NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2
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  NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2
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Author Topic: NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2  (Read 7370 times)
Ebsy
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« on: October 09, 2018, 04:04:28 PM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-races-nevada-are-dead-heat-n918251

Likely Voters
Heller (GOP): 46
Rosen (DEM): 44
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Florida Man for Crime
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2018, 04:05:14 PM »

UNBEATABLE TITAN BEATS WEAK CANDIDATE
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2018, 04:05:24 PM »

Is that panic I sense??
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2018, 04:05:44 PM »

Rosen sucks. But before we jump off a bridge it seems that undecideds are dem leaning
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Matty
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2018, 04:06:27 PM »

Trump approval 45-47 seems way too high

Poll seems dubious on that fact alone
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2018, 04:06:48 PM »

Not to concern troll, but these are not numbers that signify a wave.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2018, 04:07:02 PM »

The crosstabs are pretty funky, including this bit:

But Heller leads by 26 points in Washoe County (Reno), 60 percent to 34 percent.

Small n I know, but still, hard to credit.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2018, 04:07:05 PM »

Rosen sucks. But before we jump off a bridge it seems that undecideds are dem leaning

One thing we should all remember about Nevada is that they have the option to vote "None of the above." So unecideds may make less of a difference than in other races, and there is a higher chance than in other states that the winner will be <50%.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2018, 04:07:29 PM »

Ok, just like with Nelson and Scott, I have had dems edging this one out the whole time and still do, but it would not surprise me if Heller won.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2018, 04:08:16 PM »

I really don't see it, especially with pollsters bad history in Nevada.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: October 09, 2018, 04:08:47 PM »

Essentially, if you believe that Nevada will have an R+2 electorate in 2018, you should believe this poll.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #11 on: October 09, 2018, 04:09:35 PM »

Not to concern troll, but these are not numbers that signify a wave.

This is good, because it ensures that in NV, once again for the 500th time now, Dems will out-perform the polls.

It is also good that the Siena poll is not changing the times of day that they call at all to catch unionized Casino workers that work night shift, and that will similarly help them under-poll Dems in NV.
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Doimper
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« Reply #12 on: October 09, 2018, 04:09:41 PM »

THE TITAN CAN'T STOP WINNING
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Sestak
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« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2018, 04:09:56 PM »

No way Heller is winning Washoe by 26.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2018, 04:10:30 PM »

The crosstabs are pretty funky, including this bit:

But Heller leads by 26 points in Washoe County (Reno), 60 percent to 34 percent.

Small n I know, but still, hard to credit.

How though? Hillary won Washoe county.
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Skye
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2018, 04:11:59 PM »

Eh. Finally Heller has a good poll.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #16 on: October 09, 2018, 04:13:30 PM »

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Well, that is encouraging.

What Harry Reid doing this days? Got to get that machine rolling again.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #17 on: October 09, 2018, 04:15:23 PM »

I'm calling it now, we have yet another Nevada election that pollsters will bomb. You'd think they'd learn by now.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #18 on: October 09, 2018, 04:19:54 PM »

Heller is finished

In Nevada, Republican Joe Heck holds a seven-point advantage over Democratic opponent Catherine Cortez Masto among likely voters, 49 percent to 42 percent – up from Heck’s two-point lead last month. OCT 26 2016

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Devils30
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« Reply #19 on: October 09, 2018, 04:21:35 PM »

Republicans hold a 2-point lead in congressional preference in Nevada, with 47 percent of likely voters preferring a GOP-controlled Congress, versus 45 percent who want the Democrats in charge 

Seems like another systemic error in Nevada polling. Not a chance Rs win the vote here and lose North Carolina by 5%
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #20 on: October 09, 2018, 04:22:26 PM »


That's a pretty huge miss on the Senate race. More surprising for a A pollster like Marist.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: October 09, 2018, 04:22:48 PM »

Yeah, Marist (among others) does not have a good track record polling Nevada. I imagine the Upshot is suffering similar problems.
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Politician
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« Reply #22 on: October 09, 2018, 04:23:23 PM »

IceSpear told me Dean Heller was DOA and candidate quality doesn't matter, though.

I do still expect Rosen to win though, but it will be close.
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2016
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« Reply #23 on: October 09, 2018, 04:24:59 PM »

NBC/MARIST POLLS are a big crap no matter if they have Dems or GOP ahead.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: October 09, 2018, 04:25:53 PM »

Tilt R
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