Thurmond/Wright become 1948 “Democratic” nominees in GA, AR, TX, FL

[mianfei]

One question seldom asked but extremely obvious is what would have happened in 1948 if Strom Thurmond and Fielding Wright had been able to seize the “Democratic” label not only in Mississippi, South Carolina, Alabama and Louisiana, but also in Georgia, Arkansas, Texas and Florida? It is implausible the Dixiecrats could have done so in all former Confederate states because of powerful Mountain Republicanism in North Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia, but how would the 1948 elections have panned out if Thurmond had become the official “Democratic” nominee in Georgia (most likely case), Arkansas, Texas and Florida (most unlikely case)? I am assuming Truman/Barkley electors do make the ballot as a de jure third-party candidate in all these states, as they actually did in Mississippi, South Carolina and Louisiana.

Would Truman have won any of those states as a de jure third-party candidate?

If Thurmond did carry all those states as the “Democratic” nominee, what would have happened in the House of Representatives. Would Thurmond have actually become a compromise President, and what impact would this have had on the future of American politics?

[morgankingsley]

If this happened, I don't think it would be all that out of the realm of possibility that Wallace focuses a mega concentrated campaign in New York and California and pull narrow wins there in order to beat Thurmond in the electoral vote

[mianfei]

I myself have generally thought that Thurmond, if he had been the “Democratic” nominee, would have carried Georgia (though by a smaller margin than even Louisiana), but that Truman would have won as a de jure third party candidate in Arkansas and Texas. Florida, where transplanted northerners were already voting for GOP presidential candidates in some numbers in the centre and south of the state, might have been split and gone to Dewey, leaving this map:

The 284 electoral votes would still be enough for Truman, but the 32 as a de jure third party candidate would have nonetheless been critical.

[morgankingsley]

I think thurmond would also win Arkansas in this world

[Alben Barkley]

If this happened, I don't think it would be all that out of the realm of possibility that Wallace focuses a mega concentrated campaign in New York and California and pull narrow wins there in order to beat Thurmond in the electoral vote

Wallace didn’t have any chance of winning any state in 1948. He was seen as a communist, essentially, or a Soviet sympathizer who was too soft on communism at best. His best state was New York, where he got 8% of the vote and spoiled Truman. But there was no way he was gonna build enough support to win even one state, even if he “mega concentrated” on it. And since he already got enough support there to spoil Truman, not clear what more effect he could have. I suppose if he concentrated on California instead, he might have been able to spoil Truman there (it was very close). That would hand the election to Dewey if Truman lost too much Southern support as a result of Thurmond being the “official” Democrat in more states. But he got less than 5% in CA, not clear how much more he could have gotten, and he definitely wouldn’t have been able to win it.

[morgankingsley]

If this happened, I don't think it would be all that out of the realm of possibility that Wallace focuses a mega concentrated campaign in New York and California and pull narrow wins there in order to beat Thurmond in the electoral vote

Wallace didn’t have any chance of winning any state in 1948. He was seen as a communist, essentially, or a Soviet sympathizer who was too soft on communism at best. His best state was New York, where he got 8% of the vote and spoiled Truman. But there was no way he was gonna build enough support to win even one state, even if he “mega concentrated” on it. And since he already got enough support there to spoil Truman, not clear what more effect he could have. I suppose if he concentrated on California instead, he might have been able to spoil Truman there (it was very close). That would hand the election to Dewey if Truman lost too much Southern support as a result of Thurmond being the “official” Democrat in more states. But he got less than 5% in CA, not clear how much more he could have gotten, and he definitely wouldn’t have been able to win it.

Looking back, I know that now. But I made that post 2 years ago, when I wasn't aware of the full nature of his campaign

[morgankingsley]

In this world, I can imagine these states playing out this way

With Thurmond getting the nomination in more states, Truman probably picks up a little bit more pace, and flips Indiana, but fails to flip anything else, leaving him just below the mark. In the house, Truman wins by either making a deal with Dewey or Thurmond. I don't see a world where either Thurmond or Dewey win in this alternate universe