The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[henster]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

[BigVic]

Elizabeth Warren has filed a PEC, meaning she will be running. First candidate to announce his or her nomination.

[beaver2.0]

Elizabeth Warren has filed a PEC, meaning she will be running. First candidate to announce his or her nomination.

Please don't run Elizabeth Warren.

[Coldstream]

Elizabeth Warren has filed a PEC, meaning she will be running. First candidate to announce his or her nomination.

How can you forget John Delaney and Richard Ojeda?

[DaWN]

Elizabeth Warren has filed a PEC, meaning she will be running. First candidate to announce his or her nomination.

How can you forget John Delaney and Richard Ojeda?

The better question is how can you remember them?

[Xeuma]

Elizabeth Warren has filed a PEC, meaning she will be running. First candidate to announce his or her nomination.

How can you forget John Delaney and Richard Ojeda?

Hasn't Casto also announced?

[Joey1996]

She's the first major candidate to announce and it's not even new years yet. I expect all the major players will be in by February.

[Zaybay]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

I think thats a little bit of racist viewpoint to think the African American vote will go to the African American candidate.

Biden could easily take it, Beto could make inroads, and Sanders, in current polling, is winning the AA vote.

While Harris may try to make African Americans her base, I doubt the Deep South African Americans(who vote fundamentally different from Northern African Americans, for some reason) will go uniformly to Booker and Harris.

[Orwell]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

I think thats a little bit of racist viewpoint to think the African American vote will go to the African American candidate.

Biden could easily take it, Beto could make inroads, and Sanders, in current polling, is winning the AA vote.

While Harris may try to make African Americans her base, I doubt the Deep South African Americans(who vote fundamentally different from Northern African Americans, for some reason) will go uniformly to Booker and Harris.

It's not racist it's a fact. Why did Obama win the Black vote in 2008? because he was BLACK it didn't matter anything else. Why did Hillary win the black vote? because she had the support of all the BLACK leaders. Bernie isn't going to win the Black vote. It will go to Biden because he'll have the support of the BLACK establishment.

[tosk]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

I think thats a little bit of racist viewpoint to think the African American vote will go to the African American candidate.

Biden could easily take it, Beto could make inroads, and Sanders, in current polling, is winning the AA vote.

While Harris may try to make African Americans her base, I doubt the Deep South African Americans(who vote fundamentally different from Northern African Americans, for some reason) will go uniformly to Booker and Harris.

It's not racist it's a fact. Why did Obama win the Black vote in 2008? because he was BLACK it didn't matter anything else. Why did Hillary win the black vote? because she had the support of all the BLACK leaders. Bernie isn't going to win the Black vote. It will go to Biden because he'll have the support of the BLACK establishment.

I mean no. Black republicans don't win the black vote (Tim Scott). Obama won the black vote because he was a fantastic speaker, a fantastic nominee for the democrats, and perhaps in part because of the history he would've made. Unbelievably silly to say he won it because he was black. He was a lot more.

[Orwell]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

I think thats a little bit of racist viewpoint to think the African American vote will go to the African American candidate.

Biden could easily take it, Beto could make inroads, and Sanders, in current polling, is winning the AA vote.

While Harris may try to make African Americans her base, I doubt the Deep South African Americans(who vote fundamentally different from Northern African Americans, for some reason) will go uniformly to Booker and Harris.

It's not racist it's a fact. Why did Obama win the Black vote in 2008? because he was BLACK it didn't matter anything else. Why did Hillary win the black vote? because she had the support of all the BLACK leaders. Bernie isn't going to win the Black vote. It will go to Biden because he'll have the support of the BLACK establishment.

I mean no. Black republicans don't win the black vote (Tim Scott). Obama won the black vote because he was a fantastic speaker, a fantastic nominee for the democrats, and perhaps in part because of the history he would've made. Unbelievably silly to say he won it because he was black. He was a lot more.

Then why did Hillary win the black vote in the primary? Bernie seemed to have all the qualities you were talking about Obama had. Then Why did Hillary win the black vote?

[Zaybay]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

I think thats a little bit of racist viewpoint to think the African American vote will go to the African American candidate.

Biden could easily take it, Beto could make inroads, and Sanders, in current polling, is winning the AA vote.

While Harris may try to make African Americans her base, I doubt the Deep South African Americans(who vote fundamentally different from Northern African Americans, for some reason) will go uniformly to Booker and Harris.

It's not racist it's a fact. Why did Obama win the Black vote in 2008? because he was BLACK it didn't matter anything else. Why did Hillary win the black vote? because she had the support of all the BLACK leaders. Bernie isn't going to win the Black vote. It will go to Biden because he'll have the support of the BLACK establishment.

I mean no. Black republicans don't win the black vote (Tim Scott). Obama won the black vote because he was a fantastic speaker, a fantastic nominee for the democrats, and perhaps in part because of the history he would've made. Unbelievably silly to say he won it because he was black. He was a lot more.

Then why did Hillary win the black vote in the primary? Bernie seemed to have all the qualities you were talking about Obama had. Then Why did Hillary win the black vote?

