Why is Tester doing so much better than Heitkamp?

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, obviously Montana is (5-10 points) less Republican. But really this is something that I'm questioning now more than ever. Tester brands himself well for the state but his voting record is not that moderate, at least not like Heitkamp, Manchin, or even Donnelly. Heitkamp is doing the things she needs to do to be re-elected in a very Republican state, but I think most of us agree she is now an underdog. Is it something to do with the differences in Republican opponents in those states (Rosendale vs Cramer), differences in the way Tester and Heitkamp are running their campaigns, or something more fundamental about political differences between the two bordering states? Discuss.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Tester:

1) Is a better candidate
2) Is more likable, relatable, and charismatic (watch the ads he records at his farm)
3) Is male (sorry but it matters. It obviously shouldn't, but it does)

And also, ND has had a huge influx of oil workers over the last six years, and MT hasn't had anything comparable.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

North Dakota was 16 more points Republican in 2016.

Why does atlas not realize that Trump won ND by 36?

[TML]

North Dakota was 16 more points Republican in 2016.

Why does atlas not realize that Trump won ND by 36?

That in and itself doesn't account for everything. If that were the only deciding factor, Joe Manchin should also be losing, but he isn't.

[UWS]

Because North Dakota votes in the right of Montana.

Since 1980, the Republican presidential nominee has always won a higher percentage in terms of popular vote in North Dakota than Montana.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_Montana

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_elections_in_North_Dakota

[Yellowhammer]

1) Rosendale is a weaker opponent than Cramer
2) Montana votes significantly to the left of ND
3) Tester is a more entrenched incumbent than Heitkamp
4) Heitkamp is facing a fellow congressional incumbent who won 69% of the vote in his last statewide election, in contrast to her 50%.

[UWS]

North Dakota was 16 more points Republican in 2016.

Why does atlas not realize that Trump won ND by 36?

That in and itself doesn't account for everything. If that were the only deciding factor, Joe Manchin should also be losing, but he isn't.

It's partly because Manchin voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch's nomination at the SCOTUS, because he's a moderate Democrat and he supports coal. Meanwhile, unlike Manchin, both Heitkamp and Tester are voting against Brett Kavanaugh's nomination at the Supreme Court and Tester supported Barack Obama's War on Coal (even though Montana is America's 7th coal producer and coal generates 55 % of Montana's electricity).

[Gass3268]

North Dakota was 16 more points Republican in 2016.

Why does atlas not realize that Trump won ND by 36?

That in and itself doesn't account for everything. If that were the only deciding factor, Joe Manchin should also be losing, but he isn't.

It's partly because Manchin voted to confirm Neil Gorsuch's nomination at the SCOTUS, because he's a moderate Democrat and he supports coal. Meanwhile, unlike Manchin, both Heitkamp and Tester are voting against Brett Kavanaugh's nomination at the Supreme Court and Tester supported Barack Obama's War on Coal (even though Montana is America's 7th coal producer and coal generates 55 % of Montana's electricity).

Heitkamp has yet to state her voting intentions and lol on War on Coal. The only bigger joke than the War on Coal is the War on Christmas.

[pbrower2a]

Montana is more agricultural and has little oil production. Trump is hurting farmers.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't quite understand -why- ND suddenly moved significantly to the right of MT in 2016.

If you look at electoral maps for most of the last 30 years or so, ND tended to vote about 5-6 points to the right of MT, including 2012 (Romney won ND by 20 and MT by 14).  But then in 2016, ND was 16 points to the right of MT (Trump won ND by 36 and MT by 20).  

What is the difference between these states that created this sudden rift?
I get the oil argument, but the GOP has clearly been the pro-oil party at least since GWB.

[Xing]

Because he’s a #populist farmer with an awesome haircut.

/s

Because there’s more of a Democratic base in Montana, since there are cities like Missoula. So Tester has a larger base of support.

[MT Treasurer]

Because he knows the average MT voter can identify with him:

[Orser67]

I don't quite understand -why- ND suddenly moved significantly to the right of MT in 2016.

What is the difference between these states that created this sudden rift?
I get the oil argument, but the GOP has clearly been the pro-oil party at least since GWB.

