Is there any data for how white voters by gender went in each state in 2016?
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  Is there any data for how white voters by gender went in each state in 2016?
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Author Topic: Is there any data for how white voters by gender went in each state in 2016?  (Read 698 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: October 11, 2018, 05:27:14 PM »

The question is as in the title. Is there any available data for how white voters by gender went in each state in the 2016 presidential election? That is, in which states did white women vote Democratic or Republican, and in which states did white men vote Democratic or Republican?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 05:54:30 PM »

The exit polls are your best bet. Anything else (and even exit polls, to be honest) is guesswork.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 04:52:36 PM »

The exit polls are your best bet. Anything else (and even exit polls, to be honest) is guesswork.

Do you have examples of any specific exit polls that might contain this information?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2018, 06:41:36 PM »

The exit polls are your best bet. Anything else (and even exit polls, to be honest) is guesswork.

Do you have examples of any specific exit polls that might contain this information?

CNN's exit polls have it (although not for every state):

MF
StateDRDR
Arizona36564451
California43505740
Colorado38505044
Florida28673660
Georgia16802670
Illinois37544650
Indiana27683560
Iowa31644946
Kentucky20773560
Maine40535439
Michigan29644351
Minnesota39534647
Missouri22723461
Nevada34604352
New Hampshire39545342
New Jersey37574551
New Mexico38484546
New York36595244
North Carolina27683760
Ohio27683956
Oregon44475538
Pennsylvania32644750
South Carolina18763064
Texas23712966
Utah20532744
Virginia29654154
Washington47455536
Wisconsin35594947
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2018, 09:51:46 PM »

The exit polls are your best bet. Anything else (and even exit polls, to be honest) is guesswork.

Do you have examples of any specific exit polls that might contain this information?

CNN's exit polls have it (although not for every state):

MF
StateDRDR
Arizona36564451
California43505740
Colorado38505044
Florida28673660
Georgia16802670
Illinois37544650
Indiana27683560
Iowa31644946
Kentucky20773560
Maine40535439
Michigan29644351
Minnesota39534647
Missouri22723461
Nevada34604352
New Hampshire39545342
New Jersey37574551
New Mexico38484546
New York36595244
North Carolina27683760
Ohio27683956
Oregon44475538
Pennsylvania32644750
South Carolina18763064
Texas23712966
Utah20532744
Virginia29654154
Washington47455536
Wisconsin35594947

That's unfortunate. I wonder if there might be any sources that at least provide estimates of that vote.
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2018, 10:45:17 PM »

Well, we can look at the CCES. It's got a smaller sample size, overvalues third parties, skews toward the Dems (the overall sample comes out to Clinton +6, I believe), and generally shows less racial polarization, but it might be useful?

MF
StateDRDR
Alabama20662862
Alaska24495032
Arizona37543949
Arkansas30583449
California52375633
Colorado37465237
Connecticut47395236
Delaware47394337
DC769897
Florida42504546
Georgia30593256
Hawaii49363835
Idaho30444141
Illinois45405335
Indiana36504046
Iowa41434836
Kansas39444841
Kentucky34574049
Louisiana28572665
Maine35445227
Maryland42435237
Massachusetts50356028
Michigan38464638
Minnesota43425333
Mississippi30572665
Missouri34514541
Montana31543945
Nebraska33544937
Nevada43465238
New Hampshire44375036
New Jersey41484942
New Mexico40434933
New York53375534
North Carolina36514248
North Dakota27434141
Ohio42454743
Oklahoma34533749
Oregon49355432
Pennsylvania36524445
Rhode Island46365436
South Carolina27582562
South Dakota38504339
Tennessee27633752
Texas37513751
Utah29363524
Vermont40234820
Virginia45414840
Washington49365828
West Virginia26623154
Wisconsin42435037
Wyoming42424146

Some states, like Wyoming and Alaska, are based on very small sample sizes.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2018, 12:09:02 AM »

Well, we can look at the CCES. It's got a smaller sample size, overvalues third parties, skews toward the Dems (the overall sample comes out to Clinton +6, I believe), and generally shows less racial polarization, but it might be useful?

MF
StateDRDR
Alabama20662862
Alaska24495032
Arizona37543949
Arkansas30583449
California52375633
Colorado37465237
Connecticut47395236
Delaware47394337
DC769897
Florida42504546
Georgia30593256
Hawaii49363835
Idaho30444141
Illinois45405335
Indiana36504046
Iowa41434836
Kansas39444841
Kentucky34574049
Louisiana28572665
Maine35445227
Maryland42435237
Massachusetts50356028
Michigan38464638
Minnesota43425333
Mississippi30572665
Missouri34514541
Montana31543945
Nebraska33544937
Nevada43465238
New Hampshire44375036
New Jersey41484942
New Mexico40434933
New York53375534
North Carolina36514248
North Dakota27434141
Ohio42454743
Oklahoma34533749
Oregon49355432
Pennsylvania36524445
Rhode Island46365436
South Carolina27582562
South Dakota38504339
Tennessee27633752
Texas37513751
Utah29363524
Vermont40234820
Virginia45414840
Washington49365828
West Virginia26623154
Wisconsin42435037
Wyoming42424146

Some states, like Wyoming and Alaska, are based on very small sample sizes.

It definitely has its flaws, but it might be of some use. I had seen maps, somewhere, showing how whites of each gender voted, in either 2012 or 2016, but I can't remember where I saw them, and how the data was derived for them. Even 2012 statistics on the white vote by gender, by state, would be helpful.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2018, 07:07:57 AM »

Yeah, those numbers look especially atrocious in the South. MS whites @ 28% Clinton? GA whites @ 31%? Clinton would have carried those states with figures like that.

Might want to message reagente and see if he can help: he did the breakdowns of white and non-white vote by county for 2016.

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