Did Susan Collins just announced her retirement?

[uti2]

Eh, I mean, it's not like voters flat out don't care about a politician's record. Even if the voters forget about something from 2+ years prior, or perhaps never knew to begin with, they can be educated about it during the election. To say otherwise ignores politicians we know have lost primaries for being insufficiently liberal/conservative or making some other bad decisions. Lipinski almost lost his, and probably in large part because someone just called him out on his record for once in an actual campaign that had actual resources. McCain's 2016 margin was significantly smaller than past elections and it's clear his record had turned some people on him. Crowley lost because it turns out the people wanted something different and he got a proper challenger in a year where liberal energy was off the charts. And this puts aside the fact that yes, sometimes people do remember past slights and hold it against politicians for years. I still know people who won't let Liz Warren off the hook for not endorsing Bernie in 2016. I talked to them about this last week. And these are not super political people either. I still can't believe they care so much about some stupid endorsement that wouldn't have made a difference anyway 2 years later.

I get what you're saying, and I usually agree with you on a host of issues, but I think you don't give voters enough credit here. Kavanaugh's confirmation is a big issue to Democrats, and Maine may not be a Solid Democratic state, but it's not really a purple state either. If Democrats polarize against Collins, and conservatives still remain skeptical of her because she doesn't do literally everything they want, she could definitely be in trouble. Whether that will actually happen though, we'll just have to see. I'm not convinced it will, but I'm not convinced it won't either. I do think it's possible.

That's what happens with Generic Rs, but Collins had an independent brand that has now basically been wiped away, she's a Generic R at this point.

While I think people are exaggerating the impact this will have, the issue will almost certainly hurt Collins more than someone like Doug Jones (even though it helps her in the primary). She’s unlikely to lose, but her margin of victory next time will be greatly reduced.

It makes it so that she performs as a Generic R and will trend the way the state votes in the general, she's going to have problems in the primary regardless because of her Obamacare vote. If she wanted to be stronger at thwarting a primary challenge, she could've should've also voted for the repeal.

[Zaybay]

^a more salient problem for Collins than just the repercussions of the Kavanaugh vote, per se, could be that it (along with some of the other votes she’s taken this term) damages her popularity to the point where she can’t recover it. In other words, I doubt this will be the vote that sinks her career in and of itself. But maybe like a last straw if you will.

Though I still think she’ll be able to trick enough of the asinine moderates again when the time comes. Unless she retires or is primaried our.

This. The vote will likely not be remembered, what will be, however, is her popularity. Voting for Kavanaugh will definitely damage it, and, due to the nature of her likely primary, for she must move right, its very possible(perhaps likely) that Collins wont be popular anymore. Heck, we got a poll a while back that had Collins already dropping with Indies and Dems, what will happen now?

There is also side effects. Now that she has done this, its more likely a stronger D will run. That D will be backed up with large cash reserves, due to the fact she voted for Kavanaugh. Dems will target her more, seeing her as not an ally, and Republicans will still not care, because of her votes for other items. This in itself, the ripple effect of her vote, will cause much more trouble than the actual impact of her vote.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

I have notice a lot of people here and on other threads asking why Collins' vote on Kavanaugh would matter so much two years out when people rarely pay attention to how Senators voted on SCOTUS nominees.  I think that there are a several reasons it might.

1. It goes against her personal brand that she would confirm Kavanaugh.  She presents herself as a moderate Republican who seeks consensus and promotes civility.  Kavanaugh and the process which confirmed him runs against all of that.
2. It killed her support with pro-choice groups who previously supported her, and I would not be surprised if it killed her support with other interest groups who once supported her as well.  Any group that supported her for a long time and now opposes her both means more ads and more damage to her brand.
3. There is a very good case to be made that Collins was the deciding vote.  There has never been a SCOTUS justice confirmed this narrowly in recent history (if at all).  And Manchin's announcement came right after hers, which is a bad look for her.
4. It draws attention to other issues where she was the deciding vote when Mitch McConnell needed her.  It certainly did for me.

