TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6

[Arkansas Yankee]

But true to form, it looks like FiveThirtyEight has actually increased Beto's chance of winning from 27.9% to 28.6%. They turned Cruz's 6-point lead into a 3.9-point lead and decreased his margin in the polling average. I understand how they did it, but I've been a little skeptical of their methodology.

Sometimes, I think algorithmic complexity can just get in the way of the obvious.

I think you're seeing a malicious intent where there isn't one. The reason that it was shifted down to a 3.9% lead is because of YouGov's previously established "House Effects". Essentially, 538 is looking at polls Yougov has done in previous elections and has found that they are, on average, 2.1% too favorable to the Republican candidates. Also, if they were really trying to make it look like O'Rourke was doing better then he actually was, why adjust Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac University, Reform Austin, etc. away from O'Rourke?

Finally, doesn't it seem naturally counterproductive for a odds website to epurposely obfuscate what's going on? From a business perspective, wouldn't that just make them lose traffic? If anything, they should be adjusting toward O'Rourke to make it look like more of a horse race then it actually is.

But I believe that that they have You Gov posted as  D+.3 pollster.  So why deduct for GOP house effect?

[Arkansas Yankee]

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

Don’t count on that. 

Also Lindsey Graham has becom quite a Star in the GOP.  He says he going to barnstorm the purple and red states for Republican candidates. Trump will also stump for the need of more GOPers.

Democrats talking of impeachment of Kavanaugh will help keep GOP energy up..

Let the me ask whether Dr. Ford’s declaration that she does not want Kavanaugh impeached will have any effect on Democratic turnout?