The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 3

[RogueBeaver]

Buttigieg, Merkley, Swalwell making a pre-Xmas pilgrimage to Iowa.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Literally a red wave baby

Whoever programmed you guys is very uncreative.

[RogueBeaver]

Buttigieg says he'll announce his plans by year's end.

[Mr. Morden]

Garcetti has been thinking more about 2020, and now gives a “first quarter of 2019” decision timeline:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/l-a-mayor-eric-garcetti-closer-to-2020-bid-race-will-be-about-getting-s-done/

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Holder headed to Iowa in February:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/11/30/iowa-caucus-eric-holder-iowa-2020-presidential-run-candidate-harkin-bloomberg-trump-president/2155185002/

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Steyer on his 2020 decision:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-one-else-going-going-billionaire-tom-steyer-possible-presidential-run-215055038.html

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[aaroncd107]

Someone has created a "Draft Beto 2020" PAC.

https://draftbeto2020.org/

we been knew that

[Joey1996]

Buttigieg says he'll announce his plans by year's end.

I hope he's only doing this to get more support for a 2020 Indiana governor's race.

[wbrocks67]

Steyer needs to say away. Same with Avenatti (think that's done now, thank god) and Bernie.

[Former Kentuckian]

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan when asked about running against Trump:

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Source: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/30/trump-midterms-republican-party-governors-rga-1034609

[Would-be-Rep.]

Sherrod Brown will be on CNN’s State of the Union this Sunday.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Steyer needs to say away. Same with Avenatti (think that's done now, thank god) and Bernie.

Avenatti was acquitted of any felony charges, and the Stormy allegations are completely baseless...

[Cold War Liberal]

Buttigieg says he'll announce his plans by year's end.

I hope he's only doing this to get more support for a 2020 Indiana governor's race.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo picks to lead the Democratic Governors Association over a 2020 campaign. She's out.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/419265-raimondo-to-lead-dem-governors-wont-run-for-president

[tosk]

Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo picks to lead the Democratic Governors Association over a 2020 campaign. She's out.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/419265-raimondo-to-lead-dem-governors-wont-run-for-president

forgot anyone had talked about her... probably a good idea on her part

[Mr. Morden]

Well, now it’s not just folks like Castro and Buttigieg, but Kamala Harris, a candidate widely considered to be in the “first tier”, saying that she intends to follow an “end of this year” decision timeline on 2020:

https://www.nbcnews.com/know-your-value/feature/sen-kamala-harris-near-decision-2020-presidential-bid-ncna942631

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Klobuchar was in Iowa today, and was asked about 2020 (sounds like she does *not* have any imminent decision timeline):

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/01/amy-klobuchar-minnesota-heartland-economics-iowa-caucus-democrats-farm-bill-farmers-union-convention/2174588002/

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Weigel recaps Sanders-fest in Burlington (Gabbard also spoke there):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/bernie-sanders-turns-focus-to-the-white-house-and-the-world/2018/12/01/dc01f7ae-f4f1-11e8-80d0-f7e1948d55f4_story.html

[NevadanAtHeart]

Well, now it’s not just folks like Castro and Buttigieg, but Kamala Harris, a candidate widely considered to be in the “first tier”, saying that she intends to follow an “end of this year” decision timeline on 2020:

https://www.nbcnews.com/know-your-value/feature/sen-kamala-harris-near-decision-2020-presidential-bid-ncna942631

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Klobuchar was in Iowa today, and was asked about 2020 (sounds like she does *not* have any imminent decision timeline):

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/01/amy-klobuchar-minnesota-heartland-economics-iowa-caucus-democrats-farm-bill-farmers-union-convention/2174588002/

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Weigel recaps Sanders-fest in Burlington (Gabbard also spoke there):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/bernie-sanders-turns-focus-to-the-white-house-and-the-world/2018/12/01/dc01f7ae-f4f1-11e8-80d0-f7e1948d55f4_story.html

Sen. Sherrod Brown, who's probably realistically somewhere between the low first and high second tiers of candidates, also has an end of the year timeline, right? And important to note from this example is that having a decision deadline at the end of the year is not the same as having an announcement planned for the end of the year. I wouldn't expect Sen. Harris to announce this early.