That last point in particular I think is key, but also a good argument for why this isn't the thing that did her in.  She has seen a sharp decline in her popularity recently, as McConnell has relied on her as the decisive vote in much of his agenda.  "Susan Collins is always there when Mitch McConnell really needs her" seems like a potentially strong line of attack.  I expect the Kavanaugh thing to be played up if he's involved in a really controversial case, but even then, if she goes down, I don't think Kavanaugh will be the main factor that sinks her.

This may seem weird for me to say given that Kavanaugh finally convinced me to vote like a partisan Democrat in federal elections until something significant changes.  But the Kavanaugh hearings were so effective because shattered my belief that Congressional Republicans are either willing or able to restrain Trump when the moment requires it, as well as my belief that any significant numbers of Congressional Republicans are conservative in a sense that Burke or Buckley would recognize.  (I have some beliefs about what they are, but am still trying to figure out a way to describe it that both fully encompasses it and does not sound horribly insulting.)  So if not this, it seems very likely that Congressional Republicans would have found some other horrifying way to convince me that they have nearly all gone all in on Trump.

[Yank2133]

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This.

Granted, the Independent brand was always undeserved. But the Kavanaugh vote may have been a watershed moment for her constituents.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

We've entered an era where Spineless Susan, Flaky Flake, and Murky Murkowski are considered moderates. Voters are going to call BS on Republicans. What happened to the days of Wyden-Bennett or McCain-Feingold?

I'll tell you what happened. After the 2000 election, we had 30 senators from states that didn't vote for their party. After the 2016 election, we had 13 senators from states that didn't vote for their party. I'm counting VT for Republicans and Alabama for Republicans, respectively since those were post election changes.

Four of those 2016 senators came from MI, WI and PA, decided by less than 100,000 votes between the three. Partisanship has reached critical mass. We are almost at the point of no return.

Of course, what gets lost in the shuffle is that about 25 states are safe GOP. The fact that they can barely win despite this shows their ineptitude and the unpopularity of their agenda.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Immediate impact, is that ME will have Janet Mills and Jared Golden for Congress and Gov. If Susan Rice runs, Collins is a goner😁

[IceSpear]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

[Yank2133]

Comparing Collins to Grassley is a bit disingenuous IMO. Grassley may have gotten some crossover support, but he has never built himself up as an honorable, consensus builder like Collins.

Normally, I agree with you, Icespear, about certain events/votes being overblown. But I don't think that is the case with Collins. It doesn't mean she will lose in 2020, but I don't think things will go back to normal for her after her vote yesterday.

[Calthrina950]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

She has a better chance now because her biggest threat was a primary. Maine loves to nominate weak Dems but even morons like Paul LePage have won there so Susan should be fine. She was in a tough spot but probably made her best choice as much as I disagree with it.

[IceSpear]

Comparing Collins to Grassley is a bit disingenuous IMO. Grassley may have gotten some crossover support, but he has never built himself up as an honorable, consensus builder like Collins.

Normally, I agree with you, Icespear, about certain events/votes being overblown. But I don't think that is the case with Collins. It doesn't mean she will lose in 2020, but I don't think things will go back to normal for her after her vote yesterday.

Grassley always got tons of crossover support, even in 2016 despite all the Dems' impotent threats. Why? Because he was a "reasonable sane moderate" next to Great Satan Trump. The only thing Collins has to do is wait until the voters forget who Brett Kavanaugh is (won't take long) and do more faux posturing against Trump, and suddenly all the dullards will eat it up and love her again. People here need to keep in mind that we're all in the top 1% of political awareness. We're all in our own little bubble here. Most American voters are dumb, uninformed, and only start really paying attention like a month before the election.

[IceSpear]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

She could retire or lose the primary. If she runs and wins the primary then yeah, I think she wins. Maybe not by the gaudy margins she usually gets, but Maine will probably be within single digits again, so I don't see her having much of a problem getting the needed crossover votes for victory. Especially once she releases strongly worded statements condemning Trump for using the N word on Twitter in October 2020.

