AZ: Change Research (D): Tie

[reagente]

Sinema (D) - 43.7%
McSally (R) - 43.5%

Garcia Internal has AZ SEN tied

https://www.scribd.com/document/390683652/change

[Cashew]

This is a disaster.

[Matty]

Today I learned 43.7=43.5

[BudgieForce]

This is a disaster.

Yes, I agree. Online only polls do tend to be disasters.

[Politician]

13% undecided and decimals? Throw it in the trash.

[Person Man]

13% undecided and decimals? Throw it in the trash.

Just like when I die.

[Skye]

There's something about a D-friendly poll showing a tie that isn't quite right.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Guess who are coming to help McSally?  GW and Romney.  The party is uniting.  Arizona may not flip for a party that has not decided on its message.

[UWS]

Bad news for Sinema. She can't even top McSally in a Democratic internal poll.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I like to remind you all the Sinema has lead consistently in like 7 of the last 9 polls we’ve had

[UWS]

I like to remind you all the Sinema has lead consistently in like 7 of the last 9 polls we’ve had

But most of these polls were published before the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh's nomination at the SCOTUS, which will mobilize the GOP base in the midterms, including in Arizona, enough to keep the senate majority.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I like to remind you all the Sinema has lead consistently in like 7 of the last 9 polls we’ve had

But most of these polls were published before the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh's nomination at the SCOTUS, which will mobilize the GOP base in the midterms, including in Arizona, enough to keep the senate majority.

Yougov and Fox was

[Pandaguineapig]

There definitely seems to have been a shift in the state of the race of even democratic internals are showing this as a tied race

[Webnicz]

I still think Sinema is in a better position than Rosen

[Devout Centrist]

Yes, Change Research, the amazing pollster that gave us Governor Perriello and Senator Roy Moore

To their credit, they did foresee Gillum’s upset victory. But this was after a slew of mistakes

[Xing]

Not a great poll for Sinema, but not the best pollster either.

[History505]

Pure tossup.

[ON Progressive]

Yes, Change Research, the amazing pollster that gave us Governor Perriello and Senator Roy Moore

To their credit, they did foresee Gillum’s upset victory. But this was after a slew of mistakes

Even with Gillum's victory, they way overshot his winning margin.

[DataGuy]

This basically confirms what I was saying on another thread just earlier. Arizona (and Nevada) are real races. Democrats' Senate strategy has fundamentally assumed they will pick up AZ and NV, but now neither one is a sure thing.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Bad news for Sinema. She can't even top McSally in a Democratic internal poll.

We got another hofoid, LL, Lear, etc. etc.

[Calthrina950]

This basically confirms what I was saying on another thread just earlier. Arizona (and Nevada) are real races. Democrats' Senate strategy has fundamentally assumed they will pick up AZ and NV, but now neither one is a sure thing.

This is my view on the matter. Texas and Tennessee appear to be out of reach for the Democrats at this point, so they need to divert resources to Arizona and Nevada to insure a pickup of those states.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guys, this IS bad. Let's not pretend that campaigns in good shape release tied internals.

[ON Progressive]

Guys, this IS bad. Let's not pretend that campaigns in good shape release tied internals.

It wasn’t Sinema who released this. I think Sinema can afford a far better pollster than Change anyway.

[IceSpear]

Guys, this IS bad. Let's not pretend that campaigns in good shape release tied internals.

This isn't Sinema's internal, it's Garcia's. It has Ducey leading by far less than he does in the other polls. Sinema didn't even endorse Garcia, so I doubt he's overly concerned with making her look good. In fact, closing the gap between the two races would make him look better by comparison. This poll only has a 7 point gap, while most of the others have a ~15 point gap. It's junk.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Today I learned 43.7=43.5

That 1 voter difference isn't remotely statistically significant.