WV- Global Strategy: Manchin +12

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Manchin (D): 48%
Morrisey (R): 36%

https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueMidterm2018/comments/9l3jah/sfpathe_new_global_strategy_group_poll_for_wvsen/?st=JMTGCSHG&sh=6538b1ab

[Ebsy]

FYI: This is an internal.

[Yellowhammer]

In b4 Bagel says this race is still Lean R

[Zaybay]

But I thought this race was for Morrisey because Bagel told me!

[Gass3268]

FYI: This is an internal.

But not too different from the public polling.

[MT Treasurer]

Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate.

[Ebsy]

Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate.

The trajectory of this race has been remarkably similar to 2012!

[Politician]

Where's the Trump bump now? What happened to the racist hicks who viewed Manchin as a member of the anti white hate group?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Terrible news for the GOP in WVa, a state that went to Trump by 42 points

[ON Progressive]

Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate.

What makes him such a bad candidate? I know he has the issue with having run for Congress in NJ before, but that didn't prevent him from beating a Dem incumbent for AG in 2012.

[ElectionsGuy]

There's no doubt Manchin is ahead and has an overwhelming chance to win, but that's an awful lot of undecided. Even if this poll was 52-40 I would feel much more confident in Manchin winning.

[DINGO Joe]

Polls are like sperm.  Every one is sacred and very few hit their mark.*












*Polls and sperm are actually not alike.

[Zaybay]

Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate.

What makes him such a bad candidate? I know he has the issue with having run for Congress in NJ before, but that didn't prevent him from beating a Dem incumbent for AG in 2012.

Historical Revisionism mostly. He is a rather mid tier candidate, perhaps a bit below average, with his problems being his residency issues and his Big Pharma connections. Its just Atlas overreacting and saying a candidate that loses was trash all along. Go look at the comments for the first two months after the primary, where Atlas posters declared that WV would go Red and that the race was saved by god tier candidate Morrisey.

[ON Progressive]

Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate.

What makes him such a bad candidate? I know he has the issue with having run for Congress in NJ before, but that didn't prevent him from beating a Dem incumbent for AG in 2012.

Historical Revisionism mostly. He is a rather mid tier candidate, perhaps a bit below average, with his problems being his residency issues and his Big Pharma connections. Its just Atlas overreacting and saying a candidate that loses was trash all along. Go look at the comments for the first two months after the primary, where Atlas posters declared that WV would go Red and that the race was saved by god tier candidate Morrisey.

Morrisey was never a good candidate tbh. I remember laughing at those takes that Morrisey was a great candidate. The only reason people were saying that is because Blankenship was so godawful as a candidate that he looked great compared to him.

[Zaybay]

Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate.

What makes him such a bad candidate? I know he has the issue with having run for Congress in NJ before, but that didn't prevent him from beating a Dem incumbent for AG in 2012.

Historical Revisionism mostly. He is a rather mid tier candidate, perhaps a bit below average, with his problems being his residency issues and his Big Pharma connections. Its just Atlas overreacting and saying a candidate that loses was trash all along. Go look at the comments for the first two months after the primary, where Atlas posters declared that WV would go Red and that the race was saved by god tier candidate Morrisey.

Morrisey was never a good candidate tbh. I remember laughing at those takes that Morrisey was a great candidate. The only reason people were saying that is because Blankenship was so godawful as a candidate that he looked great compared to him.

true, he was rather poor, though I would say below average, but my gripe is with the people who lauded him with praise and declared Manchin dead, and are now declaring Morrisey the worst candidate around. The same was done for FL-Gov, along with a multitude of other races.

[MT Treasurer]

Nah, I’ve always said that Morrisey is a far weaker candidate than Jenkins. He’s extremely unlikeable, not charismatic, from the wrong part of the state, has lobbyist ties, failed ro respond effectively and early enough to negative ads, etc. Not that GOP primary voters care about electability, though.

