Did Susan Collins just announced her retirement?

[Pyro]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

[KingSweden]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

[KingSweden]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

This is why I say we wait a week or two and see her approvals then

Agree

[uti2]

Strategically, it didn't make sense for Collins to vote against the ACA repeal, while voting in favor of Kavanaugh now.

Whatever was left of her "Independent" brand that she was able to keep with the ACA repeal action has now largely been neutralized. She's basically a Generic R at this, albeit a Generic R that's also vulnerable to a primary challenge considering the former vote.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dubya called Collins to make sure she voted the right way with McConnell

[Progressive Pessimist]

It depends on how relevant Kavanaugh or the Supreme Court is in 2020 and what kind of political environment it looks we will have.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state in an era of increased polarization, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

[pppolitics]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

[IceSpear]

Let’s see a poll in like a week or two and then talk

Does it matter what her approval rating is 2 years in advance? A year ago she had sky high approvals due to her vote against Trumpcare. Even if they are low now, that's plenty of time for them to recover, especially with more high profile moderate posturing. Americans have the attention span and long term memory of a schizophrenic drugged up goldfish.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

[Young Conservative]

Lol she’s not losing bud.

[pppolitics]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the joke Todd Akin.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

[pppolitics]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

My mistake.

Donnelly was up against "rape is something God intended to happen" Mourdock.

[Virginiá]

Eh, I mean, it's not like voters flat out don't care about a politician's record. Even if the voters forget about something from 2+ years prior, or perhaps never knew to begin with, they can be educated about it during the election. To say otherwise ignores politicians we know have lost primaries for being insufficiently liberal/conservative or making some other bad decisions. Lipinski almost lost his, and probably in large part because someone just called him out on his record for once in an actual campaign that had actual resources. McCain's 2016 margin was significantly smaller than past elections and it's clear his record had turned some people on him. Crowley lost because it turns out the people wanted something different and he got a proper challenger in a year where liberal energy was off the charts. And this puts aside the fact that yes, sometimes people do remember past slights and hold it against politicians for years. I still know people who won't let Liz Warren off the hook for not endorsing Bernie in 2016. I talked to them about this last week. And these are not super political people either. I still can't believe they care so much about some stupid endorsement that wouldn't have made a difference anyway 2 years later.

I get what you're saying, and I usually agree with you on a host of issues, but I think you don't give voters enough credit here. Kavanaugh's confirmation is a big issue to Democrats, and Maine may not be a Solid Democratic state, but it's not really a purple state either. If Democrats polarize against Collins, and conservatives still remain skeptical of her because she doesn't do literally everything they want, she could definitely be in trouble. Whether that will actually happen though, we'll just have to see. I'm not convinced it will, but I'm not convinced it won't either. I do think it's possible.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

My mistake.

Donnelly was up against "rape is something God intended to happen" Mourdock.

So what's the excuse for Nelson, Tester, and Brown? If Obamacare was such an impotent factor that it can be counteracted by a mere "muh Connie Mack was a weak candidate" or whatever, then clearly it didn't have anywhere near as much impact as you thought.

It's pretty obvious there was little to no penalty for voting for Obamacare two years after the fact. There may have been a penalty for Democrats who voted for it later that year in 2010. Similarly, Collins might be in trouble if the election was in a month. But it's not. 2 years is plenty of time to forget and for other issues to become far more salient than this one.

[PAK Man]

I don't think she'll run. I suspect that's why she voted for him - she knows she's not going to run for reelection, so she took the vote knowing she won't have to worry about it when it comes to voters.

Especially after it came to light that she was considering running for governor, I think it was obvious then that she has no interest in Washington anymore.

[pppolitics]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

My mistake.

Donnelly was up against "rape is something God intended to happen" Mourdock.

So what's the excuse for Nelson, Tester, and Brown? If Obamacare was such an impotent factor that it can be counteracted by a mere "muh Connie Mack was a weak candidate" or whatever, then clearly it didn't have anywhere near as much impact as you thought.

It's pretty obvious there was little to no penalty for voting for Obamacare two years after the fact. There may have been a penalty for Democrats who voted for it later that year in 2010. Similarly, Collins might be in trouble if the election was in a month. But it's not. 2 years is plenty of time to forget and for other issues to become far more salient than this one.

Nelson and Brown won reelection in 2012 when Obama won their state.

Trump is probably not going to win Maine in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

While I think people are exaggerating the impact this will have, the issue will almost certainly hurt Collins more than someone like Doug Jones (even though it helps her in the primary). She’s unlikely to lose, but her margin of victory next time will be greatly reduced.

[Virginiá]

I'm not trying to defend Kavanaugh here. I've made clear elsewhere that he should not be confirmed, due to the concerns raised by his testimony, the allegations, and some of the more objectionable aspects of his judicial record. What I'm trying to fight is the perception, held by many users on this forum, that only those who are on the left side of the ideological spectrum are "worthy" and "good". Many users here would have us reduced to a one-party system, in which Democratic policies and Democratic ideas are pushed, 24/7, without any regard for alternatives. Partisanship, more then anything else, has fueled the reaction by many to the issues on here.

You think there aren't just as many Republicans, if not more, out there who think just the same way? I mean, yes, this is a left-leaning forum, but let's not pretend like this is all on one side. I feel like this is something that shouldn't even need to be mentioned, especially after seeing waves of partisan cleansing during the GOP primaries of the Obama era.

