It's a toss up, let's just agree it's a toss up.
If this race is actually a toss up, then 2018 is going to be an ugly (or at least severely disappointing) year for the Dems. But it's not. Rosen is still ahead in the polling average, and well...Democrats don't do worse than the polling average in Nevada, unless you're a wax figure with a droopy face and no campaign named Bob Goodman.
^This. If heller is winning on election night, then it is a terrible night for democrats, and the top is probably gaining at least 4 or 5 seats in the senate, if not more.