Which helps Democrats more politically...

[aaroncd107]

The appointment of Kavanaugh is definitely going to help the Democrats, but I think that the net effect of the debate is more likely to help the GOP win the Senate, even with Kavanaugh's confirmation.

This shocked me when I realized it, because as far as I could tell the only people who were strongly supporting Kavanaugh were all Trump supporters, and I couldn't see how the Senate hearing could drive anyone who wasn't.  What I didn't think about were two things: some Trump supporters actually were willing to support Democrats, and #metoo terrifies a lot of people who support Trump only reluctantly.

I have seen several stories more like mine, all from libertarians who didn't like Trump but didn't really want to or really didn't want to vote for Democrats.  But I have seen a roughly equal number of stories from people who claim they voted for Trump only reluctantly and are glad they have Trump instead of any Democratic president, but claim they weren't going to vote and now are.  It appears that the Kavanaugh hearings have converted a fairly small minority of previously independent or right-leaning voters to effectively solid Democrats for the near future, while motivating a roughly equally large and formerly demotivated portion of the GOP base.  Meanwhile the Democratic base was already at peak intensity.

So in the Senate, where the map is highly concentrated in red states where turning out the base is the best strategy for GOP candidates, Kavanaugh helps the GOP.  It probably helps them in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Montana. It probably hurts in purple states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.  Texas is probably a light enough shade of red that it helps the Democrats with Kavanaugh being confirmed, but I am no longer sure of that; it could go either way here.

I think that most GOP Senators are probably as surprised as I am by this result, but even if I thought that they knew it would pan out this way and this was another surprisingly brilliant but utterly despicable move by Mitch McConnell and friends, I am still horrified by their willingness to put someone like Kavanaugh on the court, especially in the manner that they did, in order to win a Senate seat in North Dakota.

Kavanaugh will be confirmed in a week or two and democrats will surge. Bittersweet, because that does make the court more right wing.... but at least we win the house and maybe even the senate(though that's looking less likely)

I think that, based on how the GOP has acted with SCOTUS since Garland, we’re going to end up with a conservative filling Kennedy’s seat - that’s inevitable to me. I would rather he be confirmed now with the possibility something damning comes out after he’s seated than have it remain up in the air through November the 6th or have someone who is ideologically just as bad sitting in that seat who likely has no chance of being removed. There’s going to be a slaughtering for Democrats in the Senate if this is still a topic on election day and if we let that happen we’re fooling ourselves.

When I see Democrats saying things like this, it makes me very upset.  For me the biggest issue with Kavanaugh is that he is unfit to be a judge at all, his conservatism has absolutely nothing to do with that.  I already know that 50 Republican senators don't see the issues with Kavanaugh.  When Democrats' main complaint is Kavanaugh's views, it makes me wonder how many Democrats see the issue with him either.  

I mean, I prefer liberal judges too, but conservatism alone isn't even enough for me to oppose a judge's confirmation, much less get upset about it. And I get why it might be a slightly bigger deal for partisans, but it still shouldn't be the main thing you are complaining about. When you make it all about his conservatism, it implies that you don't actually understand what's wrong with him, why his confirmation is so unprecedented and horrifying.  It makes me suspect that if Collins' magical thinking results in her vision board coming true, that y'all would turn out to be completely fine with him after all.

I’m a mixed bag on Kavanaugh. I understand the real issue with him. But this whole situation is just making me feel hopeless. I really don’t want to get rid of the “presumption of innocence” part because taking that away will make SCOTUS nominations a sh**t show for the rest of history. At the same time, I feel betrayed by Flake and Collins for not pushing the FBI investigation forward. 40 people ignored? That’s too much potential evidence lying around that could turn this around completely! I want to believe Kavanaugh and Ford at the same time but there’s no way to do that. As Collins said today, Ford’s name was leaked - not at her will and though that may have changed history I don’t think it was right for a Democrat to do that. My ignorance of the “real issue” is repression, I think. I’m afraid that this has set a very scary precedent for future confirmations - whether Kav’s guilty or not. Lindsey Graham seems hell bent on “revenge” here no matter what and i’m sure at least 90 other senators feel the same way.

[Xeuma]

--snip--
I mean, I prefer liberal judges too, but conservatism alone isn't even enough for me to oppose a judge's confirmation, much less get upset about it. And I get why it might be a slightly bigger deal for partisans, but it still shouldn't be the main thing you are complaining about. When you make it all about his conservatism, it implies that you don't actually understand what's wrong with him, why his confirmation is so unprecedented and horrifying.  It makes me suspect that if Collins' magical thinking results in her vision board coming true, that y'all would turn out to be completely fine with him after all.

This absolutely. The president has the power to appoint nominations and the Senate has the obligation to give each nominee a vote on their merits. There was a time when nominees would be approved unanimously regardless of their judicial leanings and those of the senators. (Of course barring anything damning coming out). The Senate's role is advice and consent and that does not, in my view, include a judicial philosophy but general aptitude to be a judge.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

I’m a mixed bag on Kavanaugh. I understand the real issue with him. But this whole situation is just making me feel hopeless. I really don’t want to get rid of the “presumption of innocence” part because taking that away will make SCOTUS nominations a sh**t show for the rest of history. At the same time, I feel betrayed by Flake and Collins for not pushing the FBI investigation forward. 40 people ignored? That’s too much potential evidence lying around that could turn this around completely! I want to believe Kavanaugh and Ford at the same time but there’s no way to do that. As Collins said today, Ford’s name was leaked - not at her will and though that may have changed history I don’t think it was right for a Democrat to do that. My ignorance of the “real issue” is repression, I think. I’m afraid that this has set a very scary precedent for future confirmations - whether Kav’s guilty or not. Lindsey Graham seems hell bent on “revenge” here no matter what and i’m sure at least 90 other senators feel the same way.

I think he probably is a sexual predator and that a reasonable chance of it would be disqualifying, and the "presumption of innocence" argument so annoys me that there is a good chance I will start my first thread on the subject.  That said, while it annoys me because I see it a lot and it seems to be based on multiple implicit fallacies, it doesn't anger me. And if the only issue were that after a comprehensive confirmation hearing we still didn't know for sure he was a sexual predator and I thought people were giving him too much benefit of the doubt, I would be peeved and maybe even angry, but I would be nowhere near the degree of furious that I am now.

I think that the real issues with Kavanaugh, in reverse order of priority, are that he A. cannot control his temper, B. was nakedly partisan in a prepared statement, C. engaged in conspiracy theories in a prepared statement, and D. engaged in perjury.

The things that piss me off about the process, also in reverse order of priority, are that A. the process was far too rushed, B. Republican Senators reinforced and praised his outbursts and conspiracy theorizing, C. he will end up on the court, and D. the Republican reaction to his perjury.