Why is Heitkamp so vulnerable...

[Tekken_Guy]

...but Manchin, Tester, McCaskill, and Donnelly aren’t that much?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

McCaskill and Donnelly are certainly vulnerable too.

[Tekken_Guy]

McCaskill and Donnelly are certainly vulnerable too.

I didn’t say they weren’t vulnerable, just not compared to Heitkamp.

[Pericles]

McCaskill and Donnelly are certainly vulnerable too.

I didn’t say they weren’t vulnerable, just not compared to Heitkamp.

It does seem weird which suggests there is a polling error one way or another, either Heitkamp is losing by less(maybe low single digits) or McCaskill and Donnelly are more vulnerable and are underwater. After all Iowa polling a lot to the right of Wisconsin and Michigan etc ultimately did prove to be a bellwether and indicator Clinton would have trouble in her firewall.

[Xing]

There is at least a sizable Democratic base in IN, MO, and MT. While it's not enough for a Democrat to win (especially in a presidential race), these candidates at least have a decent floor of support that they can count on. Heitkamp doesn't, and is relying almost entirely on crossover support. While Trump won IN, MO, and MT by about 20% (he was a pretty good fit for all three states), he won ND by 36%, so that should already show how much heavier of a lift ND is.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

There is at least a sizable Democratic base in IN, MO, and MT. While it's not enough for a Democrat to win (especially in a presidential race), these candidates at least have a decent floor of support that they can count on. Heitkamp doesn't, and is relying almost entirely on crossover support. While Trump won IN, MO, and MT by about 20% (he was a pretty good fit for all three states), he won ND by 36%, so that should already show how much heavier of a lift ND is.

Largely agree with this (not so sure that MT has that much of a larger D base than ND), but as much as this board throws around "ancestral democrats" to talk about disaffected voters in Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, etc., it's worth keeping in mind that Eastern North Dakota has a lot of people that fall under this umbrella too. Scandanavian populist voters (in the non meme-y sense) in the same mold as a lot of rural DFL voters across the border. Obama won some of these counties in '08. Obviously a lot of that support has dissipated with the change in the state's economy in the last decade, but these Heitkamp voters are much more likely to be Conrad/Dorgan voters than traditional Republicans.

[henster]

If ND were more like SD and not so resource heavy then she'd have no problems. But she gets thousands of new constituents who come and go every year who work in energy.

[Arkansas Yankee]

It maybe because large numbers of residents of North Dakota understand that a Democrat majority Senate would do everything it could to shut down North Dakota’s fossil fuel energy development.  They also understand that would include the shutting down of the appointment of individuals who support fossil fuel development. And Heitkamp would likely have no ability too change these actions.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

(not so sure that MT has that much of a larger D base than ND)

MT definitely has much more of a Dem base.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html

Look at Bozeman, Butte, Anaconda, Helena, Missoula, and also the Native American reservations.

[Blair]

It maybe because large numbers of residents of North Dakota understand that a Democrat majority Senate would do everything it could to shut down North Dakota’s fossil fuel energy development.  They also understand that would include the shutting down of the appointment of individuals who support fossil fuel development. And Heitkamp would likely have no ability too change these actions.

Beyond shutting the government down for the next two years- the Democratic majority won't shut down the fossil fuel industry

[IceSpear]

There is at least a sizable Democratic base in IN, MO, and MT. While it's not enough for a Democrat to win (especially in a presidential race), these candidates at least have a decent floor of support that they can count on. Heitkamp doesn't, and is relying almost entirely on crossover support. While Trump won IN, MO, and MT by about 20% (he was a pretty good fit for all three states), he won ND by 36%, so that should already show how much heavier of a lift ND is.

Largely agree with this (not so sure that MT has that much of a larger D base than ND), but as much as this board throws around "ancestral democrats" to talk about disaffected voters in Oklahoma, Arkansas, West Virginia, etc., it's worth keeping in mind that Eastern North Dakota has a lot of people that fall under this umbrella too. Scandanavian populist voters (in the non meme-y sense) in the same mold as a lot of rural DFL voters across the border. Obama won some of these counties in '08. Obviously a lot of that support has dissipated with the change in the state's economy in the last decade, but these Heitkamp voters are much more likely to be Conrad/Dorgan voters than traditional Republicans.

Montana definitely has a decent sized Democratic base, certainly bigger than North Dakota's. Remember when underfunded random state Rep Amanda Curtis cracked 40% against the guy who represented the entire state in Congress after the incumbent Democrat dropped out due to a plagiarism scandal, and in 2014 of all years? She even did better than Mark Pryor despite their races being rated "solid R" vs. "toss up/lean R" respectively, lol.

Anyway, xingkerui summed it up pretty well.

[YE]

It maybe because large numbers of residents of North Dakota understand that a Democrat majority Senate would do everything it could to shut down North Dakota’s fossil fuel energy development.  They also understand that would include the shutting down of the appointment of individuals who support fossil fuel development. And Heitkamp would likely have no ability too change these actions.

That wouldn't explain why the Dakotas were so democratic friendly pre-Obama downballot.

[Fargobison]

Cramer was always a big threat, he has spent a lot of his time building up his presence with energy interests. He also took a gamble and jumped headfirst onto the Trump train early, which is paying off for him.