[Mr. Morden]

Sen. Sherrod Brown, who's probably realistically somewhere between the low first and high second tiers of candidates, also has an end of the year timeline, right?

No.  He said about two weeks ago that he has no timetable for a decision:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303677.msg6542857#msg6542857

As far as I know, he hasn't revised those comments, but if you've seen something different, let me know.

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Well, I would make a distinction between 1) a candidate's *actual* time of decision, and 2) a candidate's publicly stated time of decision.  My assumption is that Harris, and many of the others, have already decided that they're going to run.  They just haven't made the announcement yet, because they don't judge this as the best time to announce.  They might announce in January, or they might announce in March or April, but their actual decision to run could have been months or even years earlier than that.

But in terms of Harris's *publicly stated* time of decision....she's now said that she'll decide over the holidays.  So what is she going to say when a reporter asks her about this on January 2nd?  "I've decided whether I'm going to run for president, but I won't tell you what my decision is until April?"  No, that would be silly.  You can say "I've decided, and I'll announce the decision next week", but much more than that isn't realistic.  You can't admit that you're hiding your decision for more than a week or so.

So either she will announce in January, or else she'll have to backtrack on these comments, saying that she's still thinking about it.  (And I'm not saying it would be a big deal if she does backtrack.  I was just making a note of the timeline she's nominally floating right now.)

[Mr. Morden]

Avenatti says his chances in the primary are actually going up(!), though he’s already suffered staff attrition:

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/02/michael-avenatti-crash-burn-1037151

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In other news, the NYT had a story a few days ago on the art of the (2020) dodge:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/29/us/politics/democrats-2020-president.html

[Mr. Morden]

Inslee apparently created a new PAC in October, but managed to keep it a secret until now:

https://www.opb.org/news/article/jay-inslee-washington-2020-presidential-race-pac-candidate/

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[NYSforKennedy2024]

Obama and Clinton administration aides are throwing Beto O'Rourke into the mix.

I'm willing to bet that Deval Patrick and Eric Holder have taken quite a hit on the Obamaworld list.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/obama-aides-say-beto-o-rourke-reminds-them-ex-president-n942576

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama and Clinton administration aides are throwing Beto O'Rourke into the mix.

I'm willing to bet that Deval Patrick and Eric Holder have taken quite a hit on the Obamaworld list.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/obama-aides-say-beto-o-rourke-reminds-them-ex-president-n942576

Yeah, I don't need someone who reminds me of Obama.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo picks to lead the Democratic Governors Association over a 2020 campaign. She's out.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/419265-raimondo-to-lead-dem-governors-wont-run-for-president

forgot anyone had talked about her... probably a good idea on her part

Agreed. She may have done better in getting re-elected than anyone would have expected, but she would be a very poor choice for a nominee. I never thought she was in contention either.

[Joey1996]

Obama and Clinton administration aides are throwing Beto O'Rourke into the mix.

I'm willing to bet that Deval Patrick and Eric Holder have taken quite a hit on the Obamaworld list.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/obama-aides-say-beto-o-rourke-reminds-them-ex-president-n942576

Yeah, I don't need someone who reminds me of Obama.

[beaver2.0]

What appeal does Deval Patrick have?  Does he have any distinguishing features that I just don't know of?

[henster]

What appeal does Deval Patrick have?  Does he have any distinguishing features that I just don't know of?

He's one of only two elected black Governors ever elected and a decent orator, Obama was even accused of plagiarizing from Patrick back in 2008.

[Mr. Morden]

Gabbard was  in New Hampshire today, and was asked about 2020.  She said that she’s “seriously considering” a presidential run, but has no specific decision timeline in mind right now:

https://www.civilbeat.org/2018/12/tulsi-gabbard-for-president-i-am-seriously-considering-it/

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