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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  NJ-Vox Pop: Menendez +4
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Author Topic: NJ-Vox Pop: Menendez +4  (Read 818 times)
RoboWop
AMB1996
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« on: October 03, 2018, 11:02:37 am »
« edited: October 03, 2018, 11:11:00 am by AMB1996 »

https://poppolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/NJ-Statewide-Topline-Results-Oct-2018.pdf

Notably, this poll does not include undecideds. The sample is only 62% white and 26% Republican ID. Vox Populi are B-grade pollsters with a +0.2 adjusted Republican bias according to 538.

Menendez 52 – Hugin 48

Highlights:
Menendez +1 with committed voters (36-35)
Menendez +3 among leaners (16-13)

QuestionForAgainstOTHERNET
Hugin Approval312246+9
Menendez Approval244927-29
Trump Approval38584-20
Impeachment5249+3
Kavanaugh Confirm384714-9

Democrats lead by 18 on the generic ballot and 12 on economic issues.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 11:05:59 am »

This is not great.
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RoboWop
AMB1996
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 11:12:04 am »


I'm expecting the Q-poll later to complete the current round of low-single digit leads for Menendez, but I can't say I'm not holding out hope that he's trailing in that one.

This race is now solidly Lean D. Hoping they debate.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 11:13:43 am »

Seeing the dems pick up 4 out of 5 rep house seats while Menendez loses would be a sight to behold.
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Jimmy Butler 2020
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 11:16:34 am »

Seeing the dems pick up 4 out of 5 rep house seats while Menendez loses would be a sight to behold.
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RoboWop
AMB1996
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 11:17:03 am »

Seeing the dems pick up 4 out of 5 rep house seats while Menendez loses would be a sight to behold.

I don't see both happening, but it would be something. I think it's more likely Hugin carries at least one of Lance's or MacArthur's bleeding corpses across the finish line, even if he doesn't win himself. (This also applies to Webber, but I don't consider his campaign a bleeding corpse.)
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 11:27:58 am »

A sample where impeachment is winning and Melendez still only leads by 4? Wow.

Likely D-> Lean D.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 11:29:24 am »

As I've said, I expect Menendez to win by an underwhelming margin, but he's not going to lose, lol.
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Beto/Biden/Allred voter 4 Cornyn's NUT maps
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2018, 11:36:03 am »

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KingSweden
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 11:36:40 am »

As I've said, I expect Menendez to win by an underwhelming margin, but he's not going to lose, lol.
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isoscelessquare
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 11:38:30 am »

Not surprising. I see tons of Hugin and Gottheimer signs in Bergen, but haven't seen a single Menendez sign, Hugin definitely has the momentum going for him, and has closed in on Menendez, but I still expect Menendez to eek it out due to the large registration advantage he has, with Dems outnumbering Republicans by 900,000.
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Skye
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 11:43:12 am »

I'll wait for Quinnipiac, thanks.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2018, 11:47:48 am »

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Cosmopolitanism Will Win
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2018, 11:48:55 am »

This was and remains Likely D.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2018, 11:52:00 am »

Honestly, F Menendez. Want him to win for the sake of stopping the greater evil, but what a slimy politician. I have seen far more Hugin ads btw.
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RoboWop
AMB1996
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2018, 12:51:17 pm »

Not surprising. I see tons of Hugin and Gottheimer signs in Bergen, but haven't seen a single Menendez sign, Hugin definitely has the momentum going for him, and has closed in on Menendez, but I still expect Menendez to eek it out due to the large registration advantage he has, with Dems outnumbering Republicans by 900,000.

Signs mean very little, but I've anecdotally seen two Menendez signs in the entire state. And one is in front of my assemblyman's house.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #16 on: October 03, 2018, 07:00:42 pm »

Honestly, F Menendez. Want him to win for the sake of stopping the greater evil, but what a slimy politician. I have seen far more Hugin ads btw.

I have too, but that's changing. Suddenly a lot of anti-Hugin ads have been popping up. Anyway, I've said enough about this race. I'll sum up my points with this:

As I've said, I expect Menendez to win by an underwhelming margin, but he's not going to lose, lol.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2018, 01:19:56 am »

At least Menendez doesn't seem to be dragging down our House candidates. It's a pivotal state for House gains.
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