The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[Lechasseur]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

[Cold War Liberal]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

It's an uphill battle, sure, but it's by no means a given that Republicans will hold the Senate in 2020, especially if the presidency isn't close.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

They absolutely can. They arent the current favorites, but the GOP isnt in overwhelming favor to hold the chamber. It just takes a net of 3, along with the presidency:
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain AZ
Gain either NC/IA
Lose AL

^
Very doable

[Lechasseur]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

They absolutely can. They arent the current favorites, but the GOP isnt in overwhelming favor to hold the chamber. It just takes a net of 3, along with the presidency:
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain AZ
Gain either NC/IA
Lose AL

^
Very doable

That will only happen if 2020 is a landslide imo. CO and AZ are definitely doable (I'd be very surprised if CO doesn't flip), NC isn't impossible but I think Trump will be having a very bad night if he loses NC, and I don't see Tillis losing if Trump doesn't lose NC, and then ME I think is likely R, I think Collins only loses if 2020 is a mega landslide. Same for Iowa. And I don't think the front runners right now, except just maybe Beto (Biden most likely won't get the nomination), are anywhere near capable of that.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

They absolutely can. They arent the current favorites, but the GOP isnt in overwhelming favor to hold the chamber. It just takes a net of 3, along with the presidency:
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain AZ
Gain either NC/IA
Lose AL

^
Very doable

That will only happen if 2020 is a landslide imo. CO and AZ are definitely doable (I'd be very surprised if CO doesn't flip), NC isn't impossible but I think Trump will be having a very bad night if he loses NC, and I don't see Tillis losing if Trump doesn't lose NC, and then ME I think is likely R, I think Collins only loses if 2020 is a mega landslide.

This isnt the landslide map, this is just a good D win map(preferably around D+3-4).

-CO and AL should be obvious flips.
-AZ is very doable, considering how terribly unpopular McSally is to start off.
-You would be very correct on Tillis.....if he werent one of the most unpopular senators in the United States. The Ds could very much mount a strong challenge against him and depose him, just as they did for the similarly unpopular Governor in 2016, even while Trump won the state.
-Similar case in ME. It would only be likely R if Collins was insanely popular like she was in the past. She isnt. Her latest approval has her at an even score(starting off the campaign season, thats pretty bad, especially since approvals are more likely to go down as the campaign starts, not up), and thats simply not enough to win ME.

A D landslide would include more seats flipped, such as GA, MT, and possibly even AK and TX. That would be a landslide.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

They absolutely can. They arent the current favorites, but the GOP isnt in overwhelming favor to hold the chamber. It just takes a net of 3, along with the presidency:
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain AZ
Gain either NC/IA
Lose AL

^
Very doable

That will only happen if 2020 is a landslide imo. CO and AZ are definitely doable (I'd be very surprised if CO doesn't flip), NC isn't impossible but I think Trump will be having a very bad night if he loses NC, and I don't see Tillis losing if Trump doesn't lose NC, and then ME I think is likely R, I think Collins only loses if 2020 is a mega landslide.

This isnt the landslide map, this is just a good D win map(preferably around D+3-4).

-CO and AL should be obvious flips.
-AZ is very doable, considering how terribly unpopular McSally is to start off.
-You would be very correct on Tillis.....if he werent one of the most unpopular senators in the United States. The Ds could very much mount a strong challenge against him and depose him, just as they did for the similarly unpopular Governor in 2016, even while Trump won the state.
-Similar case in ME. It would only be likely R if Collins was insanely popular like she was in the past. She isnt. Her latest approval has her at an even score(starting off the campaign season, thats pretty bad, especially since approvals are more likely to go down as the campaign starts, not up), and thats simply not enough to win ME.

A D landslide would include more seats flipped, such as GA, MT, and possibly even AK and TX. That would be a landslide.

Democrats are clearly the underdog for the 2020 senatorial election (the same way republicans are the underdog in the fight for the house), NC is six to seven points more republican than the rest of the country, so Lechasseur is right, it would require a democratic landslide in order to win it at the presidential level, concerning Tillis, he is not more unpopular than Burr at that time in 2015, so it’s doubtful that he loses while Trump wins the state, besides as we saw in 2014, he is a though campaigner, as for Collins, you should note that her approval numbers are still positive in a PPP poll which speaks for itself, if PPP has Collins at +2, her numbers are probably close to something like +15, she can be defeated but it won’t be easy for democrats.

GA and TX  will be close to impossible to win for democrats, democrats failed to win even one statewide race in both states in 2018 despite the fact this midterm election was the most favorable to them since 1974, Abrams is a basically a communist and she will get destroyed again in rural areas and exurbs and she won’t be able to compensate those heavy losses in the Atlanta metro, as for Cornyn, he is probaly relatively safe no matter who democrats nominate. The idea that MT and AK will be competitive is just ridiculous even in the case of a democratic landslide.

