AZ-Data Orbital: Gov. Ducey (R) enjoys huge lead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 30, 2024, 01:51:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  AZ-Data Orbital: Gov. Ducey (R) enjoys huge lead
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: AZ-Data Orbital: Gov. Ducey (R) enjoys huge lead  (Read 2358 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,197
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 06, 2018, 10:15:19 AM »







Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.dataorbital.com/the-blog/new-survey-ducey-and-gaynor-lead-in-democratic-surge-scenario
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,269
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2018, 10:26:05 AM »

Multiple polls showed Ducey ahead by double digits in recent days and weeks. I guess I have to move this from lean Republican to likely Republican at least. And even closer to safe than lean. Just hope that doesn't affect the senate race to McSally's benefit. Democrats must pick up this seat.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,318
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2018, 01:28:23 PM »

Yikes, this seems to have gone the way of AZ-SEN 2016. Crazy to think that there would be so many Ducey/Sinema voters, but I guess not literally everyone votes based on who has a capital (R) or (D) next to their name.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2018, 01:38:50 PM »

Lean D.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,860
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2018, 03:03:06 PM »

They didn't poll the Senate race
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2018, 04:55:07 PM »


According to my "add 10 points to every Democrat" mind model*, Garcia is still in this race.

*Except in Nevada, there you add 10 points to the Republican instead.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2018, 05:23:28 PM »


According to my "add 10 points to every Democrat" mind model*, Garcia is still in this race.

*Except in Nevada, there you add 10 points to the Republican instead.

When you factor in the momentary Kavanaugh bump, the state's Democratic trend, VA-GOV 2017 redux, the high number of undecideds who will all break Democratic, the blue wave and the fact that Arizona is a notoriously difficult state to poll, itís obvious that Ducey is the underdog and more likely to lose than Heitkamp and Heller.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2018, 05:29:46 PM »

On a serious note, why is Garcia so weak?
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,893


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2018, 07:03:06 PM »

On a serious note, why is Garcia so weak?

It probably doesn't help that his last name is Garcia.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,895
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2018, 07:20:37 PM »

Why have there been so many polls of this race? Can we get some Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio polls instead, please?
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2018, 08:10:27 PM »

Incumbent governors are usually tough to beat.
Logged
Yellowhammer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,695
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2018, 08:29:07 PM »

Likely R --> Safe R
Logged
Webnicz
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 498
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2018, 09:31:22 PM »

thats what happens when spending is literally 50 to 1

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1047901125255475200
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,275
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2018, 10:06:04 PM »


According to my "add 10 points to every Democrat" mind model*, Garcia is still in this race.

*Except in Nevada, there you add 10 points to the Republican instead.

When you factor in the momentary Kavanaugh bump, the state's Democratic trend, VA-GOV 2017 redux, the high number of undecideds who will all break Democratic, the blue wave and the fact that Arizona is a notoriously difficult state to poll, itís obvious that Ducey is the underdog and more likely to lose than Heitkamp and Heller.
But muh democrats are supposed to win 70-80 seats, AZ, NV, TX, TN, and MS-Special!
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,860
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2018, 01:27:34 AM »

Solid to me this was tilt D
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,326
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2018, 02:34:12 AM »

Yeah, looks like this race is over.

I still don't buy the "Kyl bump" theory, though.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,860
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2018, 02:55:50 AM »

Yeah, looks like this race is over.

I still don't buy the "Kyl bump" theory, though.

McCain sympathy vote, just like Collins voted for Kavanaugh due to Barbara Bush sympathy vote. As Bushes are residents of ME. It's  a theory 😁
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2018, 09:23:36 AM »

RGA has spent nothing here? Safe R.
Logged
KingSweden
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,227
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2018, 09:26:00 AM »

Why have there been so many polls of this race? Can we get some Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio polls instead, please?

I know right
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,895
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2018, 06:13:08 PM »

Incumbent governors are usually tough to beat.

Unless you're Tom Corbett or Bruce Rauner.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,860
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2018, 06:27:48 PM »

Scott Walker can as well, be defeated
Logged
History505
Guest
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2018, 07:00:06 PM »

Likely R.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,018


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2018, 07:03:23 PM »
« Edited: October 07, 2018, 08:38:40 PM by Oryxslayer »

Why have there been so many polls of this race? Can we get some Georgia, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio polls instead, please?

I know right

Because Arizona is a Top tier senatorial race to poll, and it is literally common practice to poll all statewide offices.
Logged
Tartarus Sauce
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,359
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2018, 08:27:15 PM »

He won't win by this much, but it is rather weird that Garcia is flailing so badly. I thought he was supposed to be one of the strongest recruits for Democrats.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,326
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2018, 10:05:43 PM »

Yeah, looks like this race is over.

I still don't buy the "Kyl bump" theory, though.

McCain sympathy vote, just like Collins voted for Kavanaugh due to Barbara Bush sympathy vote. As Bushes are residents of ME. It's  a theory 😁

It sure is...
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.064 seconds with 12 queries.