The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Heebie Jeebie]

I don't know why everyone gets the idea that Cornyn is titanically more popular than Cruz. Polls don't reflect it, and Cruz, not Cornyn, is the guy who overwhelmingly beat Trump in a Texas presidential primary.

I don't think that.  I think Cornyn is certainly favored to win re-election, but he's hardly a lock.  My best current estimate is that Texas will be around R+2 at the state level in 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio cancelled his planned NH trip for now, but says he plans to reschedule:

https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2019/02/14/bill-de-blasio-puts-trip-to-new-hampshire-on-hold-after-nypd-detective-killed

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Tim Ryan says no timeline for his decision:

link

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[NOVA Green]

Bad move. Cornyn will be much tougher to defeat to Cruz. Beto should not waste his profile on this and become known as the guy from Texas who lost twice while trying to run for Senate.

Nah.  If he wants to hold higher office, he should run now, even if he is likely to lose.  At the very least he would make the state competitive, which means Republicans would have to invest tens of millions more keeping Texas than they otherwise would, draining resources from other competitive states.  That's the kind of thing that can build a lot of good will with the party establishment, and it wouldn't be unreasonable for Beto to expect a prominent job with the next Democratic administration if he gave it his all.

Having said all that, I think Beto is hugely overrated as a politician and some other candidate, Kim Olson maybe, would probably do just as well.

I don't know why everyone gets the idea that Cornyn is titanically more popular than Cruz. Polls don't reflect it, and Cruz, not Cornyn, is the guy who overwhelmingly beat Trump in a Texas presidential primary.

Beet has a good point here, and additionally one must consider that name recognition is likely much higher for BETO in Texas overall than Cornyn, especially among infrequent Democratic leaning voters...

Infrequent Dem leaning voters tend to be much more heavily Working-Class Latino and Anglo Millennials in Tejas, which have a much greater propensity to vote in PRES year elections and not "off year" elections...

Considering BETOs impressive performance in the Anglo Metro parts of Texas, I would not be surprised to see an even closer hypothetical 2020 TX-SEN race than in 2018.

That being said, it's starting to look like BETO is considering a 2020 TX-SEN run rather than a 2020 US-PRES run....

He's already got serious street cred from the TX-18 SEN run, but DEM-PRES '20 looks like a big stretch considering the crowded field against an incumbent REP PRES, where within the ntl DEM Party, Texas doesn't have much recent representation for running winning races....

Apologies if I derailed the thread, but if this report is correct, it looks like BETO is thinking for running for US-SEN-TX in '20 vs US-DEM-PRES '20....

Maybe just exploring options, idk?

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/HenryJGomez/status/1095799512906588160

[RI]

I don't know why everyone gets the idea that Cornyn is titanically more popular than Cruz. Polls don't reflect it, and Cruz, not Cornyn, is the guy who overwhelmingly beat Trump in a Texas presidential primary.

I don't think that.  I think Cornyn is certainly favored to win re-election, but he's hardly a lock.  My best current estimate is that Texas will be around R+2 at the state level in 2020.

Huh? TX was R+11 in 2016 and basically R+9.5 in 2018 (if you're using the House + Beto/Cruz race).

[Karpatsky]

I think this is my favorite article title of the season so far: Sherrod Brown Is Not an Idiot

[136or142]

I think this is my favorite article title of the season so far: Sherrod Brown Is Not an Idiot

Yes, but the author of that article, Rich Lowry, is an idiot.

[Roll Roons]

Biden likely to enter soon:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430028-exclusive-biden-almost-certain-to-enter-2020-race?fbclid=IwAR0E_JscikCLX3JomvvX9s4z7gmn9vFod_EtMbNSoeeJhJlLgYdwdQ_JwnI

[Former Crackhead Mike Lindell]

Biden likely to enter soon:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430028-exclusive-biden-almost-certain-to-enter-2020-race?fbclid=IwAR0E_JscikCLX3JomvvX9s4z7gmn9vFod_EtMbNSoeeJhJlLgYdwdQ_JwnI

Contradicting article drops in 3... 2... 1...

[UWS]

Biden likely to enter soon:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430028-exclusive-biden-almost-certain-to-enter-2020-race?fbclid=IwAR0E_JscikCLX3JomvvX9s4z7gmn9vFod_EtMbNSoeeJhJlLgYdwdQ_JwnI

Indeed. Vanity Fair reports that Biden is 95 % ready to run in 2020.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/02/biden-95-percent-ready-2020-run

[redjohn]

Beto is coming to the University of Wisconsin-Madison tomorrow to talk to students and faculty. Event tickets "sold out" in about ten minutes after minimal advertising; crazy enthusiasm, especially so far out.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/ericbradner/status/1096173945089413122

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

I think this is my favorite article title of the season so far: Sherrod Brown Is Not an Idiot

Yes, but the author of that article, Rich Lowry, is an idiot.

