Which helps Democrats more politically...

[Mike Thick]

.

EDIT: This isn’t meant to be a strategy question. I’m just asking which outcome you think is better for Dems.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, then the Republican base will get complacent with politics, and not show up as a result, while the Democratic base will get angry with politics, and show up at extremely high levels. D+4 in the Senate, and D+70-80 in the House.

If Kavanaugh is not confirmed, then nothing changes. D+2 in the Senate, and D+40-50 in the House.

[Pyro]

It's looking as though Dems are in a lose/lose situation.

[Yank2133]

Neither since Kavanaugh's confirmation/withdrawal won't have much of an impact on Democratic voters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know and anyone who claims they do is delusional.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ironically the prolonged Kavanaugh shenanigans seem to be slightly helping the GOP. This flies in the face of the "ram him through" logic where McConnell and Grassley thought the reverse would happen.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I don't know and anyone who claims they do is delusional.

[TML]

I still think that Democrats will have motivation even if Kavanaugh (or another Trump-appointed person) fills Kennedy's seat. They will want to have leverage over the potential vacancies of seats currently held by Ginsburg and/or Breyer.

[TarHeelDem]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, then the Republican base will get complacent with politics, and not show up as a result, while the Democratic base will get angry with politics, and show up at extremely high levels. D+4 in the Senate, and D+70-80 in the House.

If Kavanaugh is not confirmed, then nothing changes. D+2 in the Senate, and D+40-50 in the House.

[😥]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, then the Republican base will get complacent with politics, and not show up as a result, while the Democratic base will get angry with politics, and show up at extremely high levels. D+3 in the Senate, and D+60-70 in th6e House.

If Kavanaugh is not confirmed, then nothing changes. D+1 in the Senate, and D+40-50 in the House.

[MillennialModerate]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, then the Republican base will get complacent with politics, and not show up as a result, while the Democratic base will get angry with politics, and show up at extremely high levels. D+4 in the Senate, and D+70-80 in the House.

If Kavanaugh is not confirmed, then nothing changes. D+2 in the Senate, and D+40-50 in the House.

You can’t be serious with this

[Politician]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, it helps the Democrats. If Kavanaugh is rejected, it helps the Republicans.

[KingSweden]

If Kavanaugh is confirmed, it helps the Democrats. If Kavanaugh is rejected, it helps the Republicans.

Exactly my thinking. Whoever is more aggrieved by the conclusion of the process benefits.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Kavanaugh will be confirmed in a week or two and democrats will surge. Bittersweet, because that does make the court more right wing.... but at least we win the house and maybe even the senate(though that's looking less likely)

[aaroncd107]

I think that, based on how the GOP has acted with SCOTUS since Garland, we’re going to end up with a conservative filling Kennedy’s seat - that’s inevitable to me. I would rather he be confirmed now with the possibility something damning comes out after he’s seated than have it remain up in the air through November the 6th or have someone who is ideologically just as bad sitting in that seat who likely has no chance of being removed. There’s going to be a slaughtering for Democrats in the Senate if this is still a topic on election day and if we let that happen we’re fooling ourselves.

[BudgieForce]

Kavanaugh will be confirmed in a week or two and democrats will surge. Bittersweet, because that does make the court more right wing.... but at least we win the house and maybe even the senate(though that's looking less likely)

He'll be confirmed Saturday unless I'm mistaken.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kavanaugh will be confirmed in a week or two and democrats will surge. Bittersweet, because that does make the court more right wing.... but at least we win the house and maybe even the senate(though that's looking less likely)

Kavanaugh will ensure that immigration reform by a progressive Congress, which includes PR statehood would never be permitted, judicial review.

[Xeuma]

Kavanaugh will be confirmed in a week or two and democrats will surge. Bittersweet, because that does make the court more right wing.... but at least we win the house and maybe even the senate(though that's looking less likely)

Kavanaugh will ensure that immigration reform by a progressive Congress, which includes PR statehood would never be permitted, judicial review.

How in the hell is the Supreme Court going to block Puerto Rican statehood?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Judicial review, an act by Congress can be struck down by SCrt

[Xeuma]

Judicial review, an act by Congress can be struck down by SCrt

Yes, but statehood is a power specifically granted to Congress. There are no grounds by which the Supreme Court can strike down statehood.

Let's put it this way: is the Supreme Court going to declare the creation of California unconstitutional? No, that's ridiculous. Its the exact same concept with Puerto Rico.

[Senator Incitatus]

Judicial review, an act by Congress can be struck down by SCrt

Yes, but statehood is a power specifically granted to Congress. There are no grounds by which the Supreme Court can strike down statehood.

Let's put it this way: is the Supreme Court going to declare the creation of California unconstitutional? No, that's ridiculous. Its the exact same concept with Puerto Rico.

