The Kavanaugh Effect

[Pyro]

GOPers appear to be adamant in stating how beneficial the Kavanaugh ordeal has been to "firing up the base," and should he be confirmed, they believe that heightened Republican turnout will serve to curtail Democratic gains in Congress and statewide. Several on the boards have remarked that the polls have tightened in the past several days as a direct result of this process. Do you believe there is merit to this argument, and what are your thoughts on Kavanaugh's role in the approaching elections?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The Kavanaugh situation will result in massive pain for Republicans, and massive gain for Democrats.

[Yank2133]

Nope.

Republicans and beltway pundits always spin every news worthy thing that pops up during the campaign as something that will help Republicans.

[Person Man]

It depends. If he's pushed through, he probably galvanizes liberals and makes conservatives complacent. If he falters for whatever reason, it could have the opposite effect. If the process stretches on, I think Republicans will "come back" for a week but will fall back as people get tired of the drama. Especially with the base "getting the tip".

[KingSweden]

I’m skeptical that Kavanaugh helps either party one way or the other. Admittedly this is my stance on most news items/stories

[Mike Thick]

I think that, if the election was held today, it would help Republicans with turnout. The question is
1. How much, and
2. If it lasts for a whole month.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Female voters are already energized to vote Democratic, but  they will vote even more so Democratic than before.

[IceSpear]

I think that, if the election was held today, it would help Republicans with turnout. The question is
1. How much, and
2. If it lasts for a whole month.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, one way to judge whether it's increasing Republican enthusiasm is to...measure it (what a concept).  From the NYT live polling:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1047612657581412358

[Bojack Horseman]

NBC News has a hot take claiming that it's awoken the Republican base and the Democrats' generic ballot advantage has been cut in half. It's just yet another ebb and flow. The vast majority of the voters believe Christine Blasey-Ford. If they didn't, support for Kavanaugh's confirmation would be a lot higher than the 30 range.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yes because of the Senate

[IceSpear]

NBC News has a hot take claiming that it's awoken the Republican base and the Democrats' generic ballot advantage has been cut in half. It's just yet another ebb and flow. The vast majority of the voters believe Christine Blasey-Ford. If they didn't, support for Kavanaugh's confirmation would be a lot higher than the 30 range.

If Kavanaugh's popularity is -10 nationally, what do you think it is in North Dakota or West Virginia?

[new_patomic]

I think we've gotten some better polls for the GOP the last week or so.

In Republican districts or really Republican states, more so than anywhere else.

While Kavanaugh is even more underwater in terms of popularity he seems to have maintained/increased among Republicans and the Fox News crowd. So if you're Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota this is seemingly a really dangerous issue for you, though if you're say Peter Roskam either no bump or even a backlash? It depends on the polarization of the state/district really.

Of course, this is assuming correlation = causation here. Kavanaugh could just be incidental to any bump.

The question in my mind too would be if this sticks for the weeks after either Kavanaugh has been voted down or confirmed.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure I understand why this would just push the GOP base. I would imagine this would fire up both bases, for different reasons

[KingSweden]

Not sure I understand why this would just push the GOP base. I would imagine this would fire up both bases, for different reasons

Yep.

Granted that could reflect asymmetrically, such as in places like ND.

Still, I think the effect is grossly overstated

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not substantial, but there will definitely be an effect on Senate races in particular, or even in driving up turnout of female voters. Most of the time though, it seems like less voters than thought seem to vote based on the Supreme Court. That's assuming that they even care or understand it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not substantial, but there will definitely be an effect on Senate races in particular, or even in driving up turnout of female voters. Most of the time though, it seems like less voters than thought seem to vote based on the Supreme Court. That's assuming that they even care or understand it.

Yes, I think voter motivation based on SCOTUS is very overstated, as shown by some 2016 exit polls.  If voters were presented with a list of issues that were most important to them, with SCOTUS on the list, it was a factor for something like 20% of voters (I'm doing this from memory so these numbers may be a bit off.)  But when asked an open-ended question about what issues motivated them, only about 2% of voters mentioned the Court.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not substantial, but there will definitely be an effect on Senate races in particular, or even in driving up turnout of female voters. Most of the time though, it seems like less voters than thought seem to vote based on the Supreme Court. That's assuming that they even care or understand it.

Yes, I think voter motivation based on SCOTUS is very overstated, as shown by some 2016 exit polls.  If voters were presented with a list of issues that were most important to them, with SCOTUS on the list, it was a factor for something like 20% of voters (I'm doing this from memory so these numbers may be a bit off.)  But when asked an open-ended question about what issues motivated them, only about 2% of voters mentioned the Court.

It's kind of a shame, at least from the perspective of a Democrat, that voters don't care more, especially after the Republican f***ery with Garland. It's importance cannot be understated.

[SnowLabrador]

It will help Republicans greatly, and it already seems to be.

[DabbingSanta]

NBC News has a hot take claiming that it's awoken the Republican base and the Democrats' generic ballot advantage has been cut in half. It's just yet another ebb and flow. The vast majority of the voters believe Christine Blasey-Ford. If they didn't, support for Kavanaugh's confirmation would be a lot higher than the 30 range.

If Kavanaugh's popularity is -10 nationally, what do you think it is in North Dakota or West Virginia?

+25 easily. This is deep "red" America.

[Oryxslayer]

If Kav is behind the bump for reps, it's only magnifying the already large gap between the house and senate. The Dem defense depends on red states where people are more likely to support Kav. Meanwhile, the Rep house battlegrounds are mostly in suburbs, where educated women are already incentivized to move left.

[pbrower2a]

It will have an effect, but what effect will it have?

Sure, Trump is stirring up the base, but the base is not enough for winning elections. Goldwater and McGovern both got their Parties' bases in their blowout losses -- and little else.

Will Democrats be riled up by a Kavanaugh win should the fix be in, or will they recognize such as a catastrophic defeat that signals ruin for their chances this time, in which case Republicans consolidate a majority in the Senate? I can easily imagine the Republicans getting 8-1 majorities on the Supreme Court and making decisions in which Sonia Sotomayor is the sole dissenting vote.

 

[Xing]

If the election were held today, it would probably drive up base turnout even more, which helps Republicans in dark red states (like North Dakota), and Democrats in bluer states. In a month, it's anyone's guess what other stories might be dominating the news.

[SN2903]

It will save the house barely for the GOP and they'll hold the Senate

[Roronoa D. Law]

It will have no impact as keeping American interest on one subject for four weeks is near impossible.