NV-SEN(NBC/Marist): Heller+2

[IceSpear]

IceSpear told me Dean Heller was DOA and candidate quality doesn't matter, though.

I do still expect Rosen to win though, but it will be close.

So Dunleavy being up 20 points doesn't matter because muh 2016, yet Nevada polls underestimating Democrats in nearly every race for the past decade is irrelevant. #analysis

Hey though, maybe this will finally be the year that Nevada polls are accurate. Just like the Republicans insisted 2010, 2012, and 2016 would be. I guess we'll see!

[IceSpear]

hmm….

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_berkley-1894.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heck_vs_cortez_masto-5982.html

…Noticing a pattern?

I noticed.

[IceSpear]

It's a toss up, let's just agree it's a toss up.

If this race is actually a toss up, then 2018 is going to be an ugly (or at least severely disappointing) year for the Dems. But it's not. Rosen is still ahead in the polling average, and well...Democrats don't do worse than the polling average in Nevada, unless you're a wax figure with a droopy face and no campaign named Bob Goodman.

[IceSpear]

Trump approval 45-47 seems way too high

Poll seems dubious on that fact alone

Trump approval in NV has been unusually high in other polls, too.

Probably because Nevada is hard to poll.

Anyway, IceSpear is right (I know many on Atlas hate hearing this, but it's true), if Heller does actually win, it not only means that the blue wave is dead, it means Democrats are having a very bad night, and we're probably looking at R+5-6 in the Senate.

No! Democrats can make up for a loss in NV by winning TN!

[IceSpear]

Junk poll of the year? Definitely close, at least.

That Tester +24 poll is junk poll of the year and absolutely nothing will top it.

If we're going by ultimate difference from result, the Newsom +4 poll might be worse.

Actually, this one is definitely the worst:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303053.0

[IceSpear]

Who was the one who added this to the database? Can we please keep the titles to the normal format, none of the trolling is needed thx.

It was me. And there is no "normal format", so I assume you're referring to the <candidate> + <number> format that I use of my own accord 99.9% of the time.

[IceSpear]

Heller +2
Evers +10

Makes sense, Marist.

Why am I not surprised that the only state they give rosy numbers for the Republicans is Nevada? lol

[IceSpear]

Heller beat popular Rep. Shelley Berkley in 2012 despite Obama carrying the State. Unlike Joe Heck Heller knows how to do well in a tough Environment.

Yes, the corrupt lady under ethics investigation was clearly a popular strong candidate. Heller got less votes than Mitt Romney did.

[IceSpear]

Even if Heller loses by 5-6 points, this race is and never will be considered "Safe" for either party.  If it were "safe," no money would be flooding into the state for campaign commercials.

Right now, it's a tossup and the most likely pickup for the Democrats in this cycle in the Senate as far as picking off a seat goes in a "blue wave" environment. That's pretty much it. You're drinking too much Kool Aid if you think otherwise.

Nevada is Safe D. There I said it. The polls in Nevada always overestimate republicans as IceSpear showed. Heller is a terrible candidate running in a state that voted for Hillary Clinton and he will not win the election. It will only be 5-6 point loss for Heller but he WILL lose. Why don't we poll competitive races like IN?

Whoa, you're back!