WV- Global Strategy: Manchin +12

[MT Treasurer]

LOL, okay.  As for your third point, why are you convinced those voters are any more essential than any other area of the state?  Would Jenkins not be doing worse in the 1st than Morrisey?  This is probably 2010 numbers (from Statistical Atlas), but the population is broken down about like this:

WV-2: 625,140
WV-1: 617,080
WV-3: 603,880

WV-3 has the fewest number of voters, and I would wager that WV-1 has the highest turnout.  Morrisey will lose because he's not a better candidate than Manchin, Manchin as an incumbent who is popular in the state for a Democrat and because this is a Trump midterm (no, I don't think it's particularly relevant that Trump won WV by so much to this fact) ... not because a Republican running in WV needs better margins in WV-3 than in any other district, IMO.

First of all, I strongly doubt that Jenkins lost his primary because he was a Democrat in 2013, lol. Second, there is really no reason to believe that Jenkins would have underperformed generic R in the traditionally more Republican parts of the state like the Eastern Panhandle (and it seems as if Morrisey isn’t doing particularly well there either right now). Third, to win statewide, a Republican obviously has to make inroads in the most Democratic district (in statewide/Senate races) in the state, WV-03. Jenkins was better-suited to pull it off than Morrisey for obvious reasons (represented the district in Congress, more appealing profile/background, etc.). Like it or not, there are a ton of voters in WV who vote R in presidential races but D in statewide races.

[RINO Tom]

LOL, okay.  As for your third point, why are you convinced those voters are any more essential than any other area of the state?  Would Jenkins not be doing worse in the 1st than Morrisey?  This is probably 2010 numbers (from Statistical Atlas), but the population is broken down about like this:

WV-2: 625,140
WV-1: 617,080
WV-3: 603,880

WV-3 has the fewest number of voters, and I would wager that WV-1 has the highest turnout.  Morrisey will lose because he's not a better candidate than Manchin, Manchin as an incumbent who is popular in the state for a Democrat and because this is a Trump midterm (no, I don't think it's particularly relevant that Trump won WV by so much to this fact) ... not because a Republican running in WV needs better margins in WV-3 than in any other district, IMO.

First of all, I strongly doubt that Jenkins lost his primary because he was a Democrat in 2013, lol. Second, there is really no reason to believe that Jenkins would have underperformed generic R in the traditionally more Republican parts of the state like the Eastern Panhandle (and it seems as if Morrisey isn’t doing particularly well there either right now). Third, to win statewide, a Republican obviously has to make inroads in the most Democratic district (in statewide/Senate races) in the state, WV-03. Jenkins was better-suited to pull it off than Morrisey for obvious reasons (represented the district in Congress, more appealing profile/background, etc.). Like it or not, there are a ton of voters in WV who vote R in presidential races but D in statewide races.

I neither like or dislike that, and I obviously acknowledge it as true.  However, I just question if Jenkins really would have pulled THAT many of those voters from Manchin, and I do think he would have done a bit worse in the Eastern Panhandle.  I am definitely not saying Morrisey was a better candidate than Jenkins; I am questioning if Jenkins was really any better, which is your claim.  I think their vote "swaps" would have largely cancelled each other out.  Who knows, though?  I think Manchin would have beat both of them, but I think he will definitely beat Morrisey, and that's the matchup we have.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nothing new. Likely DINO.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

DADDY JOE FOR KAVANAUGH OH BLEEP YEAH GO MANCHIN!!!!!!!!! WOOOHOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

[MT Treasurer]

DADDY JOE FOR KAVANAUGH OH BLEEP YEAH GO MANCHIN!!!!!!!!! WOOOHOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

If Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, this race is over (assuming it isn’t already).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

51-49(Murkowski No, Manchin Yes)?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

51-49(Murkowski No, Manchin Yes)?

Correct.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DADDY JOE FOR KAVANAUGH OH BLEEP YEAH GO MANCHIN!!!!!!!!! WOOOHOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

If Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, this race is over (assuming it isn’t already).

Celebrating Manchin voting for Kavanaugh is no big deal

[Badger]

Polls are like sperm.  Every one is sacred and very few hit their mark.*












*Polls and sperm are actually not alike.

You are correct. In fact, lawyers and sperm are very alike.


Each has a one in six million chance of developing into a human being. Bah-DUM, ching!

[Bandit3 the Worker]

If Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, this race is over (assuming it isn’t already).

Nah, he'll still win, but it'll be much closer.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, this race is over (assuming it isn’t already).

Nah, he'll still win, but it'll be much closer.

Lol this gives him a chance to win it boosts him.

[Calthrina950]

If Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, this race is over (assuming it isn’t already).

Nah, he'll still win, but it'll be much closer.

Lol this gives him a chance to win it boosts him.

His vote on Kavanaugh turns this into a Likely Democratic race, in my opinion. I keep in mind the polls that said Manchin would enjoy a double-digit lead over Morrisey if he voted to confirm.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It went from Very Likely D to Somewhat Likely D.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Manchin doesn't need to vote for Kavanaugh to win re-election.