[Calthrina950]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

She could retire or lose the primary. If she runs and wins the primary then yeah, I think she wins. Maybe not by the gaudy margins she usually gets, but Maine will probably be within single digits again, so I don't see her having much of a problem getting the needed crossover votes for victory. Especially once she releases strongly worded statements condemning Trump for using the N word on Twitter in October 2020.

Probably so. I'm seriously starting to wonder at this point if America will remain this polarized and this partisan for the remainder of the century. Over time, the consequences for our political system will be disastrous.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Comparing Collins to Grassley is a bit disingenuous IMO. Grassley may have gotten some crossover support, but he has never built himself up as an honorable, consensus builder like Collins.

Normally, I agree with you, Icespear, about certain events/votes being overblown. But I don't think that is the case with Collins. It doesn't mean she will lose in 2020, but I don't think things will go back to normal for her after her vote yesterday.

Grassley always got tons of crossover support, even in 2016 despite all the Dems' impotent threats. Why? Because he was a "reasonable sane moderate" next to Great Satan Trump. The only thing Collins has to do is wait until the voters forget who Brett Kavanaugh is (won't take long) and do more faux posturing against Trump, and suddenly all the dullards will eat it up and love her again. People here need to keep in mind that we're all in the top 1% of political awareness. We're all in our own little bubble here. Most American voters are dumb, uninformed, and only start really paying attention like a month before the election.

Grassley won big because he was an incumbent in a swing state that faced weak opposition. Collins won because of a personal brand in a lean Dem state. Both are cunning politicians but their situations have always been different.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

She could retire or lose the primary. If she runs and wins the primary then yeah, I think she wins. Maybe not by the gaudy margins she usually gets, but Maine will probably be within single digits again, so I don't see her having much of a problem getting the needed crossover votes for victory. Especially once she releases strongly worded statements condemning Trump for using the N word on Twitter in October 2020.

Probably so. I'm seriously starting to wonder at this point if America will remain this polarized and this partisan for the remainder of the century. Over time, the consequences for our political system will be disastrous.

See my above post about Senate composition. It's worrying.

[Calthrina950]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

She could retire or lose the primary. If she runs and wins the primary then yeah, I think she wins. Maybe not by the gaudy margins she usually gets, but Maine will probably be within single digits again, so I don't see her having much of a problem getting the needed crossover votes for victory. Especially once she releases strongly worded statements condemning Trump for using the N word on Twitter in October 2020.

Probably so. I'm seriously starting to wonder at this point if America will remain this polarized and this partisan for the remainder of the century. Over time, the consequences for our political system will be disastrous.

See my above post about Senate composition. It's worrying.

I did read your post, and I agree with its conclusions. The solidification of this country into blue and red states has done much to further this process of polarization along.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

I can't believe I'm saying this but IceSpear has the most reasonable takes in this thread....

Uh, excuse me...when are my takes ever not reasonable?

I'm old enough to remember when Dems vowed to make Chuck Grassley pay for obstructing Garland...then within a week Trump did/said something stupid and distracted them with shiny objects, they all forgot, Grassley was a "reasonable sane moderate" again worthy of tons of crossover support, and then they got unceremoniously BTFO. And this was a mere 8 months before the election rather than 2 years! I fully expect something similar this time. In a month people will probably forget Kavanaugh's name and be focusing on Trump calling brown kids monkeys or something, and they'll love Susan Collins again because she had the "courage and bravery" to be a "maverick" and release a strongly worded statement condemning him for his tone.

Do you believe Collins will win reelection in 2020, if she runs again? Your overall pessimism about America and the American electorate seems to be relatively well justified at this point.

She could retire or lose the primary. If she runs and wins the primary then yeah, I think she wins. Maybe not by the gaudy margins she usually gets, but Maine will probably be within single digits again, so I don't see her having much of a problem getting the needed crossover votes for victory. Especially once she releases strongly worded statements condemning Trump for using the N word on Twitter in October 2020.

Probably so. I'm seriously starting to wonder at this point if America will remain this polarized and this partisan for the remainder of the century. Over time, the consequences for our political system will be disastrous.

See my above post about Senate composition. It's worrying.

