Senatorial Ratings and Predictions - Hawaii

[ElectionsGuy]

Previous threads that you can still vote in: Arizona California Connecticut Delaware Florida

Posting now because I won't be on tomorrow. Obvious Safe D, 70-28 Hirono.

Ratings

No Election: 23
Safe D: 3
Likely D:
Lean D: 1
Toss-Up: 1
Lean R:
Likely R:
Safe R:
No Election: 42

Predictions

Democrats: 28
Republicans: 42

Pickups

Arizona (D+1)

Net: D+1

[MT Treasurer]

Safe D, unfortunately. Hirono wins 68-28.

[IceSpear]

Safe R because Republicans just improved 2 points on the Reuters/Ipsos generic congressional ballot poll.

[Xing]

Safe D, Hirono wins 72-25.

[TML]

Safe R because Republicans just improved 2 points on the Reuters/Ipsos generic congressional ballot poll.

You do realize that 538 thinks the Democrats' chance of winning this particular race is greater than 99.9% and the Republicans' chance is less than 0.1%, right? How could such probabilities equal Safe R?

[IceSpear]

Safe R because Republicans just improved 2 points on the Reuters/Ipsos generic congressional ballot poll.

You do realize that 538 thinks the Democrats' chance of winning this particular race is greater than 99.9% and the Republicans' chance is less than 0.1%, right? How could such probabilities equal Safe R?

The same site that said Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, right? LOL. Fake news.

[TML]

Safe R because Republicans just improved 2 points on the Reuters/Ipsos generic congressional ballot poll.

You do realize that 538 thinks the Democrats' chance of winning this particular race is greater than 99.9% and the Republicans' chance is less than 0.1%, right? How could such probabilities equal Safe R?

The same site that said Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, right? LOL. Fake news.

It was never at 99%; the peak probability was 96% in August, and the final probability on Election Day was 71% - which, BTW, was more pessimistic than most other outlets.

Anyhow, my point is that the correct assessment of the Hawaii Senate race should be Safe D.

[Xing]

538 said Bernie had a <1% chance of winning Michigan lulz

[Mr. Smith]

Safe D

[Technocracy Timmy]

Safe R because Republicans just improved 2 points on the Reuters/Ipsos generic congressional ballot poll.

You do realize that 538 thinks the Democrats' chance of winning this particular race is greater than 99.9% and the Republicans' chance is less than 0.1%, right? How could such probabilities equal Safe R?

The same site that said Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, right? LOL. Fake news.

It was never at 99%; the peak probability was 96% in August, and the final probability on Election Day was 71% - which, BTW, was more pessimistic than most other outlets.

Anyhow, my point is that the correct assessment of the Hawaii Senate race should be Safe D.

It’s at least likely R. Also you conveniently ignored when huffpost said Hillary had a 98-99.99% of winning THE NIGHT of the election.

[ltomlinson31]

Safe R because Republicans just improved 2 points on the Reuters/Ipsos generic congressional ballot poll.

You do realize that 538 thinks the Democrats' chance of winning this particular race is greater than 99.9% and the Republicans' chance is less than 0.1%, right? How could such probabilities equal Safe R?

The same site that said Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, right? LOL. Fake news.

It was never at 99%; the peak probability was 96% in August, and the final probability on Election Day was 71% - which, BTW, was more pessimistic than most other outlets.

Anyhow, my point is that the correct assessment of the Hawaii Senate race should be Safe D.

It’s at least likely R. Also you conveniently ignored when huffpost said Hillary had a 98-99.99% of winning THE NIGHT of the election.

I personally think it's Strong Lean R and closer to Likely R than Tilt R.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ask a stupid question get stupid answers. I'll give you a not stupid answer though, Safe D 70-28.

[😥]

Safe D/Hirono 72-27

[pbrower2a]

ultra-safe D, The GOP is a poor cultural match for Hawaii.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Titanium D. Mazie may even win the forbidden island.

[Calthrina950]

Safe D, unfortunately. Hirono wins 68-28.

This, though I think Hirono clears 70%, like Schatz did back in 2016.

[Skye]

Safe R because Republicans just improved 2 points on the Reuters/Ipsos generic congressional ballot poll.

You do realize that 538 thinks the Democrats' chance of winning this particular race is greater than 99.9% and the Republicans' chance is less than 0.1%, right? How could such probabilities equal Safe R?

The same site that said Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, right? LOL. Fake news.

It was never at 99%; the peak probability was 96% in August, and the final probability on Election Day was 71% - which, BTW, was more pessimistic than most other outlets.

Anyhow, my point is that the correct assessment of the Hawaii Senate race should be Safe D.

I think IceSpear is joking. Maybe. I dunno. 

[Alabama_Indy10]

Safe D, unfortunately. Hirono is in my top 5 of least favorite senators.

[Calthrina950]

Safe D, unfortunately. Hirono is in my top 5 of least favorite senators.

Who are the other four, if I may ask?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Who are the four bozos that voted Safe R/Ron Curtis?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who are the four bozos that voted Safe R/Ron Curtis?

They were probably just kidding.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Who are the four bozos that voted Safe R/Ron Curtis?

They were probably just kidding.

I figured they probably were but still, four people makes the joke overdone.