Morrisey was never a good candidate tbh. I remember laughing at those takes that Morrisey was a great candidate. The only reason people were saying that is because Blankenship was so godawful as a candidate that he looked great compared to him.

^This.

[MT Treasurer]

true, he was rather poor, though I would say below average, but my gripe is with the people who lauded him with praise and declared Manchin dead, and are now declaring Morrisey the worst candidate around. The same was done for FL-Gov, along with a multitude of other races.

Believe it or not, I actually wasn’t one of those people.

[President Johnson]

So much for the TRUMP BUMP. This race has always been Lean Democratic. Joe Manchin is just the perfect fir for his state and Morrisey is not the best candidate.

And don't show this poll to Bagel

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OMG DADDY MANCHIN!!!!!!! YES JOE!!!!

[Xing]

A bit Democratic friendly, but Manchin should win by mid-high single digits.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Likely D.

[IceSpear]

Where's the Trump bump now? What happened to the racist hicks who viewed Manchin as a member of the anti white hate group?

Democratic internal has Manchin up 12. Atlas: Great poll! Safe D!

Non partisan A rated pollster has Cramer up 12. Atlas: Junk poll! Toss Up/Tilt D!

That Dem wave sure is gonna be powerful. Maybe Barrasso might even be vulnerable.

[RINO Tom]

I guess I am the only one who never saw these waves and waves of posts praising Morrisey as some godly, A-tier candidate, LOL.  All I ever saw posted was that A) he wasn't that crazy halfwit with the mustache and B) it's really not that surprising that the GOP primary electorate didn't nominate a person who was a Democrat practically yesterday just because MT Treasurer told them over and over that he would beat Manchin, LOL.

[MT Treasurer]

I guess I am the only one who never saw these waves and waves of posts praising Morrisey as some godly, A-tier candidate, LOL.  All I ever saw posted was that A) he wasn't that crazy halfwit with the mustache and B) it's really not that surprising that the GOP primary electorate didn't nominate a person who was a Democrat practically yesterday just because MT Treasurer told them over and over that he would beat Manchin, LOL.

1) I never predicted that he would definitely beat Manchin, just that he would make it a Tossup.
2) Jenkins wasn’t a Demorat "practically yesterday", that’s a gross exaggeration right there. And you implying that someone is a RINO is pretty rich as well.
3) You don’t have to be a genius to realize that he would have been a far stronger candidate than Morrisey, who’s having a hard time winning over those DINOs in WV-03 right now!

[RINO Tom]

I guess I am the only one who never saw these waves and waves of posts praising Morrisey as some godly, A-tier candidate, LOL.  All I ever saw posted was that A) he wasn't that crazy halfwit with the mustache and B) it's really not that surprising that the GOP primary electorate didn't nominate a person who was a Democrat practically yesterday just because MT Treasurer told them over and over that he would beat Manchin, LOL.

1) I never predicted that he would definitely beat Manchin, just that he would make it a Tossup.
2) Jenkins wasn’t a Demorat "practically yesterday", that’s a gross exaggeration right there. And you implying that someone is a RINO is pretty rich as well.
3) You don’t have to be a genius to realize that he would have been a far stronger candidate than Morrisey, who’s having a hard time winning over those DINOs in WV-03 right now!

LOL, okay.  As for your third point, why are you convinced those voters are any more essential than any other area of the state?  Would Jenkins not be doing worse in the 1st than Morrisey?  This is probably 2010 numbers (from Statistical Atlas), but the population is broken down about like this:

WV-2: 625,140
WV-1: 617,080
WV-3: 603,880

WV-3 has the fewest number of voters, and I would wager that WV-1 has the highest turnout.  Morrisey will lose because he's not a better candidate than Manchin, Manchin as an incumbent who is popular in the state for a Democrat and because this is a Trump midterm (no, I don't think it's particularly relevant that Trump won WV by so much to this fact) ... not because a Republican running in WV needs better margins in WV-3 than in any other district, IMO.