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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  AZ CBS/YouGov Tracker: Sinema +3
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Author Topic: AZ CBS/YouGov Tracker: Sinema +3  (Read 1058 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 07, 2018, 09:44:21 am »

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-races-gop-up-in-texas-tennessee-dems-up-in-arizona-new-jersey-cbs-news-poll/

Sinema 47
McSally 44
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2018, 09:48:11 am »

looks right
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Grillpill Ethusiasts
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2018, 10:22:17 am »

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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2018, 10:23:47 am »

Yeah, looks like 50 seats is still doable for the Democrats.
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2016
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2018, 10:56:32 am »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2018, 10:59:45 am »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

And what makes you think this race breaks towards McSally?
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Mondale
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« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2018, 11:02:56 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2018, 11:04:34 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.
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2016
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« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2018, 11:07:15 am »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

And what makes you think this race breaks towards McSally?

I'm not saying it will but it could particularly because of Ducey who might drag her over the Finish Line.
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Mondale
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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2018, 11:09:04 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

That must of been after the teacher raise bump and McCain death bump. I guess when you combine all those bumps at once...you get one giant kamehameha bump. No wonder he's up double digits.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2018, 11:09:57 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

Nah he got a “facing a crappy underfunded opponent” bump
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#FreeStuart'sMom
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« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2018, 11:15:20 am »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

Nah he got a “facing a crappy underfunded opponent” bump

He actually did get a Kyl bump. Garcia was closely trailing before Kyl appointment and now he is losing by 10+ in every poll.

Don't ask me why appointing Kyl bumped him up so much... voters are strange. It's just like those Republican voters that voted for Hiral Tipinerni because they were concerned about the teacher strikes (there were actually quite a few of these, believe it or not, even tho a congressman has little to do with this).
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History505
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« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2018, 11:35:00 am »

Sinema has been leading consistently with few point leads with McSally leading in one recent poll before this, so this is a pure toss-up.
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Daines' Bipartisan Bills™
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« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2018, 11:42:55 am »

Tossup/Tilt D. I’d rather be Sinema than McSally, but I wouldn’t be overly surprised if McSally won.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2018, 05:39:48 pm »

Atlas says Ducey got a "Kavanaugh energy" bump in his Gov. race but apparently not Sinema...what gives? Kavanaugh energy phantom appears to only haunt some

Nah Ducey didn't get a Kav bump, he got a nominating Kyl Bump.

Nah he got a “facing a crappy underfunded opponent” bump

He actually did get a Kyl bump. Garcia was closely trailing before Kyl appointment and now he is losing by 10+ in every poll.

Don't ask me why appointing Kyl bumped him up so much... voters are strange. It's just like those Republican voters that voted for Hiral Tipinerni because they were concerned about the teacher strikes (there were actually quite a few of these, believe it or not, even tho a congressman has little to do with this).

Yeah, it's pretty obvious that McCain's death and/or the Kyl appointment helped Ducey. The "crappy underfunded opponent bump" is only helping him run up the score even more.

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Webnicz
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« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2018, 05:45:35 pm »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2018, 05:52:24 pm »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.
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Webnicz
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2018, 06:09:53 pm »
« Edited: October 07, 2018, 06:13:05 pm by Webnicz »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.

That is a fair assessment. By time of the Comey letter, the deadline to mail ballots had been surpassed and most ballots had already been received or were in the mail on their way to the county recorders office.
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Chocolate Thunder
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2018, 06:25:09 pm »

This Race reminds me a lot of the North Carolina Race in 2014 between Hagan and Tillis. Hagan had a consistent 1-3 Point lead on Average throughout the Campaign and got pipped in the end.

AZ is huge Vote by mail state. probably 80% of this election will be by mail. All ballots will be mailed Tuesday, so McSally doesnt really have until "the end" to get ahead because "the end" in AZ is about 2 weeks after ballots are mailed when the majority of them have been returned.

I wonder if this is why Hillary did better than expected in AZ, particularly when compared to the nation as a whole. Because most ballots were returned before the Comey letter.

That is a fair assessment. By time of the Comey letter, the deadline to mail ballots had been surpassed and most ballots had already been received or were in the mail on their way to the county recorders office.

Then again undecideds probably wait to go to vote on that day and they broke like 3:2 R.
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