Cruz vs O'Rourke prediction

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

51-48 Cruz

[IceSpear]

snip

I feel like I should get partial credit for that one. I was right that a Republican would be governor of West Virginia, I just picked the wrong one.

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

Race will end up within two points.

[😥]

Cruz 50-47

[Terry the Fat Shark]

snip

I feel like I should get partial credit for that one. I was right that a Republican would be governor of West Virginia, I just picked the wrong one.

Still won with a D next to his name though

[Ronnie]

Cruz+6

[BaldEagle1991]

Beto O’Rourke: 50%
Ted Cruz: 49%

[SnowLabrador]

51-46 Cruz.

[daveosupremo]

Cruz by 6-8

[History505]

My brain says 50-48 Cruz

My heart says 50-48 O'Rourke

This is exactly how I'm feeling.

[SN2903]

Cruz 53 O'Rourke 45

[Skye]

Cruz         52
O'Rourke   46

I'd say it would be a good result for O'Rourke. 47% and beyond that would be insane.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

Cruz is an incumbent, but an unpopular one in a Democratic-leaning year, so I would shocked if Cruz matches Donald Trump's margin of victory, so let's say +8% Cruz is the point where I am amazed at his performance.  Beto could win, but if he hits a 2% margin I will be astonished.  If I average the numbers I consider stretching plausibility, I get a +3% margin for Cruz.  This is slightly better than FiveThirtyEight is giving O'Rourke, but not by much. 

I am not going to try to figure in Neal Dikeman's share, but I will say that seeing as I was going to vote for Dikeman and the only people I know who reacted to the Kavanaugh hearing by vowing to vote Democratic (who weren't voting Democratic already) have been small-l libertarians (I read a few Twitter threads, so it's not just my disproportionately libertarian social circle), and also considering that people seem more willing to vote third party when races aren't close, I do expect him to underperform relative to normal Libertarian candidate performance in Texas.

On the other hand, Dikeman's website is full of political cartoons he drew himself which are so bad they're halfway back around to being funny.  If he can get them about 42% worse, maybe he and his awful cartoons can go viral.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beto 51-49%

[Aurelio21]

Despite BetoMania, the congresional district polls indicate a result Cruz - O'Rourke 51 to 47

Trump won Texas by a margin of 9 %. Let's assume the 3 NYT/Siena polls represent the demographic average of Texas:
TX- 7 :  Cruz +4 -(Trump -3) = Cruz +7  (Majority hispanic but low hispanic turnout, obvious Preference by hispanics for latino sounding name even if in bed with their nemesis)
TX-23 : Cruz -7 - (Trump - 1) = Cruz  -6 (Suburbia Texas, home turf of Beto)
TX-31 : Cruz +9 - (Trump +13) =Cruz -4 (Exurbian and rural texan voters)

DeltaCruz= (+7-6*2-4*2)/5 = -5

Due to low hispanic midterm turnout (which obviously skew to Cruz, which reminds me of Winston Churchill's "The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute talk to an average voter") yet higher turnout in suburban Texas and Beto visiting every county I am weighing these at the optimum for Beto, thus my prediction is the ceiling for him.

[LabourJersey]

51-48 Cruz

[Progressive Pessimist]

Cruz wins by nine points.