Heidi ran close to a perfect campaign against Berg and barely beat him...she was always going to be vulnerable. ND is a weird state, the east is much more moderate while the west is like Wyoming. I also think in the past, especially when Dorgan and Conrad were winning races older voters were more moderate, especially in rural areas. Those people are dying off and being replaced by more conservative voters.

[libertpaulian]

It maybe because large numbers of residents of North Dakota understand that a Democrat majority Senate would do everything it could to shut down North Dakota’s fossil fuel energy development.  They also understand that would include the shutting down of the appointment of individuals who support fossil fuel development. And Heitkamp would likely have no ability too change these actions.

That wouldn't explain why the Dakotas were so democratic friendly pre-Obama downballot.

Democrats didn't start to become overtly hostile to coal and fossil fuel energy until Gore 2000.  Obama 2008 was when the feelings truly manifested themselves, though, and the Dems have been on a downward spiral in oil and coal states ever since.

[Person Man]

It maybe because large numbers of residents of North Dakota understand that a Democrat majority Senate would do everything it could to shut down North Dakota’s fossil fuel energy development.  They also understand that would include the shutting down of the appointment of individuals who support fossil fuel development. And Heitkamp would likely have no ability too change these actions.

That wouldn't explain why the Dakotas were so democratic friendly pre-Obama downballot.

Democrats didn't start to become overtly hostile to coal and fossil fuel energy until Gore 2000.  Obama 2008 was when the feelings truly manifested themselves, though, and the Dems have been on a downward spiral in oil and coal states ever since.

So it's quite simple. Big Oil.

Then again, how is Manchin hanging on?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So it's quite simple. Big Oil.

Then again, how is Manchin hanging on?

Joe Manchin, WV Populist Maoist, understands that power flows from the barrel of a gun.

[Politician]

Then again, how is Manchin hanging on?

Morrissey is a terrible candidate.

[freepcrusher]

maybe if Conrad had stayed on - he would have scared away a serious gop challenger

[YE]

It maybe because large numbers of residents of North Dakota understand that a Democrat majority Senate would do everything it could to shut down North Dakota’s fossil fuel energy development.  They also understand that would include the shutting down of the appointment of individuals who support fossil fuel development. And Heitkamp would likely have no ability too change these actions.

That wouldn't explain why the Dakotas were so democratic friendly pre-Obama downballot.

Democrats didn't start to become overtly hostile to coal and fossil fuel energy until Gore 2000.  Obama 2008 was when the feelings truly manifested themselves, though, and the Dems have been on a downward spiral in oil and coal states ever since.

That wouldn’t explain why the Dokotas were competitiveish in 2008.

[DataGuy]

McCaskill and Donnelly are certainly vulnerable too.

I think it's a mistake to leave Tester out. He does have the edge, but people seem to forget that not much high-quality polling has been done in MT and the few polls that are out there show a race in the low single-digits. Hardly something to take for granted.

[TML]

Here are some factors which work against her:

-The Republican presidential margin increased by 16 points from 2012 (when she was last on the ballot) to 2016 (the most recent presidential election)
-Her opponent this year is more capable than her opponent in 2012
-She is not very popular among Native Americans due to her support of DAPL (If she had been more popular, I think there would now be a huge effort to get Native Americans proper ID to vote, which does not appear to be the case right now.)

While I agree that she is not the favorite at this moment, I will wait for polls in late October/early November before deciding whether to write her off. If polls during that time show her trailing by more than 5 points, I will probably write her off; if they show her trailing by less than 5 points or leading, I will at least consider this race a jump ball.

[MT Treasurer]

It does seem weird which suggests there is a polling error one way or another, either Heitkamp is losing by less(maybe low single digits) or McCaskill and Donnelly are more vulnerable and are underwater. After all Iowa polling a lot to the right of Wisconsin and Michigan etc ultimately did prove to be a bellwether and indicator Clinton would have trouble in her firewall.

I pretty much agree, this is definitely an underrated possibility. No doubt she’s the most vulnerable red state Democrat, but she’s not going to lose by 15+ points while McCaskill, Donnelly, and Tester cruise to reelection simultaneously.

McCaskill and Donnelly are certainly vulnerable too.

I think it's a mistake to leave Tester out. He does have the edge, but people seem to forget that not much high-quality polling has been done in MT and the few polls that are out there show a race in the low single-digits. Hardly something to take for granted.

jfern loves bold progressives/#populists like Tester, you see.

[Person Man]

The only way to be competitive in enough states to be competitive in the Senate appears to either drop the Environment as an issue or to finally break the energy cartels power over these regions through research, development, and policy.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

McCaskill and Donnelly are certainly vulnerable too.

I think it's a mistake to leave Tester out. He does have the edge, but people seem to forget that not much high-quality polling has been done in MT and the few polls that are out there show a race in the low single-digits. Hardly something to take for granted.

What? But I thought Tester was unironically an unbeatable #megapopulist who would win by >10%?

[VPH]

I think in some of the contested races in GOP areas, Republican voters are "coming home" so to speak Hence why Heitkamp keeps falling despite good fundraising, Ojeda is falling, and people are more bearish on Amy McGrath.