MN-Change Research: Klobuchar +9, Smith +3

[ON Progressive]

Klobuchar (D-inc) 50
Newberger (R) 41

Tina Smith (D) 46
Karin Housley (R) 43

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nHaf6GeLgwHTUaJyvQMQcbP7ATsYv0vWAZgqFTKwYCo/edit#gid=0

Needless to say, this is a junk poll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh my

[Beet]

I have this WI-Sen, NJ-Sen and MN-Special on my list of "sleeper races."

[ON Progressive]

I have this WI-Sen, NJ-Sen and MN-Special on my list of "sleeper races."

LOL @ you thinking MN-Special is a sleeper race when actually good pollsters, not garbage like Change Research, have Smith ahead by double digits.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

[Politician]

#KlobucharUnder51
#SmithUnder44
#RedStateMinnesota

[wbrocks67]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

Change is not a reliable pollster for anyone. It's not a D or R pollster, just a junk one.

And what would Ellison have to do with any of these races? Sure, let's ignore the numerous and numerous polls have Klobuchar in +20 or +30 and go with the +9 one!

[Arkansas Yankee]

At least this pollster does not sit on his polls.

[Beet]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

Change is not a reliable pollster for anyone. It's not a D or R pollster, just a junk one.

And what would Ellison have to do with any of these races? Sure, let's ignore the numerous and numerous polls have Klobuchar in +20 or +30 and go with the +9 one!

They were the only pollster to have Gillum pipping Graham. I'm not saying the Change poll is necessarily accurate, or the best, but it's a poll. There's too much of a tendency around here to dismiss polls that don't herd. If you want to ding it for an (overall) poor track record go ahead, but dismissing it entirely when you would be saying stuff like "about right" if it showed results in line with what you expect is not right.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

Change is not a reliable pollster for anyone’s. It's not a D or R pollster, just a junk one.

And what would Ellison have to do withstand any of these races? Sure, let's ignore the numerous and numerous polls have Klobuchar in +20 or +30 and go with the +9 one!

Problems like Ellison often have a tendacy to bleed over in to other races.  They motivate the other party.

[ON Progressive]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

Change is not a reliable pollster for anyone. It's not a D or R pollster, just a junk one.

And what would Ellison have to do with any of these races? Sure, let's ignore the numerous and numerous polls have Klobuchar in +20 or +30 and go with the +9 one!

They were the only pollster to have Gillum pipping Graham. I'm not saying the Change poll is necessarily accurate, or the best, but it's a poll. There's too much of a tendency around here to dismiss polls that don't herd. If you want to ding it for an (overall) poor track record go ahead, but dismissing it entirely when you would be saying stuff like "about right" if it showed results in line with what you expect is not right.

Even with Gillum, they overstated his lead by 7 points. They are not a pollster that is worth anything, and half the reason I posted this poll just to get amusement from people like you and Arkansas Yankee trying to treat it like it's gospel.

[Xing]

Riiiiiiight.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Riiiiiiight.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

I'm curious to see your predictions. I'm being serious.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tina Smith was never going to win a blowout

[UncleSam]

I mean I’d be more surprised if Smith won by fifteen the way most of Atlas expects than if she wins by five. The Klobuchar number implies that this sample tilted heavily R though, which just reinforces what we already know: MN - Sen is Safe D and the special is Likely D.

[Ebsy]

Change Research should shut down.

[Person Man]

R internal

[Arkansas Yankee]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

I'm curious to see your predictions. I'm being serious.x

Don’t hold your breath too long.  I do not do a lot of public predicting.  I do a whole lot of personal hoping.

The other thing I note in these Change polls of the Minnesota races is the huge gender gaps in every race.  The gaps are created by both genders voting very differently.

After 2016 I would think everyone would be cautious about predicting.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Bull****!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

I'm curious to see your predictions. I'm being serious.x

Don’t hold your breath too long.  I do not do a lot of public predicting.  I do a whole lot of personal hoping.

The other thing I note in these Change polls of the Minnesota races is the huge gender gaps in every race.  The gaps are created by both genders voting very differently.

After 2016 I would think everyone would be cautious about predicting.

So do you have any guesses for Manchin?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

I'm curious to see your predictions. I'm being serious.x

Don’t hold your breath too long.  I do not do a lot of public predicting.  I do a whole lot of personal hoping.

The other thing I note in these Change polls of the Minnesota races is the huge gender gaps in every race.  The gaps are created by both genders voting very differently.

After 2016 I would think everyone would be cautious about predicting.

Yeah before Kavanaugh confirmation, Dems were on their way to win Senate and House and Gov mansions. Now, it's back to status quo

[Atlas Force]

Ah, the pollster that had Tom Perriello, Roy Moore, Marie Newman, and Jeanne Ives winning their respective races.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I thought this was a Democratic pollster. 😂

Maybe this is warning signal that the Democrats actually have an electoral problem with Ellison.

I'm curious to see your predictions. I'm being serious.x

Don’t hold your breath too long.  I do not do a lot of public predicting.  I do a whole lot of personal hoping.

The other thing I note in these Change polls of the Minnesota races is the huge gender gaps in every race.  The gaps are created by both genders voting very differently.

After 2016 I would think everyone would be cautious about predicting.

So do you have any guesses for Manchin?

My guess he wins.  The GOP picked the wrong opponent. 

That being said.  Some GOP pollsters have shown a close race.  538 seriously adjusted them for house effect and possibly other reasons.   But what if they are correct?  Then when voting how many folks will change there minds to show there support for the President. What if some Democrats do not vote for because of his vote for Kavanaugh.

[Minnesota Mike]

I mean I’d be more surprised if Smith won by fifteen the way most of Atlas expects than if she wins by five. The Klobuchar number implies that this sample tilted heavily R though, which just reinforces what we already know: MN - Sen is Safe D and the special is Likely D.

Agree.  If Smith and Walz are within 6 points of Klobuchar's margin on election night it is going to be a very good night for Democrats.

FWIW I think Smith and Walz win by upper single digits.