What about Trump/The GOP is pushing suburbs away the most?

[Tekken_Guy]

What exactly about the Republican Party and Donald Trump is pushing well-educated suburbs away from them the most?

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

All of the above. Trump is a dumb man catering to dumb people.

[ElectionsGuy]

I would say trade and immigration the most. These are two areas where the Republican party has shifted pretty dramatically in a nationalist direction over the past 20 years but especially under Trump. Highly educated people usually have positive views on free trade and legal immigration. I don't think most people (who aren't Democrats) think there are anti-LGBT and anti-women policies coming out of the Trump administration, that's a bunch of nonsense.

[RINO Tom]

All of these would play a role, but you (predictably) missed a rather underrated reason: the stereotype many people have of "suburbs" isn't an accurate description of a lot of suburbs anymore, as many suburban areas are becoming more diverse and taking on a more urban feel, and their politics have changed accordingly.  I have found that people often picture somewhere like Naperville, IL when they say "suburban," but it is really an outer suburb of Chicago, and its politics (largely Republican) are very, very different from the Cook County suburbs, which really do have more of a feel of an "outer city."

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Mostly rhetoric, especially on immigration and similar issues

[Adam Griffin]

https://youtu.be/pZDuvZc5jbg?t=148

[NOVA Green]

The shift in suburban, relatively Middle / Upper- Middle Class, Educated areas away from the Republican Party at a Federal Level has actually been a phenomenon that has been developing over the past 2-3 decades, although this has played out at different stages and levels in various parts of the United States....

It was masked in many ways by a simultaneous drop in Democratic support in other communities in various States, as well as a continued receptivity in many places to continue to vote Republican for US-SEN and US-House races....

We first started to observe this phenomenon in the US-PRES election of '88 in a few larger Metro Areas of the West Coast / Mountain West (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area, & Denver), and possibly a few parts of the Central Atlantic / Northeast / New England (Although I haven't really looked into that too much).

By the time the 1990s started to hit full force, this becomes a bit more evident in the Presidential Election of 1996, where we start to observe the larger Metro areas of SoCal join in the Party to a significant degree (Just to use one example).

The Presidential Election of 2000 is where we really started to see "Knowledge Sector Workers" emerge as a key element of the "New American Economy"....

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2016/10/06/1-changes-in-the-american-workplace/

Suddenly places like NoVA , "Collar Counties" of Chicago, Charlotte NC, "Research Triangle" NC, start to look a bit more competitive than used to be the case....

Fast forward to '08 and Obama suddenly landslides in San Diego County, NoVA becomes dark red, Mecklenburg Co NC (Metro Charlotte), Research Triangle NC, Franklin County, OH becomes a Democratic stronghold, "Collar Counties" of IL fairly Dem, Oakland County MI +17% D (!!!), etc....

Hit 2016 and suddenly the snowball is rolling down the icy mountain passes....

OC flips, SE PA moves hard Dem, +20% swings in upper-middle-class educated 'Burbs from Tennessee to Texas to Kansas....

Ok--- most us on Atlas that follow regularly and post on these topics already get the broader trajectory at a Presidential Level.

What about other Federal Races?

1.) The shifts we saw in "Wave 1" of the suburban rejection of 'Pub PRES candidates actually took at Decade or so to manifest for US-House and US-SEN races....

2.) "Wave 2" was slightly more compressed in time and space, but even in the Obama '08 campaign, we didn't really see these gains in suburban voters directly translate into dramatic "down ballot" gains among this population.

3.) "Wave 3", even in these types of areas that did not dramatically swing towards HRC in '16 we suddenly started to observe massive swings in Special Elections from AZ CD-08, PA CD-17, OH CD-12.

These are many of the same areas where we are now seeing Republicans facing their biggest threat for US-House Races.

4.) Where I am going with this, is that it used to take awhile (A decade +) to see realignment in these suburban communities, now appears that it is happening overnight.

This is most unusual by any standard, and although ultimately the areas where we are seeing the biggest swings against the Republican Party, might well be the areas that swing back the hardest (Much like some of the Labor Movement Democratic Strongholds of the MidWest), but still want and are willing to pay for government services (Education, Roads, Health Care), go to work with folks from a wide variety of backgrounds, have a neighborhood BBQ without "haters" preaching their religion, talking about mass deportations based upon country of origin, or overall violating any standard Business Code of Conduct type "Red Lines" that we are all expected to understand and comply with in terms of how we treat our fellow workers, customers, and basically just common sense human decency.

If it's good enough for the Business Leaders of Corporate America, why are these same codes of conduct different for the President of the United States of America???

[Mr. Illini]

All of these would play a role, but you (predictably) missed a rather underrated reason: the stereotype many people have of "suburbs" isn't an accurate description of a lot of suburbs anymore, as many suburban areas are becoming more diverse and taking on a more urban feel, and their politics have changed accordingly.  I have found that people often picture somewhere like Naperville, IL when they say "suburban," but it is really an outer suburb of Chicago, and its politics (largely Republican) are very, very different from the Cook County suburbs, which really do have more of a feel of an "outer city."

You always give this spin, but it is unquestionable that whites with college degrees have moved toward the Democratic Party and are especially averse to Donald Trump.

[Horus]

Inaction on gun violence. These are the same people who want cops armed and citizens sitting ducks.