I did read your post, and I agree with its conclusions. The solidification of this country into blue and red states has done much to further this process of polarization along.

It's actually worse if you look at the pre-2000 composition. Republicans lost Michigan, Delaware, Washington, Minnesota while picking up Virginia and Florida. Before 2000, we weren't nearly as divided. Funny what 500 votes and a 5-4 supreme Court decision can do to a nation.

[Zaybay]

I love the takes that Collins is now safe from a primary challenger because Republicans will remember her Kavanaugh vote, while also being safe from a general because voters will not remember her Kavanaugh vote. The opposite has also been prevalent on this thread so far.

What is most likely to occur from this event is a mix of two things.
1. Republicans still challenge her in a primary, because she is seen as too moderate

2. She loses some standing with Ds and Is, as she has been this entire election cycle, but no collapse.

People seem to forget how weak Collins is for a primary. She was literally not favored against the former health commissioner in a gubernatorial primary, and last I checked, people can name a senator, but I doubt the former Health Commissioner comes to mind often. In a poll of her vs literally anyone else, she was down 20/80. And ME is not a state with a weak R bench, even though a good chunk will be wiped out. I would see her approval, however, before jumping to conclusions.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Susan Collins was never vulnerable to a 2020 primary challenge for 2 reasons:

1. Republicans are smart enough to know that it would cost them the seat. If they were not this smart, she would have been primaried in 2014.

2. The Democratic wave of 2018 was guaranteed to knock out all the potential high profile primary challengers, meaning that Collins would never have been up against a serious candidate in a primary.

[Zaybay]

Susan Collins was never vulnerable to a 2020 primary challenge for 2 reasons:

1. Republicans are smart enough to know that it would cost them the seat. If they were not this smart, she would have been primaried in 2014.

2. The Democratic wave of 2018 was guaranteed to knock out all the potential high profile primary challengers, meaning that Collins would never have been up against a serious candidate in a primary.

That line of logic is complete garbage. Parties arent single entities, they are people and groups. Its very easy for literally anyone to challenge her, and people are not calculating the risks and rewards for the party when doing so. Look at IN in 2012, where a congressman beat out the popular and well respected senator. which flipped the seat, or perhaps MA in 2018, where a radical preacher got 35% of the vote against Charlie Baker, or DE 2010, or MO 2012, or the NC primary, or WV 2018 or any other primary really. There is little political strategy that goes into primary challenges, and if the candidate thinks they can win, they go for it. No one is going "all right, I want this job, and I have the staff and support to do so, but if I do it it puts a seat into competitive territory, and I dont trust myself to win the seat, so I will forgo the chance" -no one thinks like this.

And for your second reason, if I was out of the job of say, Representative of the Second district, it would be rather easy for me to just go after the senate seat. That is just an example, and not meant for anyone to think I believe that it will be him to challenge Susan. But there will be state senators, representatives, commissioners, and others out of a job, and that can be an impetus to seek higher office.

My point is that, in a state where the Rs have gone full Trumpism, there will likely be a primary challenge, and based on previous data, it will be a real fight.

[Oryxslayer]

Susan Collins was never vulnerable to a 2020 primary challenge for 2 reasons:

1. Republicans are smart enough to know that it would cost them the seat. If they were not this smart, she would have been primaried in 2014.

2. The Democratic wave of 2018 was guaranteed to knock out all the potential high profile primary challengers, meaning that Collins would never have been up against a serious candidate in a primary.

1. The Trump wing is not smart, it cares about loyalty. They will happily nominate an extremist if it means more loyalty to the president. Plenty of examples of this happening in 2018.

2. Her most prominent possible primary challanger is LePage, who cares little about a democratic wave in 2018.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Collins hasn't faced a serious challenge in two decades (and then again, only in a context favorable to Rs). The idea that she's somehow invulnerable no matter how she votes despite representing a D-leaning state and the real possibility that 2020 is a D-leaning year and an activist base that is so riled up that they've already donated 3 millions to whoever challenges her is laughable.

[MT Treasurer]

Tom Allen wasn’t a serious challenger to Collins? That’s news to me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fair enough, but my point stands.