Yeah it is a hilariously bad take. If all you resonable moderate intelligent perfect centrists are all looking for somebody to love, Brown is not your guy just because he isn't cosponsoring X piece of legislation you don't like.

[Mr. Morden]

Bennet going to Iowa for a Feb. 22-23 visit:

https://www.krdo.com/news/colorado-democratic-sen-bennet-set-to-visit-iowa-amid-a-possible-2020-presidential-bid/1019659489

[scutosaurus]

Bennet going to Iowa for a Feb. 22-23 visit:

https://www.krdo.com/news/colorado-democratic-sen-bennet-set-to-visit-iowa-amid-a-possible-2020-presidential-bid/1019659489

God-Emperor Bennet will be our next President. You may not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like.

[Mr. Morden]

It's like 3 in the morning here in Cali, and I woke up and am having a bit of trouble getting back to sleep, but I guess Weld's comments in NH will be happening shortly, at 5am my time, since it'll be 8am on the East Coast: https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/politics-eggs-bill-weld

I still feel like he might just explain the circumstances under which he'd get in the race, as opposed to announcing that he's already getting in or that he's forming an exploratory committee.  But if he does get in now, I do think that'll be a pretty big news story, that an incumbent president is getting a primary challenge for the first time in decades.  Anyway, I hope to be asleep when he's talking, but if you're up and interested, I guess you'll figure out what he's saying via Twitter, and post it for me here, so I can read it once I wake up a couple of hours later. 

[Spiffy]

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1096392057348898817?s=21

[tosk]

It's like 3 in the morning here in Cali, and I woke up and am having a bit of trouble getting back to sleep, but I guess Weld's comments in NH will be happening shortly, at 5am my time, since it'll be 8am on the East Coast: https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/politics-eggs-bill-weld

I still feel like he might just explain the circumstances under which he'd get in the race, as opposed to announcing that he's already getting in or that he's forming an exploratory committee.  But if he does get in now, I do think that'll be a pretty big news story, that an incumbent president is getting a primary challenge for the first time in decades.  Anyway, I hope to be asleep when he's talking, but if you're up and interested, I guess you'll figure out what he's saying via Twitter, and post it for me here, so I can read it once I wake up a couple of hours later. 

on the money

[Tender Branson]

More signs point to Bullock presidential bid

by Maritsa Georgiou - Friday, February 15th 2019

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https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/more-signs-point-to-bullock-presidential-bid

BTW: the 66th Montana Legislature ends on May 1.

[MAINEiac4434]

More signs point to Bullock presidential bid

by Maritsa Georgiou - Friday, February 15th 2019

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https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/more-signs-point-to-bullock-presidential-bid

BTW: the 66th Montana Legislature ends on May 1.

Why would he run for President? The Senate is sitting right there for him!

[Mr. Morden]

O'Rourke looking for strategists for a potential presidential campaign:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/15/beto-orourke-2020-1172360

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[henster]

More signs point to Bullock presidential bid

by Maritsa Georgiou - Friday, February 15th 2019

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https://nbcmontana.com/news/local/more-signs-point-to-bullock-presidential-bid

BTW: the 66th Montana Legislature ends on May 1.

Why would he run for President? The Senate is sitting right there for him!

What is Bullock thinking? May? The first debate is in June. He has little to no name ID, announcing so late dooms whatever little chance he had.

[Mr. Morden]

Sources close to Sanders say he’s leaning towards yes, and by the end of the month:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sources-say-sanders-could-announce-2020-plans-by-end-of-the-month

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John Weaver now says that Kasich is “leaning toward a primary run”, while Hogan is busy with state business for the next ~two months, at which point he might start making some early primary state visits:

https://www.apnews.com/d19d5524b35d4abbaf4f1869a84c965c

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Hickenlooper had previously been saying that he’d decide on whether to run “by March”, which from context made it sound like he meant before March started (in other words, by the end of February), but now he’s talking about by the end of March:

https://www.wmur.com/article/hickenlooper-meets-with-new-hampshire-voters-as-he-considers-white-house-bid/26333585

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Schultz says he might abandon his possible Indy bid for president if the Dems nominate a centrist:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/430232-schultz-says-he-would-reconsider-2020-bid-if-dems-nominate-a-centrist

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Merkley on his 2020 decision:

https://nwlaborpress.org/2019/02/heart-to-heart-with-u-s-senator-jeff-merkley/

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[Mr. Morden]

Abrams:

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/stacey-abrams-i-m-going-run-something-n972291

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What is Bullock thinking? May? The first debate is in June. He has little to no name ID, announcing so late dooms whatever little chance he had.

Yeah, the newly released debate criteria make it especially clear that someone in Bullock's position needs to get in the race now, or risk not being invited to the debates.  Get at least 1% in 3 polls that meet the DNC's criteria?  Bullock isn't even being included as an option in most polls now.  If he got in tomorrow, he probably would start being included in polls, and he'd have a chance to make it in.  Waiting until May makes that much less likely.

[Spiffy]

Wut

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/1096799674902724609?s=21