Which party is more likely to have both the House and the Senate

[100% pro-life no matter what]

All three 538 models now say that Republicans are more likely to keep the House than Democrats are to take the Senate.

[Xing]

Republicans, narrowly, but it's overwhelmingly likely that we have a Democratic House and a (narrowly) Republican Senate.

[IceSpear]

Republicans, obviously. The Senate is Safe R while the House is Likely D.

[Figueira]

Republicans, at least for now.

[OSR stands with Israel]

IF ND is lost , the Democrats need to pull an inside straight to win control of the Senate.


They must hold on to MO, IN , MT, and FL while also winning TN. If they lose any one of those seats the GOP will keep control of the Senate

[Pericles]

Republicans, obviously. The Senate is Safe R while the House is Likely D.

I remember the last time a party had around an 80% chance of victory and a supposedly unbreakable wall of states that would keep the opposition from victory. Didn't work out so well for them. 75-80% is not the same as 100%, Likely R is more reasonable for the Senate. While Democrats have a narrow path it's too extreme to rule them out entirely.

[IceSpear]

Republicans, obviously. The Senate is Safe R while the House is Likely D.

I remember the last time a party had around an 80% chance of victory and a supposedly unbreakable wall of states that would keep the opposition from victory. Didn't work out so well for them. 75-80% is not the same as 100%, Likely R is more reasonable for the Senate. While Democrats have a narrow path it's too extreme to rule them out entirely.

I don't agree it's 75-80%, that's the problem. I assume you're getting that number from 538. The problem is they are still severely overestimating Dem chances in North Dakota due to the ridiculous amount of weight their "fundamentals" put on "muh incumbency." Notice they have Nevada as a pure toss up because of this as well, LOL.

The simple math says that if North Dakota is gone then the Senate is practically gone as well, unless you're overly bullish on TN and/or TX which I certainly am not.

And no, I didn't think Hillary was guaranteed to win either. I believe I voted that she had an ~80% chance the day before the election, so I probably would've called it likely D.

[😥]

Republican
Senate-Likely R
House of Representatives- Likely D

[Figueira]

IF ND is lost , the Democrats need to pull an inside straight to win control of the Senate.


They must hold on to MO, IN , MT, and FL while also winning TN. If they lose any one of those seats the GOP will keep control of the Senate

TX is more likely than TN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We still have a month left, after Kavanaugh vote, other business like economy and health care will be back, Dems can still win

[Politician]

Democrats. The House is Likely D (closer to Safe than Lean) and the Senate is Lean R.

[Person Man]

Republicans have the structural advantage for both.  They could win the House while losing the GCB by 5ish points & they could win the senate while losing the GCB by even more than that.

So yeah the scenario where they win both chambers is more likely than the scenario where Democrats win both chambers.

That outcome wouldn't be pretty.

[Orser67]

Democrats. At this point, people are starting to underrate the chance that Democrats take the Senate. If the polls accurately reflect public sentiment, than Democrats have a chance of winning a very narrow majority by defending their seats and taking NV + AZ + TN (Blackburn led in the most recent poll but Bredesen led in the two that came before). And if the polls are wrong, I think it's far more likely that they're underestimating the party that's currently out of power.