What about Trump/The GOP is pushing suburbs away the most?

[All Along The Watchtower]

All of these would play a role, but you (predictably) missed a rather underrated reason: the stereotype many people have of "suburbs" isn't an accurate description of a lot of suburbs anymore, as many suburban areas are becoming more diverse and taking on a more urban feel, and their politics have changed accordingly.

This too, yes. There is more racial, ethnic, and economic diversity within suburban America than ever now. And note that the majority of Americans live in suburbs, and it's been that way for some years now.

[NOVA Green]

Key question is how do we quantify these shifts, at what time frames, among which social-demographic variables to create independent and controlled variables.

What caused certain Suburban areas to start to shift heavily DEM in '88 > '92 > '96 >'00 > '04 > '08 > '12 > '16?

Obviously there are tons of things going on here, but there is obviously a much longer historical context that needs to be considered, especially if one were to view dramatic population growth in many of these communities, and rapid social-demographic changes to try to explain why suburban areas of the West Coast (Other than SoCAL) moved heavily DEM in '88, shifts in voting habits in various MidWest 'Burbs etc....

My original post was an attempt to open the topic to what I consider a broader and thematic discussion of long term shifts in the "'Burbs" and not simply regarding the results of the 2008 > 2016 Presidential Election Results in such communities (Although there are tons of interesting data points there).

[darklordoftech]

1988 is when the "red state"/"blue state" divide began to form. HW lacking Reagan's charisma, Robert Bork's nomination, the S&L crash, the decline of tensions with the USSR, rising crime rates, the Boomers growing up, and Lee Atwater's decision to emphasize social issues were likely all factors.

[CookieDamage]

I would say trade and immigration the most. These are two areas where the Republican party has shifted pretty dramatically in a nationalist direction over the past 20 years but especially under Trump. Highly educated people usually have positive views on free trade and legal immigration. I don't think most people (who aren't Democrats) think there are anti-LGBT and anti-women policies coming out of the Trump administration, that's a bunch of nonsense.

Is this a joke? Yeah trying to legislate against trans people and trying to ban trans people from the military is nonsense.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

1988 is when the "red state"/"blue state" divide began to form. HW lacking Reagan's charisma, Robert Bork's nomination, the S&L crash, the decline of tensions with the USSR, rising crime rates, the Boomers growing up, and Lee Atwater's decision to emphasize social issues were likely all factors.

I'd agree but attribute it to 1992

[DC Al Fine]

Semi hot take: the suburbs have drifted left because

a) They aren't as white as they used to be
b) The white people in them dont feel as economically secure as they did a generation ago

All the other reasons (except healthcare which relates to b) are overrated.

[Torie]

Their demonstrated inability to govern in a reasonable and rational way might have something to do with it. Boehner's comment after he retired that tea party House leader Jordon of Ohio was a "legislative terrorist" kind of sums up the problem. How long has it been since the Pubs have offered up some reasonable and practical approach to addressing any major issue?  Yes, I know, the Dems have their own issues here, but it is time to give them a chance at bat.

[Badger]

All of the above. Trump is a dumb man catering to dumb people.

You are a dumb person...

Says the man brandishing a Johnson weld logo....

[Badger]

Deficit spending could also be alienating suburbs.

Suburbs hate inflation traditionally, so if the deficit spending ever led to such, then definitely yes.

What I had in mind is that home1onwers and business-owners have to balance their budgets and hence would fear fiscal irresponsibility.

People only tend to act based on direct impacts to them. So hatred of taxes far outweighs deficit concerns.

This * 100. Which is of course why Reagan did quite well in the suburbs.