Statehood would be unconstitutional if it were done by unconstitutional means.

[Xeuma]

Judicial review, an act by Congress can be struck down by SCrt

Yes, but statehood is a power specifically granted to Congress. There are no grounds by which the Supreme Court can strike down statehood.

Let's put it this way: is the Supreme Court going to declare the creation of California unconstitutional? No, that's ridiculous. Its the exact same concept with Puerto Rico.

Statehood would be unconstitutional if it were done by unconstitutional means.

If a majority of both houses of Congress agree to make some piece of land a state, its a state. So barring McConnell trying to change the rules to make 40 senators a majority, I fail to see how it could be unconstitutional to create a state.

[ursulahx]

He'll be confirmed Saturday unless I'm mistaken.

You are. Steve Daines has decided to spend Saturday at his daughter's wedding.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats are bolstered if Bart is confirmed. If he isn't, it doesn't help anybody.

Perhaps if it was a bit earlier in the cycle, the GOP would gain from him being rejected - it'd obviously fire up the people who were already going to vote but who might not otherwise do anything else (i.e. it will motivate them to donate to candidates and perhaps show up to volunteer in the final weeks) - and it might be having that effect already...but seeing as how the enthusiasm factor isn't on their side this cycle and how close we are to the election, GOP leaners who weren't going to vote beforehand aren't going to be persuaded to show up over this.

Even if they were, the clock is ticking, and a last-minute boost of organizational energy isn't going to make up for months of lagging organizational indicators otherwise.

[GreatTailedGrackle]

The appointment of Kavanaugh is definitely going to help the Democrats, but I think that the net effect of the debate is more likely to help the GOP win the Senate, even with Kavanaugh's confirmation.

This shocked me when I realized it, because as far as I could tell the only people who were strongly supporting Kavanaugh were all Trump supporters, and I couldn't see how the Senate hearing could drive anyone who wasn't.  What I didn't think about were two things: some Trump supporters actually were willing to support Democrats, and #metoo terrifies a lot of people who support Trump only reluctantly.

I have seen several stories more like mine, all from libertarians who didn't like Trump but didn't really want to or really didn't want to vote for Democrats.  But I have seen a roughly equal number of stories from people who claim they voted for Trump only reluctantly and are glad they have Trump instead of any Democratic president, but claim they weren't going to vote and now are.  It appears that the Kavanaugh hearings have converted a fairly small minority of previously independent or right-leaning voters to effectively solid Democrats for the near future, while motivating a roughly equally large and formerly demotivated portion of the GOP base.  Meanwhile the Democratic base was already at peak intensity.

So in the Senate, where the map is highly concentrated in red states where turning out the base is the best strategy for GOP candidates, Kavanaugh helps the GOP.  It probably helps them in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Montana. It probably hurts in purple states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida.  Texas is probably a light enough shade of red that it helps the Democrats with Kavanaugh being confirmed, but I am no longer sure of that; it could go either way here.

I think that most GOP Senators are probably as surprised as I am by this result, but even if I thought that they knew it would pan out this way and this was another surprisingly brilliant but utterly despicable move by Mitch McConnell and friends, I am still horrified by their willingness to put someone like Kavanaugh on the court, especially in the manner that they did, in order to win a Senate seat in North Dakota.

Kavanaugh will be confirmed in a week or two and democrats will surge. Bittersweet, because that does make the court more right wing.... but at least we win the house and maybe even the senate(though that's looking less likely)

I think that, based on how the GOP has acted with SCOTUS since Garland, we’re going to end up with a conservative filling Kennedy’s seat - that’s inevitable to me. I would rather he be confirmed now with the possibility something damning comes out after he’s seated than have it remain up in the air through November the 6th or have someone who is ideologically just as bad sitting in that seat who likely has no chance of being removed. There’s going to be a slaughtering for Democrats in the Senate if this is still a topic on election day and if we let that happen we’re fooling ourselves.

When I see Democrats saying things like this, it makes me very upset.  For me the biggest issue with Kavanaugh is that he is unfit to be a judge at all, his conservatism has absolutely nothing to do with that.  I already know that 50 Republican senators don't see the issues with Kavanaugh.  When Democrats' main complaint is Kavanaugh's views, it makes me wonder how many Democrats see the issue with him either. 

I mean, I prefer liberal judges too, but conservatism alone isn't even enough for me to oppose a judge's confirmation, much less get upset about it. And I get why it might be a slightly bigger deal for partisans, but it still shouldn't be the main thing you are complaining about. When you make it all about his conservatism, it implies that you don't actually understand what's wrong with him, why his confirmation is so unprecedented and horrifying.  It makes me suspect that if Collins' magical thinking results in her vision board coming true, that y'all would turn out to be completely fine with him after all.