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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6
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Author Topic: TX CBS/YouGov Tracker: Cruz +6  (Read 1699 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 07, 2018, 09:45:42 am »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-races-gop-up-in-texas-tennessee-dems-up-in-arizona-new-jersey-cbs-news-poll/

Cruz 50
O'Rourke 44
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2018, 09:46:39 am »

Looks right
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Dr. RI
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2018, 09:58:13 am »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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Lean Branson
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2018, 10:06:25 am »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2018, 10:08:07 am »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

Me too.

Interesting as well that there was a net benefit to R interest if he was rejected, as we all suspected.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2018, 10:18:36 am »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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This is an actual “reason Democrats lose.” How this spectacle doesn’t get hordes of Democrats off their asses to head to the ballot box with a vengeance is beyond me.
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2018, 10:21:05 am »

Looks about right.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2018, 10:37:12 am »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

Me too.

Interesting as well that there was a net benefit to R interest if he was rejected, as we all suspected.

If Kavanaugh had been rejected and Trump had a new nominee up when Election Day came around, it would have been armageddon for Dem chances in the Senate.
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Mondale
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2018, 10:43:42 am »

The margin is the same as its been for months but now its due to "Kavanaugh energy"

Next week...it'll be due to Cruz's debate preformance and then a week before election, it'll probably be attributed due to some gaffe Beto makes
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2018, 10:44:25 am »

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

This was actually Mitch's original intended play, but Trump being a short-sighted paranoid nut wanted a confirmation ASAP and before midterms.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2018, 10:52:55 am »

But true to form, it looks like FiveThirtyEight has actually increased Beto's chance of winning from 27.9% to 28.6%. They turned Cruz's 6-point lead into a 3.9-point lead and decreased his margin in the polling average. I understand how they did it, but I've been a little skeptical of their methodology.

Sometimes, I think algorithmic complexity can just get in the way of the obvious.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2018, 10:56:17 am »

But true to form, it looks like FiveThirtyEight has actually increased Beto's chance of winning from 27.9% to 28.6%. They turned Cruz's 6-point lead into a 3.9-point lead and decreased his margin in the polling average. I understand how they did it, but I've been a little skeptical of their methodology.

Sometimes, I think algorithmic complexity can just get in the way of the obvious.

Well, it's not like 27.9% or 28.6% are at all good for Beto.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2018, 11:07:52 am »

True, but I've always found it a little strange that 538 can take a poll that's better than usual for a candidate and turn it into a slight bump for their opponent.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2018, 11:13:16 am »

But true to form, it looks like FiveThirtyEight has actually increased Beto's chance of winning from 27.9% to 28.6%. They turned Cruz's 6-point lead into a 3.9-point lead and decreased his margin in the polling average. I understand how they did it, but I've been a little skeptical of their methodology.

Sometimes, I think algorithmic complexity can just get in the way of the obvious.

I think you're seeing a malicious intent where there isn't one. The reason that it was shifted down to a 3.9% lead is because of YouGov's previously established "House Effects". Essentially, 538 is looking at polls Yougov has done in previous elections and has found that they are, on average, 2.1% too favorable to the Republican candidates. Also, if they were really trying to make it look like O'Rourke was doing better then he actually was, why adjust Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac University, Reform Austin, etc. away from O'Rourke?

Finally, doesn't it seem naturally counterproductive for a odds website to purposely obfuscate what's going on? From a business perspective, wouldn't that just make them lose traffic? If anything, they should be adjusting toward O'Rourke to make it look like more of a horse race then it actually is.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2018, 11:45:11 am »

Believable. Lean R, closer to Likely than Toss-up. It’s going to take a tsunami to flip this.
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Cashew
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2018, 11:51:17 am »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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I'm pretty surprised that McConnell didn't try stretching the confirmation until November. Republicans will have long forgotten about Kavanaugh by election day.

That's because McConnell is not looking for a partisan advantage, he is simply trying to fulfill his constitutional duty but unfortunately the obstructionist Democrats managed to delay the process, albeit to their own detriment.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2018, 11:57:25 am »

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This is an actual “reason Democrats lose.” How this spectacle doesn’t get hordes of Democrats off their asses to head to the ballot box with a vengeance is beyond me.

Its Texas
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2018, 11:59:27 am »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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This is an actual “reason Democrats lose.” How this spectacle doesn’t get hordes of Democrats off their asses to head to the ballot box with a vengeance is beyond me.

Its Texas

And? It's still saying that it made 60% of Democrats more motivated, compared to 73% of Republicans. It would be one thing if this poll said that Kavanaugh had net positive favorability ratings overall, but this is referring to enthusiasm within each party.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2018, 12:01:28 pm »

Concerning Kavanaugh:

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This is an actual “reason Democrats lose.” How this spectacle doesn’t get hordes of Democrats off their asses to head to the ballot box with a vengeance is beyond me.

Its Texas

And? It's still saying that it made 60% of Democrats more motivated, compared to 73% of Republicans. It would be one thing if this poll said that Kavanaugh had net positive favorability ratings overall, but this is referring to enthusiasm within each party.


Texas Democrats may be more pro Kavanugh comparatively to Democrats Nationally. It wouldnt be surprising, and it would basically be like many North Eastern Republicans being less pro-Kavanugh than Republicans are nationally.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2018, 12:10:11 pm »

CBS/Yougov is trailer trash even more than Louie Gohmert is, but this is about right. A broken clock is right twice a day and all that.
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DataGuy
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2018, 12:41:32 pm »

But true to form, it looks like FiveThirtyEight has actually increased Beto's chance of winning from 27.9% to 28.6%. They turned Cruz's 6-point lead into a 3.9-point lead and decreased his margin in the polling average. I understand how they did it, but I've been a little skeptical of their methodology.

Sometimes, I think algorithmic complexity can just get in the way of the obvious.

I think you're seeing a malicious intent where there isn't one. The reason that it was shifted down to a 3.9% lead is because of YouGov's previously established "House Effects". Essentially, 538 is looking at polls Yougov has done in previous elections and has found that they are, on average, 2.1% too favorable to the Republican candidates. Also, if they were really trying to make it look like O'Rourke was doing better then he actually was, why adjust Public Policy Polling, Quinnipiac University, Reform Austin, etc. away from O'Rourke?

Finally, doesn't it seem naturally counterproductive for a odds website to purposely obfuscate what's going on? From a business perspective, wouldn't that just make them lose traffic? If anything, they should be adjusting toward O'Rourke to make it look like more of a horse race then it actually is.

I don't see any malicious intent, it's just that I've found their model to be odd at times. And I've always questioned their use of house effects to adjust polls. House effects evaluate an individual poll against the aggregate of all other polls. For example, a poll that shows R+4 versus a polling average of R+1 has a house effect of R+3. An alternative is to use mean-reverted bias, which evaluates polls against actual election results.

It's actually possible for a pollster to have a house effect in favor of one party while having a mean-reverted bias in favor of the other party. FiveThirtyEight's article on pollster ratings explains it like this:

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FiveThirtyEight chooses to use house effects for their model, but I've done my own experimentation and have found that using mean-reverted bias comes up with more accurate results.
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Neither Holy Nor Roman 👁️
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2018, 12:43:33 pm »

According to this poll, Lyin' Ted Cruz is more honest and trustworthy than Beto O'Rourke

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and...

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History505
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2018, 05:14:06 pm »

I think it will be Cruz with the edge, but closer than this.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2018, 05:50:37 pm »

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2018, 05:51:17 pm »

If these polls are right, the Senate can go into a tie without ND or MO and then a MS runoff.
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