[IceSpear]

Eh, I mean, it's not like voters flat out don't care about a politician's record. Even if the voters forget about something from 2+ years prior, or perhaps never knew to begin with, they can be educated about it during the election. To say otherwise ignores politicians we know have lost primaries for being insufficiently liberal/conservative or making some other bad decisions. Lipinski almost lost his, and probably in large part because someone just called him out on his record for once in an actual campaign that had actual resources. McCain's 2016 margin was significantly smaller than past elections and it's clear his record had turned some people on him. Crowley lost because it turns out the people wanted something different and he got a proper challenger in a year where liberal energy was off the charts. And this puts aside the fact that yes, sometimes people do remember past slights and hold it against politicians for years. I still know people who won't let Liz Warren off the hook for not endorsing Bernie in 2016. I talked to them about this last week. And these are not super political people either. I still can't believe they care so much about some stupid endorsement that wouldn't have made a difference anyway 2 years later.

I get what you're saying, and I usually agree with you on a host of issues, but I think you don't give voters enough credit here. Kavanaugh's confirmation is a big issue to Democrats, and Maine may not be a Solid Democratic state, but it's not really a purple state either. If Democrats polarize against Collins, and conservatives still remain skeptical of her because she doesn't do literally everything they want, she could definitely be in trouble. Whether that will actually happen though, we'll just have to see. I'm not convinced it will, but I'm not convinced it won't either. I do think it's possible.

Let’s see a poll in like a week or two and then talk

Does it matter what her approval rating is 2 years in advance? A year ago she had sky high approvals due to her vote against Trumpcare. Even if they are low now, that's plenty of time for them to recover, especially with more high profile moderate posturing. Americans have the attention span and long term memory of a schizophrenic drugged up goldfish.

I mean, I’d err on the side of Maine voters having retarded goldfish syndrome in two years, but it also wouldn’t be the first time a once-popular Senator/Governor in a state that leaned against their party suddenly saw their stock plummet among the state’s voters over a given issue. I don’t think we can completely rule it out.

I was being a bit hyperbolic in my initial statement, but it's still true that someone predicting something won't matter for an election 2 years in advance is going to be correct far more often than someone predicting something will matter for an election 2 years in advance. So I'm always going to side with the odds here. I mean really, just think of the dozens (hundreds? thousands?!) of things people thought would be relevant to the 2016 election in 2014 that ended up not mattering in the slightest bit.

[IceSpear]

No. Nobody will remember or care by 2020. There's going to be thousands of new shiny objects over the next 2 years.

The nominating process will be forgotten, but Collins could be blamed by a potential challenger for any Supreme Court ruling that takes place after Kavanaugh is confirmed. That is not easy to forget.

99.9% of the time an event that occurs 2 years before an election has zero impact on said election, regardless of how sure the Atlas Forum, pundits, and the media is that it will impact it. So I've got to like those odds. I'll believe it when I see it.

Eh not always. I think this is true on balance, but Ben Nelson became toxic over ACA years after the fact

Plenty of Dems who got tons of flack after voting for Obamacare were re-elected anyway. Nelson was unpopular because he was a Democrat in a deep red state, that's about it. I doubt he would've been more popular if he voted against Obamacare. Mike Ross voted against Obamacare and barely did any better than Mark Pryor who voted for it, even despite the fact that gubernatorial elections are typically less partisan than Senate elections.

Yes, but those Democrats are in blue states

Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia are blue states?

Anyway, I'm not sure why people are still acting like Maine is a solid D state anyway. It only voted for Hillary by 3 points. It's not like Collins would need to retain tons of crossover support to be re-elected at this point.

You are a joke around this forum because you didn't bother to do basic research.

Joe Donnelly and Joe Manchin weren't even in the senate. Claire McCaskill was up again the the joke Todd Akin.

Donnelly voted for it when he was in the House, Einstein.

My mistake.

Donnelly was up against "rape is something God intended to happen" Mourdock.

So what's the excuse for Nelson, Tester, and Brown? If Obamacare was such an impotent factor that it can be counteracted by a mere "muh Connie Mack was a weak candidate" or whatever, then clearly it didn't have anywhere near as much impact as you thought.

It's pretty obvious there was little to no penalty for voting for Obamacare two years after the fact. There may have been a penalty for Democrats who voted for it later that year in 2010. Similarly, Collins might be in trouble if the election was in a month. But it's not. 2 years is plenty of time to forget and for other issues to become far more salient than this one.

Nelson and Brown won reelection in 2012 when Obama won their state.

Trump is probably not going to win Maine in 2020.

Nelson would've easily still won in a landslide even if Obama lost Florida. Obama won Florida by 1 point while Nelson simultaneously won by 13 points. Brown also likely would've won even if Obama lost Ohio considering he outperformed him by a few points. And that still doesn't explain Tester.

[UncleSam]

If she retires in 2020 it’ll be because she is tired of Trump and doesn’t want to run alongside him in Maine. It will have nothing to do with this vote or two million dollars held as blackmail or any other thing.

[junior chįmp]

If she retires in 2020 it’ll be because she is tired of Trump and doesn’t want to run alongside him in Maine. It will have nothing to do with this vote or two million dollars held as blackmail or any other thing.