The difference is that, while other states were affected, ND was the absolute center of the energy boom of the last few years. For the last few years, I've been wondering if that boom might take ND out of the semi-swing area that MT also occupies, and Heiktamp's poor polling seems to indicate that that might be the case.

[junior chįmp]

Tester is more populist because he lost fingers in a meat grinder

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dakotas are more GOP now than ever before

[Tekken_Guy]

-Cramer is more popular and well-known than Rosendale.
-ND is largely oil, compared to MT’s agriculture.
-ND doesn’t have equivalents to Missoula and Bozeman.
-ND votes to the right of MT.
-Tester is more well-liked than Heitkamp.
-The gap between the two states widened rapidly in 2016.
-There are several sexists more comfortable voting for Tester than Heitkamp.
-People are angry over body-slamming Gianforte.

[MT Treasurer]

-People are angry over body-slamming Gianforte.

Uh, no. That has zero impact on the Senate race, and doesn’t really explain why Rosendale’s doing worse than Gianforte in the polls.

You guys have mentioned the main reasons already, but I’d also add that people underestimate how effective negative ads are. Mondale_was_an_insidejob may not believe it, but these ads do matter, especially in states like MT and ND, where Senate races are generally won by tearing down your opponent. Rosendale and Heitkamp have both faced a barrage of pretty devastating negative ads, and the MT GOP didn’t really respond early and effectively enough to those ads. Rosendale is also getting outraised, outspent and out-advertised by Tester/Democratic groups, and it isn’t even close.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Because Montana is a bluer state easy as that

[MycroftCZ]

Because believe it or not, North Dakota and Montana are different states.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Because believe it or not, North Dakota and Montana are different states.

This.

Like I said in another thread, Montana is not really a truly "rural" state in the same way or to nearly the same extent that North Dakota is. The land use patterns are very different, and this leads to very different politics. The part of Montana that is receptive to Democrats is primarily in the western Rockies. The part of North Dakota that is (somewhat) receptive to Democrats is primarily New-Collin-Peterson-esota.

[junior chįmp]

-People are angry over body-slamming Gianforte.

Uh, no. That has zero impact on the Senate race, and doesn’t really explain why Rosendale’s doing worse than Gianforte in the polls.

You guys have mentioned the main reasons already, but I’d also add that people underestimate how effective negative ads are. Mondale_was_an_insidejob may not believe it, but these ads do matter, especially in states like MT and ND, where Senate races are generally won by tearing down your opponent. Rosendale and Heitkamp have both faced a barrage of pretty devastating negative ads, and the MT GOP didn’t really respond early and effectively enough to those ads. Rosendale is also getting outraised, outspent and out-advertised by Tester/Democratic groups, and it isn’t even close.

The Effects of Negative Political Campaigns: A Meta-Analytic Reassessment

Richard R. Lau Rutgers University
Lee Sigelman The George Washington University
Ivy Brown Rovner Rutgers University

[Senator Incitatus]

Quantitative campaign studies? In my Atlas Forum? It could happen to you.

[ctherainbow]

- The states have different demographics, because neighboring each other does not mean similar demographics(see PA vs NJ, AZ vs NM, UT vs CO, or NC vs SC)
- Huge influx in ND of energy workers who are scared of the liberal Dems enacting environmental regulations, and/or climbing through their windows at night to eat their small children
- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester's haircut
- People are afraid Heitkamp has no soul because gingers

[Skye]

1) Rosendale is a weaker opponent than Cramer
2) Montana votes significantly to the left of ND
3) Tester is a more entrenched incumbent than Heitkamp
4) Heitkamp is facing a fellow congressional incumbent who won 69% of the vote in his last statewide election, in contrast to her 50%.

Pretty much. Also, the changing demographics of ND have made it far more hostile to Democrats than in the past.

[ElectionsGuy]

- The states have different demographics, because neighboring each other does not mean similar demographics(see PA vs NJ, AZ vs NM, UT vs CO, or NC vs SC)
- Huge influx in ND of energy workers who are scared of the liberal Dems enacting environmental regulations, and/or climbing through their windows at night to eat their small children
- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester's haircut
- People are afraid Heitkamp has no soul because gingers

They actually do have quite similar demographics, see here, the main differences between the states are median income ($59K in ND vs $48K in MT) and North Dakota being more Republican.

But the rest of your points are solid.