[Mr. Morden]

More on Richard Vague here:

http://www.philly.com/news/democrats-president-richard-vague-philadelphia-investor-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-20190117.html

He has a book coming out in the summer, and says that's also his timeframe for deciding whether to run.  Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Deleted User #4049]

More on Richard Vague here:

http://www.philly.com/news/democrats-president-richard-vague-philadelphia-investor-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-20190117.html

He has a book coming out in the summer, and says that's also his timeframe for deciding whether to run.  Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who?

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

They absolutely can. They arent the current favorites, but the GOP isnt in overwhelming favor to hold the chamber. It just takes a net of 3, along with the presidency:
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain AZ
Gain either NC/IA
Lose AL

^
Very doable

That will only happen if 2020 is a landslide imo. CO and AZ are definitely doable (I'd be very surprised if CO doesn't flip), NC isn't impossible but I think Trump will be having a very bad night if he loses NC, and I don't see Tillis losing if Trump doesn't lose NC, and then ME I think is likely R, I think Collins only loses if 2020 is a mega landslide.

This isnt the landslide map, this is just a good D win map(preferably around D+3-4).

-CO and AL should be obvious flips.
-AZ is very doable, considering how terribly unpopular McSally is to start off.
-You would be very correct on Tillis.....if he werent one of the most unpopular senators in the United States. The Ds could very much mount a strong challenge against him and depose him, just as they did for the similarly unpopular Governor in 2016, even while Trump won the state.
-Similar case in ME. It would only be likely R if Collins was insanely popular like she was in the past. She isnt. Her latest approval has her at an even score(starting off the campaign season, thats pretty bad, especially since approvals are more likely to go down as the campaign starts, not up), and thats simply not enough to win ME.

A D landslide would include more seats flipped, such as GA, MT, and possibly even AK and TX. That would be a landslide.

Democrats are clearly the underdog for the 2020 senatorial election (the same way republicans are the underdog in the fight for the house), NC is six to seven points more republican than the rest of the country, so Lechasseur is right, it would require a democratic landslide in order to win it at the presidential level, concerning Tillis, he is not more unpopular than Burr at that time in 2015, so it’s doubtful that he loses while Trump wins the state, besides as we saw in 2014, he is a though campaigner, as for Collins, you should note that her approval numbers are still positive in a PPP poll which speaks for itself, if PPP has Collins at +2, her numbers are probably close to something like +15, she can be defeated but it won’t be easy for democrats.

GA and TX  will be close to impossible to win for democrats, democrats failed to win even one statewide race in both states in 2018 despite the fact this midterm election was the most favorable to them since 1974, Abrams is a basically a communist and she will get destroyed again in rural areas and exurbs and she won’t be able to compensate those heavy losses in the Atlanta metro, as for Cornyn, he is probaly relatively safe no matter who democrats nominate. The idea that MT and AK will be competitive is just ridiculous even in the case of a democratic landslide.

There are so many leaps in logic and failures to understand how elections work that I could spend an our dissecting them in this thread. But this is for 2020 tea leaves. Ill make a thread about this in the Congressional tab though.

[RaphaelDLG]

Even if
1) Brown is a great candidate
and
2) The Democrats won't win the Senate in 2020 anyways,

Senatorial power is something that is painstakingly built over multiple election cycles, not something that is won in one election, and so every seat counts - his seat could be the difference between taking or not taking the Senate in 2022.

[The Mikado]

Saying GA-Sen is "nearly impossible" for Dems is absurd. David Perdue is a first term Senator and is effectively "generic Republican" and has done little of note in his time in office, and Georgia will be an intensely close state.

TX-Sen is closer to "nearly impossible" just because Cornyn will likely significantly outperform Trump there, but Cornyn is undoubtedly going to have the closest race of his career no matter what.

[ViaActiva]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

[Zaybay]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

[President Johnson]

Interesting points by Chris Cillizza on Sherrod Brown as dark horse nominee:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tg8tyTH2tIQ

[Comrade Funk]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

One's a senator and one's a hypothetical. How you can't differentiate that idk.

[ViaActiva]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

One's a senator and one's a hypothetical. How you can't differentiate that idk.

But surely if Beto O'Rourke is so great 'the next Obama' he should be the Democrats' best chance of taking a Democrat trending state in 2020? Not just a 'hypothetical'?

[Karpatsky]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1085959704860377090

[Mr. Morden]

More on Richard Vague here:

http://www.philly.com/news/democrats-president-richard-vague-philadelphia-investor-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-20190117.html

He has a book coming out in the summer, and says that's also his timeframe for deciding whether to run.  Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who?

This guy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6619381#msg6619381

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1084199866551676929?s=21

Having worked with Liz before this is an amazing hire.

How are anyone remotely related to the Clinton clusterf**k even remotely hirable?

Yeah, you'd think the Hillary staffers would be pariahs after their  up in 2016. It's one thing to lose a race, but Hillary was supposed to win in a landslide and due in large part to her campaign's laziness and mismanagement they didn't.

If Biden hasn't started staffing up yet, he's going to struggle to get top talent. I am not sure there are enough top talent staffers for all the candidates running and the longer you wait the more likely you end up with Robby Mook as your Campaign Manager.