Sanders did win the Black vote in key states, just not in the Deep South. A deeper analysis:

Contrary to all the narratives about 2016, Bernie's biggest obstacle at the onset of voting with black voters was simple name recognition. PPP released a national poll in February 2016 of likely primary voters, with Bernie having 90% fav/unfav among non-black voters and only 50% among black voters (the remaining 10% and one-half had "no opinion", respectively). The only way this was possible was due to name rec and favorability being stand-ins for one another. At the time, my jaw dropped when this poll was released, and that combined with the SC result a few weeks later told me Sanders had no chance whatsoever: he needed at least 35% of black voters to have a shot, and even that would have required Clinton-08 margins among white voters.

If one assumes that a group of voters has to choose between one candidate with high favorables and universal name recognition and another candidate with only 50% name recognition, then it's a safe bet to assume that the voters who don't know the one candidate are going to vote for the other. As crazy as it may sound, simple math suggests that Sanders likely won a solid majority of black voters who actually had an opinion on him and/or knew who he was.

His biggest obstacle this year, across all racial lines, will be the fact that there are so many candidates for voters to consider.

Or this:

It sounds to me like once again "White Democrats" are speaking about the "Black Community".

Honestly I have no idea how well Bernie will perform among Black Voters in the 2020 DEM-PRES Primary (If he elects to run), but what I do know is that performance among African-American Voters in the 2016 DEM-PRES-PRIM not only improved dramatically in early PRIM states towards later in the '16 DEM PRIM season, but additionally in places like California, it looks like Bernie actually did almost as well as HRC did among AA Voters....

I would not assume that because Bernie performed poorly among AA voters in the Deep South in the '16 DEM Primary, that if he runs in '20 that these results will mirror '16.

Northern AA and Younger AA Voters tended to be much more receptive to Sanders than older voters in the South lands....

We will see see how this all goes down in the 2020 DEM Primaries, but anyone who makes assumptions "A$$ out of Sump" might well be speaking with their head out of their arse, especially considering the rise of Millennial Voters and States like TX and CA shifting their primaries towards March, as opposed to the "South Lands" running the show for DEM-PRIM as it has been since '88 and before.

[Orwell]

I was wrong, thank you for proving me wrong. It's good to learn something new. I assumed it was because of her tied at the hip status with the Obama Admin.

[tosk]

Kamala's biggest problem at this point is Cory Booker, she can't dominate the South as long as he's in the race. If either one stays in too long then they probably doom each others chances and greatly help Beto and other white progressives.

I think thats a little bit of racist viewpoint to think the African American vote will go to the African American candidate.

Biden could easily take it, Beto could make inroads, and Sanders, in current polling, is winning the AA vote.

While Harris may try to make African Americans her base, I doubt the Deep South African Americans(who vote fundamentally different from Northern African Americans, for some reason) will go uniformly to Booker and Harris.

It's not racist it's a fact. Why did Obama win the Black vote in 2008? because he was BLACK it didn't matter anything else. Why did Hillary win the black vote? because she had the support of all the BLACK leaders. Bernie isn't going to win the Black vote. It will go to Biden because he'll have the support of the BLACK establishment.

I mean no. Black republicans don't win the black vote (Tim Scott). Obama won the black vote because he was a fantastic speaker, a fantastic nominee for the democrats, and perhaps in part because of the history he would've made. Unbelievably silly to say he won it because he was black. He was a lot more.

Then why did Hillary win the black vote in the primary? Bernie seemed to have all the qualities you were talking about Obama had. Then Why did Hillary win the black vote?

hillarys... not... black. I'm not sure I understand your point. and bernie a fantastic speaker? no. he's average at best. he is nowhere near obama's league. Hell, Bill Clinton in his prime doesn't compare. Hillary had tons of connections in the southern states, and had a connection to the obama legacy which was very powerful in the primary.

[Mr. Morden]

Black (Dem.) presidential candidates don't always win the black vote in the primaries, true.  But are there any examples where they got a higher %age among white voters than black voters?  I can't think of any examples.  E.g., Al Sharpton in 2004, when he was getting something like 1% of the vote in the primaries overall, he was still managing to hit double digits among black voters in some states where the black vote was statistically meaningful, according to the exit polls.

So while I don't think it's a given that Booker or Harris will *win* the black vote, if they did better with white Dem. primary voters than black Dem. primary voters, it would be unusual by modern historical standards.

[Mr. Morden]

Bloomberg says his decision timeline is “end of January, into February maybe”.  Also, “I would certainly run as a Democrat”:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/12/30/michael_bloomberg_on_2020_i_would_certainly_run_as_a_democrat.html

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Sherrod Brown’s been calling Dem. leaders in New Hampshire:

https://www.concordmonitor.com/On-the-Trail-by-Paul-Steinhauser-22392314

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[RogueBeaver]

NYT: Biden is still ambivalent about running and unclear whether Beto and Bernie will run.

