Whites with no degree" as there is with most other groups ... and the GOP is close to it.

[Beet]

This would be nice but as much as I hate to agree with Technocracy Timmy, I fear we are headed towards an Alabamization of American politics... as I predicted in 2016. Only black candidates like Kamala Harris and Cory Booker will be able to win the D nomination and eventually the SJW will push like 80% of working class whites (and many educated whites) to the GOP. The civil rights act and voting rights act will be repealed and we will go back to apartheid South Africa, basically.

[Technocracy Timmy]

The GOP can keep winning if they increase their support with whites with no degree while holding the same percentage share they currently get with minorities. Hispanics can seemingly never be bothered to show up, Asians are too small a group and clustered in areas the GOP don’t need (blue states + urban areas), and they haven’t received more than 14% of the African American vote since the 1960’s.

I would imagine there is the same ceiling with "Whites with no degree" as there is with most other groups ... and the GOP is close to it.

Perhaps but for now they’re by far and away the path of least resistance for the GOP.