And Brown is just an absolute no. We need that Senate seat and he doesn't bring enough to the table to make giving that up worth it especially with his domestic abuse issues in the past.

I mean, Brown is one of the party's strongest possible candidates. The Democrats are NOT winning the Senate back in 2020 anyway, so who cares if it's 52-48 R or 53-47 R? You're stll in the minority. So I really do not get why you're all rejecting Brown over that. Frankly if I were him I'd be tempted to resign the Senate seat just so you'll all stop holding it against him.

They absolutely can. They arent the current favorites, but the GOP isnt in overwhelming favor to hold the chamber. It just takes a net of 3, along with the presidency:
Gain CO
Gain ME
Gain AZ
Gain either NC/IA
Lose AL

^
Very doable

That will only happen if 2020 is a landslide imo. CO and AZ are definitely doable (I'd be very surprised if CO doesn't flip), NC isn't impossible but I think Trump will be having a very bad night if he loses NC, and I don't see Tillis losing if Trump doesn't lose NC, and then ME I think is likely R, I think Collins only loses if 2020 is a mega landslide.

This isnt the landslide map, this is just a good D win map(preferably around D+3-4).

-CO and AL should be obvious flips.
-AZ is very doable, considering how terribly unpopular McSally is to start off.
-You would be very correct on Tillis.....if he werent one of the most unpopular senators in the United States. The Ds could very much mount a strong challenge against him and depose him, just as they did for the similarly unpopular Governor in 2016, even while Trump won the state.
-Similar case in ME. It would only be likely R if Collins was insanely popular like she was in the past. She isnt. Her latest approval has her at an even score(starting off the campaign season, thats pretty bad, especially since approvals are more likely to go down as the campaign starts, not up), and thats simply not enough to win ME.

A D landslide would include more seats flipped, such as GA, MT, and possibly even AK and TX. That would be a landslide.

Democrats are clearly the underdog for the 2020 senatorial election (the same way republicans are the underdog in the fight for the house), NC is six to seven points more republican than the rest of the country, so Lechasseur is right, it would require a democratic landslide in order to win it at the presidential level, concerning Tillis, he is not more unpopular than Burr at that time in 2015, so it’s doubtful that he loses while Trump wins the state, besides as we saw in 2014, he is a though campaigner, as for Collins, you should note that her approval numbers are still positive in a PPP poll which speaks for itself, if PPP has Collins at +2, her numbers are probably close to something like +15, she can be defeated but it won’t be easy for democrats.

GA and TX  will be close to impossible to win for democrats, democrats failed to win even one statewide race in both states in 2018 despite the fact this midterm election was the most favorable to them since 1974, Abrams is a basically a communist and she will get destroyed again in rural areas and exurbs and she won’t be able to compensate those heavy losses in the Atlanta metro, as for Cornyn, he is probaly relatively safe no matter who democrats nominate. The idea that MT and AK will be competitive is just ridiculous even in the case of a democratic landslide.

There are so many leaps in logic and failures to understand how elections work that I could spend an our dissecting them in this thread. But this is for 2020 tea leaves. Ill make a thread about this in the Congressional tab though.

But Atlas told me Frenchrepublican was a good and thoughtful poster and totally not a moron begging for attention.

Have I said something which is factually wrong ? Now if you want to believe that Abrams will defeat Perdue after losing to Kemp despite a democratic wave, that’s your own problem
I don’t even understand why I’m spending time in order to respond!!

[beaver2.0]

More on Richard Vague here:

http://www.philly.com/news/democrats-president-richard-vague-philadelphia-investor-joe-biden-bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-20190117.html

He has a book coming out in the summer, and says that's also his timeframe for deciding whether to run.  Also:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Who?

This guy:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6619381#msg6619381

I don't get it.  People like Seth Moulton might be unknown outside their district (and this site), but he does have that base of support which may or may not vote for him.  Richard Vague doesn't even have that.  He doesn't even have a wikipedia page.  Even Mark Everson had one before his run, and we all remember how that went.

[RaphaelDLG]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

Because people on here are politico-reading morons

I'd much, much rather prefer Beto to run for. Senate in 2020

[Lognog]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

Because people on here are politico-reading morons

I'd much, much rather prefer Beto to run for. Senate in 2020

it's a legitimate concern that Brown is the only one that can keep that seat when he is the only person to win state wide in Ohio in 2018 and the only democrat to win statewide since 2012. But Texas is completely different from Ohio because instead of moving away from the democrats, it is moving towards so there is more room for other democrats to run against cornyn.

[Askew]

I like how so many people here are opposed to Brown seeking the Presidency instead of keeping his seat in Ohio, but no-one is complaining about the idea of the Democrats' best candidate in Texas running for President and not the Senate. Not inconsistent at all...

Seriously? This is stupid. The Dems hold Brown's seat. If he runs in 2020 and wins, we are down 1 Senate seat. If Beto runs and wins the presidency, it has 0 impact on the Senate makeup. We don't hold that seat.

[MAINEiac4434]

It'll be hard to support Brown in a primary until he stops being to Gillibrand's right on an issue as fundamental as healthcare.