[lfromnj]

NYT: Biden is still ambivalent about running and unclear whether Beto and Bernie will run.

yeah I don't see none of the big 3 B not running,

[Adam Griffin]

Black (Dem.) presidential candidates don't always win the black vote in the primaries, true.  But are there any examples where they got a higher %age among white voters than black voters?  I can't think of any examples.  E.g., Al Sharpton in 2004, when he was getting something like 1% of the vote in the primaries overall, he was still managing to hit double digits among black voters in some states where the black vote was statistically meaningful, according to the exit polls.

So while I don't think it's a given that Booker or Harris will *win* the black vote, if they did better with white Dem. primary voters than black Dem. primary voters, it would be unusual by modern historical standards.

It's worth noting that since 2004, the winner of the black vote (whether that be a plurality or majority) has went on to win the nomination. Even Kerry was doing very well in the early states with black voters (pulling around 40%, with Sharpton getting another 10-20%), and ultimately won closer to 60% of black voters toward the end of the primary contest.

You can actually go back even further and this truth will hold: in 2000, it was a lopsided result in general of course; in 1992 (and by default 1996), both black and Southern white voters were united behind Clinton from the get-go (albeit at a time when the black vote was less influential). Jesse Jackson was probably the last Democratic candidate who won the most black voters in the primary but who didn't clinch the nomination - and even he made an unexpectedly strong showing as a result of it.

[Mr. Smith]

Black (Dem.) presidential candidates don't always win the black vote in the primaries, true.  But are there any examples where they got a higher %age among white voters than black voters?  I can't think of any examples.  E.g., Al Sharpton in 2004, when he was getting something like 1% of the vote in the primaries overall, he was still managing to hit double digits among black voters in some states where the black vote was statistically meaningful, according to the exit polls.

So while I don't think it's a given that Booker or Harris will *win* the black vote, if they did better with white Dem. primary voters than black Dem. primary voters, it would be unusual by modern historical standards.

It's worth noting that since 2004, the winner of the black vote (whether that be a plurality or majority) has went on to win the nomination. Even Kerry was doing very well in the early states with black voters (pulling around 40%, with Sharpton getting another 10-20%), and ultimately won closer to 60% of black voters toward the end of the primary contest.

You can actually go back even further and this truth will hold: in 2000, it was a lopsided result in general of course; in 1992 (and by default 1996), both black and Southern white voters were united behind Clinton from the get-go (albeit at a time when the black vote was less influential). Jesse Jackson was probably the last Democratic candidate who won the most black voters in the primary but who didn't clinch the nomination - and even he made an unexpectedly strong showing as a result of it.

Yeah, and Tom Harkin's the lone candidate to win Iowa and not get nominated in that same space of time, and Iowa is mostly white. In fact literally only Harkin has won Iowa and not been nominee [since the reforms and Carter first demonstrating the importance of the state], and he had a home-state bounce!

Which one is gonna override here? Especially if the black vote gets split?

[Blair]

To reaffirm what others have said, its easy to fall into rather broad generalisations about the African-American vote, and how it changed. To pick up on a few things.

1.) IIRC Clinton was winning among AA's until late 2007- largely because as Adam mentions, her name ID was through the roof, and she had extremely strong ties among black lawmakers and community group. The AA vote didn't just bolt onto Obama when he announced.

2.) The African-American vote really needs to be split into Age, Region and Gender; there's such a vast political difference between say a 67 year black women from South Carolina, and a 19 black guy from Oakland.

3.) But finally, it should be remembered that the AA vote is disproportionately powerful in the deep southern states- where IIRC the AA electorate are older and much more female.

If I was advising Harris or Booker, I'd be chasing that vote for the whole campaign.   

[America Needs R'hllor]

Can everyone stop normative political discussion here and leave it to pure tea leaves and some discussion about them?

[Mr. Morden]

NYT: Biden is still ambivalent about running and unclear whether Beto and Bernie will run.

Here's the relevant excerpt:

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[Rookie Yinzer]

To reaffirm what others have said, its easy to fall into rather broad generalisations about the African-American vote, and how it changed. To pick up on a few things.

1.) IIRC Clinton was winning among AA's until late 2007- largely because as Adam mentions, her name ID was through the roof, and she had extremely strong ties among black lawmakers and community group. The AA vote didn't just bolt onto Obama when he announced.

2.) The African-American vote really needs to be split into Age, Region and Gender; there's such a vast political difference between say a 67 year black women from South Carolina, and a 19 black guy from Oakland.

3.) But finally, it should be remembered that the AA vote is disproportionately powerful in the deep southern states- where IIRC the AA electorate are older and much more female.

If I was advising Harris or Booker, I'd be chasing that vote for the whole campaign.   

Yeah, Bernie beat Hillary among black voters under 30 52-47 and I’m sure it was by double digits if you take out the South. Obama was a candidate who was able to inspire all factions of black voters. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker are not him. Add in misogyny, disillusion after electing the first black president really didn’t change anything. There is a plausible scenario that Bernie or Beto can overperform with black voters in the Midwest even while Kamala wins the black voters in the South. I personally think Cory is DOA. The overwhelmingly black and female primaries in the Deep South will default to the woman. Especially if she can snag an endorsement from black women like Maxine Waters, Stacey Abrams, Terri Sewell, etc

[RogueBeaver]

NYT on Bidenworld.