[Tintrlvr]

Other: It's the combativeness and general perception that the Republicans are hostile to everything modern. This takes into account a few different options on the poll (like anti-LGBT attitudes, views on women, white identity politics and Trump's tweeting) but it is a broader sense that the Republican Party has become simply angry reactionaries (the "angry" part is especially important and is why Trump was a much bigger turnoff to the suburbs than Bush or Romney, e.g.), and the suburbs don't like that.

Some aspects on the list also show that the modern Republican Party is also no longer in line with the suburbs on economic issues, including on trade and immigration, even if Republican tax policy does still generally favor suburbs over cities and rural areas (but, even there, only if your suburb is in Texas or Georgia rather than New Jersey or California), which I am sure makes the suburbs feel less reason to "vote their interests" and stick with the Republicans even when they're uncomfortable with the attitudes being displayed. This is another reason why Bush or Romney was less of a turnoff (in addition to the "angry" aspect).

I don't think healthcare or Russia matter all that much especially in the suburbs. Healthcare is more of a rural issue in particular (at least as far as it hurts Republicans), and Russia hurts them across the board to the extent it has any impact. Gun violence probably helps the Republicans on net in suburbs, as even if the suburbs favor more gun control, the suburbs also don't trust the Democrats on crime/law and order issues overall (though that distrust is significantly less than it was a few decades ago).

[Vern]

All of the above. Trump is a dumb man catering to dumb people.

You are a dumb person...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's the crazy what done it.

[tallguy23]

I think it's more style than substance. The suburbs tend to be much more diverse and cosmopolitan than they used to be. I grew up in a suburb of Los Angeles that was staunchly GOP up until about 2000.

Once the GOP started running candidates that were anti-immigrant, anti-science-and critical of higher education, my town started trending away. Residents may have been more economically conservative but they don't like anyone who blasts modern life in America.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Style, Equality, Education/Science/climate, and foreign policy.   Also the two big problems for the GOP isn't what is pushing them away, but what is attracting them to the Democrats. Millennials in the suburbs are laden with college debt and cannot afford health care, so the Democrats proposals are thus far more appealing than the current Republican platform of take two tax cuts and call me in the morning. 


I don't think trade is a big turnoff in suburbs, at least until some kind of inflation were to hit, until then they may not like the position but it is not the decisive factor. Trade is a big turn on in the post industrial and industrial sections and it is major turnoff in export dominated industries like agriculture (which is historically the case).

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I think it's more style than substance. The suburbs tend to be much more diverse and cosmopolitan than they used to be. I grew up in a suburb of Los Angeles that was staunchly GOP up until about 2000.

Once the GOP started running candidates that were anti-immigrant, anti-science-and critical of higher education, my town started trending away. Residents may have been more economically conservative but they don't like anyone who blasts modern life in America.

Barbara Comstock this year is basically Jim Rogan vs Adam Schiff in 2000. Once it's gone, it's never coming back. Virginia=Safe D

[RINO Tom]

All of these would play a role, but you (predictably) missed a rather underrated reason: the stereotype many people have of "suburbs" isn't an accurate description of a lot of suburbs anymore, as many suburban areas are becoming more diverse and taking on a more urban feel, and their politics have changed accordingly.  I have found that people often picture somewhere like Naperville, IL when they say "suburban," but it is really an outer suburb of Chicago, and its politics (largely Republican) are very, very different from the Cook County suburbs, which really do have more of a feel of an "outer city."

You always give this spin, but it is unquestionable that whites with college degrees have moved toward the Democratic Party and are especially averse to Donald Trump.

Apparently you missed my first sentence (now bolded for ya).  I didn't dispute literally a single word you just typed, just added a non-insignificant reason that the OP forgot.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Racism and sexism mainly, I think. Some of the Religious Right stuff too.

[darklordoftech]

Deficit spending could also be alienating suburbs.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Deficit spending could also be alienating suburbs.

Suburbs hate inflation traditionally, so if the deficit spending ever led to such, then definitely yes.

[darklordoftech]

Deficit spending could also be alienating suburbs.

Suburbs hate inflation traditionally, so if the deficit spending ever led to such, then definitely yes.

What I had in mind is that home-onwers and business-owners have to balance their budgets and hence would fear fiscal irresponsibility.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Deficit spending could also be alienating suburbs.

Suburbs hate inflation traditionally, so if the deficit spending ever led to such, then definitely yes.

What I had in mind is that home1onwers and business-owners have to balance their budgets and hence would fear fiscal irresponsibility.

People only tend to act based on direct impacts to them. So hatred of taxes far outweighs deficit concerns.

[Sir Mohamed]

Views on women and his high level of dishonesty.

[RI]

Deficit spending could also be alienating suburbs.

Suburbs hate inflation traditionally, so if the deficit spending ever led to such, then definitely yes.

Suburbs love inflation when it comes to house values.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Racism and sexism mainly, I think. Some of the Religious Right stuff too.

Why would the suburbs have a problem with racism?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Racism and sexism mainly, I think. Some of the Religious Right stuff too.

Why would the suburbs have a problem with racism?

Not racism in the broadest sense, but the uncouth demonstrations of it by this President. Combined with the Steve Bannon (his influence lives on!) and Stephen Miller types in the White House formulating policy on immigration, along with the open and highly publicized embrace of Trump by Richard Spencer, David Duke, and such, it does leave a sour taste in the mouths of college-educated (white) suburbanites who genuinely see themselves as enlightened and "liberal" on race, regardless of any evidence to the contrary.