This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.
AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.
I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.
That is a fair assessment. By time of the Comey letter, the deadline to mail ballots had been surpassed and most ballots had already been received or were in the mail on their way to the county recorders office.
Then again undecideds probably wait to go to vote on that day and they broke like 3:2 R.